【正文】 the probability of an accident to occur is independent from the occurrence of previous accidents。possibilities Abstraet：Accident statistics, especially collected at a national level are particularly useful for the description, monitoring and prognosis of accident developments, the detection of positive and negative safety developments, the definition of safety targets and the(product)evaluation of long term and large scale safety application of accident analysis is strongly limited for problem analysis, prospective and retrospective safety analysis on newly developed traffic systems or safety measures, as well as for(process)evaluation of special short term and small scale safety is an urgent need for the analysis of accidents in real time, in bination with background behavioural incident detection, bined with video recording of accidents may soon result in financially acceptable type of research may eventually lead to a better understanding of the concept of risk in traffic and to wellestablished paper is primarily based on personal experience concerning traffic safety, safety research and the role of accidents analysis in this experiences resulted in rather philosophical opinions as well as more practical viewpoints on research methodology and statistical number of these findings are published already this lack of direct observation of accidents, a number of methodological problems arise, leading to continuous discussions about the interpretation of findings that cannot be tested a fruitful discussion of these methodological problems it is very informative to look at a real accident on then turns out that most of the relevant information used to explain the accident will be missing in the accident studies also cannot recollect all the data that is necessary in order to test hypotheses about the occurrence of the a particular carcar accident, that was recorded on video at an urban intersection in the Netherlands, between a car ing from a minor road, colliding with a car on the major road, the following questions could be asked:Why did the driver of the car ing from the minor road, suddenly accelerate after ing almost to a stop and hit the side of the car from the left at the main road? Why was the approaching car not noticed? Was it because the driver was preoccupied with the two cars ing from the right and the gap before them that offered him the possibility to cross? Did he look left before, but was his view possibly blocked by the green van parked at the corner? Certainly the traffic situation was not the moment of the accident there were no 5bicyclists or pedestrians present to distract his attention at the regularly overcrowded parked green van disappeared within five minutes, the two other cars that may have been important left without a is hardly possible to observe traffic behaviour under the most relevant condition of an accident occurring, because accidents are very rare events, given the large number of the new video equipment and the recent developments in automatic incident and accident detection, it bees more and more realistic to collect such data at not too high to this type of data that is most essential for a good understanding of the risk increasing factors in traffic, it also important to look at normal traffic behaviour as a reference question about the possibilities and limitations of accident analysis is not lightly cannot speak unambiguously about accident analysis covers a whole range of activities, each originating from a different background and based on different sources of information: national data banks, additional information from other sources, specially collected accident data, behavioural background data answer the question about the possibilities and limitations, we first have to look at the cycle of activities in the area of traffic of these activities are mainly concerned with the safety management of the traffic system, some others are primarily research following steps should be distinguished:description of the problem and its main characteristics。concerned。describe。原文出處：SWOV institute for road safety research Leidschendam（會(huì)議記錄），記錄者， AND LIMITATIONS OF ACCIDENTANALYSIS Keyword：Consequences。這種類(lèi)型的事故分析是通過(guò)分析事故的共組或子群來(lái)開(kāi)展。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的數(shù)學(xué)公式，我們需要一個(gè)明確的概率空間的介紹，基本事件（的情況），可能導(dǎo)致事故組成，每個(gè)類(lèi)型的事件的概率，最終收在一次事故中，最后的具體成果，損失，鑒于事故的類(lèi)型。雖然這些方面不能獨(dú)立研究從理論的角度看，它也從由此產(chǎn)生的結(jié)果的優(yōu)勢(shì)，區(qū)分交通情況有潛在危險(xiǎn)的數(shù)字，是由有一個(gè)意外的可能性，在這種潛在的危險(xiǎn)局勢(shì)，給定一個(gè)特定事故。一般來(lái)說(shuō)，可分為以下幾個(gè)方面：考慮到交通系統(tǒng)，交通量和組成國(guó)家，道路使用者，他們的速度，天氣條件下，路面情況，車(chē)輛，道路使用者和他們的相互作用的演習(xí)，意外可以或無(wú)法預(yù)防。雖然研究人員主要是在事故處理領(lǐng)導(dǎo)有興趣，他幾乎完全信息的后果，它的產(chǎn)品，意外。有系統(tǒng)的控制實(shí)驗(yàn)手段研究只對(duì)問(wèn)題方面的可能，而不是問(wèn)題本身。因此這不是科學(xué)獨(dú)特的，也有一個(gè)間接的研究對(duì)象的研究更多的例子。一個(gè)在交通意外的過(guò)程，結(jié)果是，該實(shí)際發(fā)生是由研究者未落觀測(cè)研究的主要問(wèn)題。然而研究人員的興趣較少集中在這個(gè)最后的結(jié)果本身，而是多在進(jìn)程更多的結(jié)果（或不結(jié)果）的事故。交通安全的研究是有關(guān)的事故及其后果的發(fā)生。它會(huì)嘗試檢測(cè)安全問(wèn)題需要特別注意。工資保障運(yùn)動(dòng)的一個(gè)計(jì)算機(jī)程序。最后一個(gè)選項(xiàng)是沒(méi)有發(fā)現(xiàn)在許多統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件包。分析的單位是從數(shù)到廣義加權(quán)計(jì)數(shù)。投入更多關(guān)注的是參數(shù)估計(jì)。和2。另外，在雙向表，卡方總可以分解成零件表互動(dòng)的作用。Foldvary和Lane（1974），在衡量強(qiáng)制佩戴安全帶的效果，誰(shuí)是最早應(yīng)用于值的4路表高階相互作用的總卡方分配的。我們將討論這個(gè)事故類(lèi)型分析更詳細(xì)的內(nèi)容。從一個(gè)給定趨勢(shì)的偏差也可以進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)新的事件。根據(jù)數(shù)年的事故序列，能夠分析出它的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，并大致預(yù)測(cè)以后幾年的事故數(shù)量。分析那些假設(shè)的基礎(chǔ)上描述的測(cè)試程序的類(lèi)型及其優(yōu)點(diǎn)。一旦均值和方差的正態(tài)分布，給出了所有的測(cè)試可以改寫(xiě)了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)零均值和方差的正態(tài)分布條件。這種測(cè)試是相當(dāng)麻煩的，因?yàn)槊總€(gè)特定的情況下，每一個(gè)不同的泊松參數(shù)，即，對(duì)所有可能結(jié)果的概率必須計(jì)算應(yīng)用測(cè)試。該程序的描述，也可以使用，如果發(fā)生意外乃根據(jù)數(shù)的特點(diǎn)找到有前途的安全目標(biāo)。在許多地方情況下，一個(gè)應(yīng)用程序是不可能的。由于主要關(guān)注的是，以減少意外的發(fā)生，這種分析可能導(dǎo)致對(duì)治療中最有前途的領(lǐng)域。這可能是一個(gè)時(shí)間上的差異，或不同的地方或不同的條件。它已經(jīng)應(yīng)用于許多情況，數(shù)的差異表明在安全性的差異然后確定是否發(fā)生意外。這是一個(gè)相當(dāng)強(qiáng)大的統(tǒng)計(jì)過(guò)程。這一假設(shè)可以通過(guò)估算進(jìn)行測(cè)試的兩個(gè)觀測(cè)值的基礎(chǔ)上（估計(jì)是兩個(gè)值的平均值）的速度參數(shù)。例如，對(duì)比在一年中特定的一天例如下一天，下一個(gè)星期的一天發(fā)生的交通事故。對(duì)于這些時(shí)期的總和泊松率則等于為這些地方的泊松率的總和。其性質(zhì)是根據(jù)理論的假設(shè)。穿越空間或在不同地點(diǎn)發(fā)生的的事故同樣具有可能性。傷亡人數(shù)往往與同一事故有關(guān)，因此，獨(dú)立性假設(shè)不成立。在某些情況下，有一個(gè)直接的因果鏈（例如，大量的車(chē)開(kāi)到一起）這一系列的事故被認(rèn)為是一個(gè)個(gè)體事故但包含許多的車(chē)。第一個(gè)假設(shè)與大多數(shù)的批判不符。2．事故的性質(zhì)和它們的統(tǒng)計(jì)特性事故基本概念是意外，不管是其發(fā)生的原因還是引起事故出現(xiàn)的過(guò)程。這適用于事故分析中的交通安全領(lǐng)域。信息的主要來(lái)源是國(guó)家數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)及其統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)處理系統(tǒng)。政治家們希望只是因?yàn)榧?xì)節(jié)決定行動(dòng)。研究人員研究事故發(fā)生時(shí)一連串事件中每個(gè)人的興趣。他們對(duì)事故的看法往往都是一視同仁，因?yàn)榭偟慕Y(jié)果比整個(gè)事故中的每個(gè)人的因素重要。很多關(guān)于分析結(jié)果的方法的討論由于忽視之間的區(qū)別而成為徒勞的。我們用事故分析來(lái)描述這一階段。應(yīng)該用下面的步驟來(lái)加以區(qū)分： ——檢測(cè)交通安全問(wèn)題；——描述問(wèn)題和它的主要特征； ——分析其原因分析和改進(jìn)建議； ——選擇和執(zhí)行安全措施； ——評(píng)價(jià)所采取的措施。因?yàn)槭鹿史治龊w了每一個(gè)活動(dòng)中的不同背景，并根據(jù)不同的信息來(lái)源范圍來(lái)補(bǔ)充資料，特別是收集事故的數(shù)據(jù)，背景資料等，我們首先要看看在交通安全領(lǐng)域的活動(dòng)周期然后再回答事故分析的可能性與限制。必要的增加數(shù)據(jù)類(lèi)型也能更好的解釋交通中存在的危險(xiǎn)因素。在事故發(fā)生的相關(guān)條件下，幾乎不可能觀察下一個(gè)交通行為，因?yàn)榻煌ㄊ鹿适遣豢深A(yù)見(jiàn)的。目前這個(gè)事故中沒(méi)有騎自行車(chē)或行人在擁擠路口分散他的注意。深入研究還無(wú)法回憶起所有的必要的用來(lái)測(cè)試有關(guān)事