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【正文】 y Channel Orders Actual Launch Real Shortage Returns/ Cancellations OverSupply Channel Fill and Phantom Demand Target Launch End of Life True End Customer Demand Units Per Period Time Multiple forecasts and unreliable fulfillment today create the bullwhip effect. 169。 1999 Andersen Consulting 3 Complexity Lead Times Limit Flexibility Little or No Predictability and Poor Product Mix January? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Chronic Capacity Shortages Current Processes and Structures Inhibit Performance Inventory Used to Cover Problems Complications in the Electronics Industry Complexity in Component / Semiconductor Manufacturing ? Mass customization ? Personalization ? Product mix effects
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