【正文】 安德魯：中國政府應(yīng)如何應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)？ 鮑泰利：一旦政府認(rèn)識(shí)到危機(jī)多么嚴(yán)重，它就會(huì)采取迅速和果斷 36 的行動(dòng)。 3 月，全年增長世界銀行預(yù)測為 ％。對(duì) 2021 年底，中國的一個(gè)月的月增長下降接近零數(shù)十年來第一次。這次危機(jī)是如何影響中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的呢？ 鮑泰利：國際金融危機(jī)沖擊中國和世界后，雷曼兄弟立即在 2021年 9 月垮臺(tái)，而中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長已經(jīng)有下滑趨勢強(qiáng)烈了一年多。一位是鮑泰利，高級(jí)中國研究兼職教授約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)，就對(duì)中國金融危機(jī)的影響面試和審查了中國的外交政策和全球地位的影響。這些不斷變化的經(jīng)濟(jì)，提出 了關(guān)于國際貨幣體系的未來問題的東道國，中國崛起，在亞太地區(qū)對(duì)美國霸權(quán)的未來。后續(xù)的危機(jī)，主要是在美國抵押貸款市場中出現(xiàn)的，已對(duì)亞洲的出口導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)體，包括中國產(chǎn)生了很大的影響。s fastestgrowing large consumer market—but that GDP grew even faster, causing the consumption/GDP ratio to fall to a very low level (under 36% in 2021). On the supply side, the government has ordered largescale restructuring plans for major industrial subsectors such as steel, nonferrous metals, automobiles, plate glass, chemicals, cement, and textiles, but implementation of such plans will be difficult because 34 of likely opposition from vested interests. The export lobby, which includes many local governments in eastern provinces, and industry groups have considerable power. Andrew: Several observers of the SinoUS relationship have argued that China39。s overall fiscal position was very strong. After 10 years of intensive reforms, Chinese banks were in good shape and had ample liquidity. The government, at all levels, had much relevant experience with stimulus programs from the years following the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis. Andrew: What is the likelihood that the current, stimulusinduced 32 growth pattern that has spurred this recovery will continue? Bottelier: At this point, growth remains heavily dependent on stimulus induced investment, which is clearly not sustainable, but in the third quarter of 2021 we are seeing more and more indications of a broaderbased recovery. Nonstate investment began to pick up significantly, the property sector is booming again, and consumer confidence has returned as business confidence is rising. Credit expansion slowed after June 2021. Consumer demand remains surprisingly strong. Andrew: What could happen if China does not adjust its stimulus spending? Bottelier: The enormous credit expansion since December 2021 not only has financed statesponsored investment but also has led to excess liquidity in the corporate sector and in the economy at large. Excess liquidity contributed to rapid increases in land and urban real estate prices in some cities, to increased (unsupervised) financial intermediation in gray money markets at higher rates of interest, increased speculation in the stock market, and increased corruption. If nonfinancial enterprises with excess liquidity can profit from financial operations more easily than in their core business, there is a risk that a corporatebased shadow banking system will develop, as happened in the United States in precrisis years. In China39。s stimulus, to date, has been relatively successful. To what do you attribute this success? For instance, were there strong fundamentals in the Chinese economy that contributed to the success of the stimulus? Bottelier: China was in a strong position to launch its stimulus program and the program was highly effective for the following reasons: Because the economy was not overleveraged, as in the United States, all stimulus spending immediately translated into incremental aggregate demand。s economy was essentially stagnating, but there was hope that a rebound could be engineered relatively quickly. In March the World Bank predicted % growth for the year as a whole. Thus, though the crisis has been painful, particularly in terms of declining exports and unemployment, China has been weathering the economic storm fairly well. Andrew: How did the Chinese government react to the crisis? Bottelier: Once the government realized how serious the crisis was, it took swift and decisive action. In early November 2021, Beijing announced plans for a major economic stimulus program and began preparing many other measures to counter the socioeconomic effects of the recession. Andrew: Was China39。s growth had already been trending down strongly for 30 over a year. The downward trend was the result of domestic measures aimed at cooling the overheating economy (starting in the third quarter of 2021) and at fighting urban real estate bubbles. Toward the end of 2021, China39。A presents an interview by Asia Policy ’s editor, Andrew Marble, with Pieter Bottelier, senior adjunct professor of China Studies at Johns Hopkins University, on the impacts of the financial crisis on China and examines the implications for China39。 謝謝大家對(duì)我的幫助。其對(duì)工作認(rèn)真負(fù)責(zé)、有條不紊、實(shí)事求是的態(tài)度，給我留下了深刻的印象，使我受益終生。在他的悉心指導(dǎo)下，我不僅接受了全新的思想觀念，領(lǐng)會(huì)了基本的思考方式，掌 握了通用的研究方法，同時(shí)還明白了許多待人接物與為人處世的道理。在論文的寫作過程中，何昀教授給了我許許多多的關(guān)懷和幫助。 26 參考文獻(xiàn) [1]王琨 .美國次貸危機(jī)陰影下中國的選擇 [J].經(jīng)濟(jì) ,2021,(12):3840. [2] 吳群 . 金 融 危 機(jī) 對(duì) 我 國 中 小 企 業(yè) 的 影 響 [J]. 審計(jì) 與 經(jīng) 濟(jì) 研究 ,2021,(6):109112. [3] 中國期刊網(wǎng) . 金融危機(jī)對(duì)中小企業(yè)發(fā)展影響分析 [DB/OL]. 0/， 2021226 [4]李向陽 .國際金融危機(jī)與國際貿(mào)易、國際金融秩序的發(fā)展方向 [J].經(jīng)濟(jì)研究， 2021，（ 11） :6771. [5]張明 .美國次貸危機(jī)的深化及中國的對(duì)策 [J].國際經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論， 2021，（ 11） :4954. [6]吳易鳳，王晗霞 .克魯格曼論金 融危機(jī)、經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)和自由市場原教旨主義 [J].理論經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)， 2021，（ 12） :8390. [7]Paul Economics Returns[N].The New York Times,20211114(8). [8]中國中小企業(yè)河南網(wǎng) . 金融危機(jī)下 專家建議出口企業(yè)去美國 找機(jī)會(huì) [DB/OL]. 20211202. [9]劉琦波 .中小企業(yè)的作用不容忽視 [J].經(jīng)濟(jì)， 2021， (12):8687. [10]李增廣 .金融危機(jī)對(duì)中國出口貿(mào)易的影響及建議 [J].經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理，2021，（ 12） :7783. [11]富彩萍 .金融危機(jī)下中小企業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及應(yīng)對(duì)措施 [J].經(jīng)濟(jì)論 27 壇 ,2021,(11):5960. [12]Paul Policy Despair[N].The New York Times,20210322(6). [13]邱云波 .次貸危機(jī)的成因、影響及對(duì)中國金融業(yè)的啟示 [J].經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理 ,2021,(1):7073 [14] 馬紅漫 .經(jīng)歷 ―騰籠換鳥 ‖陣痛 [J].中國中小企業(yè)， 2021，（ 7） :6367. [15]李俊 ,王立 .美國次貸危機(jī)對(duì)中國出口的影響及應(yīng)對(duì)策略 [J].國際貿(mào)易 ,2021,(8):5257. 28 致 謝 本文從擬定題目到定稿，歷時(shí)大半年的時(shí)間。 總之，每個(gè)人都應(yīng)該積極起來面對(duì)危機(jī)。雖然企業(yè)遭遇了前所未有的沖擊，但各國政府也開始了前所未有的救市行動(dòng)。然而在 危機(jī)來臨的時(shí)候，都回轉(zhuǎn)向理性消費(fèi)，這樣的變化必然導(dǎo)致市場格局的重新改變。第二，理性消費(fèi)。中國大部分的企業(yè)已經(jīng)習(xí)慣了高增長的狀態(tài)，已經(jīng)習(xí)慣了依靠不斷投入換取增長績效。然而我們?cè)诖似D難的環(huán)境之下更要堅(jiān)定信念、適應(yīng)環(huán)境、度過難關(guān)。第三，堅(jiān)定信念是實(shí)現(xiàn)增長的