中國銀行深度研究報(bào)告(參考版)
2025-03-26 04:30本頁面
【正文】 圖表 2中國銀行利潤表預(yù)測(cè)（百萬元）2004 2005 2006F 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F利息收入128,903167,345200,938240,783261,362284,196317,484利息支出43,91866,94085,523102,861118,391132,255147,269凈利息收入84,985100,405115,416137,922142,970151,942170,214手續(xù)費(fèi)及傭金收支凈額8,5579,24711,19112,19813,88915,77717,615凈交易收入8,7524,4821,1122,6995,7885,9626,141投資(損失)/收益1,0782481,0174242,0532,1011,520其他業(yè)務(wù)收支凈額1,3652,1422,9673,4833,3552,1761,088營業(yè)收入104,737116,028129,477156,726168,056177,957196,579業(yè)務(wù)及管理費(fèi) 41,915 45,604 48,594 51,673 56,382 58,800 61,071營業(yè)稅金及附加4,9815,6807,4258,8549,63410,49911,728營業(yè)利潤57,84164,74473,45896,199102,040108,658123,779營業(yè)外收支凈額5321,381467扣除資產(chǎn)減值損失前利58,373 66,125 73,925 96,199 102,040 108,658 123,779潤總額資產(chǎn)減值損失23,79710,98510,8247,3208,9569,77012,308利潤總額34,57655,14063,10288,87993,08498,888111,470所得稅9,33022,54322,08631,10832,57934,61139,015稅后利潤25,24632,59741,01657,77160,50464,27772,456少數(shù)股東應(yīng)享本年利潤4,3145,1055,3025,5085,7215,9446,175凈利潤20,93227,49235,71452,26454,78358,33366,280圖表 2中國銀行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表預(yù)測(cè)（百萬元）2004 2005 2006F 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F現(xiàn)金28,59228,64432,41633,91234,71735,57636,982貴金屬29,27130,31434,30635,88936,74137,65139,138存放中央銀行284,348316,941371,172415,143467,446523,540580,072存出發(fā)鈔基金38,44035,58636,27236,76636,20836,41536,463交易性及其他公允價(jià)值變91,012 107,271 124,928 137,239 146,914 159,987 165,198動(dòng)計(jì)入損益的債券衍生金融產(chǎn)品資產(chǎn)16,07616,80815,34916,07816,07815,83515,997存放及拆放同業(yè)347,379344,537311,351340,666375,534412,930450,618債券投資1,218,4671,562,3201,819,4811,998,7822,139,6902,330,0822,405,989貸款2,146,4622,235,0462,451,5142,777,8903,172,4523,628,3134,152,366減：貸款損失準(zhǔn)備74,76983,15387,77689,61893,27697,840105,004應(yīng)收利息15,10120,40822,38525,36528,96733,13037,915股權(quán)投資8,07415,39313,57414,99416,51418,03419,555固定資產(chǎn)76,58672,97868,46865,02867,07062,23957,169在建工程2,7163,3426,2067,9702,7793,1912,697遞延稅款借項(xiàng)19,62817,56119,43918,74818,38918,08818,379其他資產(chǎn)23,06018,81018,23517,66117,08616,51115,937資產(chǎn)總計(jì)4,270,4434,742,8065,257,3205,852,5116,483,3107,233,6817,929,470對(duì)中央銀行負(fù)債69,59730,05528,39034,15735,36842,01343,530發(fā)行貨幣債務(wù)38,57035,73136,37936,89336,33436,53636,588衍生金融產(chǎn)品及公允價(jià)值93,76091,174變動(dòng)計(jì)入損益的負(fù)債78,63787,85785,88984,12885,958同業(yè)存入及拆入248,846345,233326,107392,352406,256482,594500,019客戶存款3,342,4773,703,7774,124,1304,612,7015,193,8465,817,1086,445,248應(yīng)付利息22,67427,02430,09133,65637,89642,44447,027借入專項(xiàng)資金69,54952,16449,62249,62249,62249,62249,622發(fā)行債券26,25360,17960,17760,17760,17960,17960,179遞延稅款貸項(xiàng)981184204196193190193其他負(fù)債124,998134,665124,044118,257112,470112,470112,470負(fù)債合計(jì)4,037,7054,480,1864,857,7815,425,8696,018,0536,727,2817,380,833少數(shù)股東權(quán)益27,38728,77830,89933,10235,39137,76840,238股東權(quán)益股本186,390209,427253,839253,839253,839253,839253,839資本公積3,97878,91178,91178,91178,91178,911盈余公積3,1405,9879,55814,78520,26326,09632,724一般準(zhǔn)備及法定儲(chǔ)備金4195,10916,54327,97739,41144,71450,810未分配利潤17,37312,58519,00833,70649,66473,527100,571可供出售債券公允價(jià)值變動(dòng)儲(chǔ)備2,315 1,380 9,219 15,677 12,220 8,456 8,456外幣報(bào)表折算差額3441,864股東權(quán)益合計(jì)205,351233,842368,640393,540429,867468,631508,400負(fù)債和股東權(quán)益總計(jì)4,270,4434,742,8065,257,3205,852,5116,483,3107,233,6817,929,470圖表 2中國銀行現(xiàn)金流量表預(yù)測(cè)（百萬元）將凈利潤調(diào)整為經(jīng)營活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流 2004 2005 2006F 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F凈利潤20,93227,49235,71452,26454,78358,33366,280加/(減):少數(shù)股東應(yīng)享本年利潤4
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