決策建模培訓(xùn)教材-wenkub.com
2025-01-11 19:41 本頁(yè)面
【正文】 ? （ 3）先小規(guī)模生產(chǎn)，三年后若銷路好再擴(kuò)建，追加投資 400萬(wàn)元，經(jīng)營(yíng) 7年，獲利 250萬(wàn)元 /年。 ? （ 1）大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)，投資 500萬(wàn)元。 States of Nature Alternatives State 1 State 2 Alternative 1 Oute 1 Oute 2 Alternative 2 Oute 3 Oute 4 The same example HP Low M BD BA Medium High Completed decision tree (payoff and probability) 15 10 55 10 30 25 5 20 40 Low Medium High Low Medium High Decision Table I: without probability Future sales level Decision Low Medium High Manufacture (M) 15 10 55 Buy domestic (BD) 10 30 25 Buy abroad (BA) 5 20 40 Table 21 Decision table: profit contribution ($000s) Decision Table II: without probability (transposed) Table 22 Transposed decision table: profit contribution ($000s) Decision Future sales level Manufacture (M) Buy domestic (BD) Buy abroad (BA) Low 15 10 5 Medium 10 30 20 High 55 25 40 Decision Table III: with probability and payoff Table 23 Decision table: probability and payoff ($000s) Decision Future sales level Probability Manufacture (M) Buy domestic (BD) Buy abroad (BA) Low 15 10 5 Medium 10 30 20 High 55 25 40 EMV: expected moary value Decision Future sales level Probability Manufacture (M) Buy domestic (BD) Buy abroad (BA) Low 15 10 5 Medium 10 30 20 High 55 25 40 EMV 23 EMV with perfect information ? What is the decision with perfect information? Decision Future sales level Probability Manufacture (M) Buy domestic (BD) Buy abroad (BA) Low 15 10 5 Medium 10 30 20 High 55 25 40 ?The EMV with perfect information is : 10?+ 30?+ 55?= 應(yīng)用舉例 ? 應(yīng)用 1：二種概率的決策問(wèn)題 ? 應(yīng)用 2：二階段的決策問(wèn)題 應(yīng)用 1：二種概率的決策問(wèn)題 ? 某市屬建筑公司面臨 A和 B兩項(xiàng)工程的投標(biāo)，因受本單位資源條件限制，只能選擇其中一項(xiàng)工程投標(biāo)或者這兩項(xiàng)過(guò)程均不參加投標(biāo)。一旦做出了決策，決策就定下來(lái)了，我們沒(méi)法在后來(lái)去“不做”這個(gè)決策。 影響確定 影響不確定 影響圖及構(gòu)造它們的 各種圖形和線條的含義 1： A B 圖一：決策 A關(guān)系到事件 B發(fā)生的概率 A B 圖二：事件 A關(guān)系到事件 B發(fā)生的概率 影響圖及構(gòu)造它們的 各種圖形和線條的含義 2： ?用來(lái)連接節(jié)點(diǎn)的 虛線箭頭 只用來(lái)指向決策，表示作出決策是基于來(lái)自前面節(jié)點(diǎn)的結(jié)果的知識(shí)。 A3:出國(guó)留學(xué) ? A2:讀博 A1:找工作 Decision Problem Alternatives States of Nature Outes 1) 影響圖 (influence diagram) ? 影響圖 (influence diagram)是模型的圖形表示，它用于支持模型設(shè)計(jì)、開(kāi)發(fā)和理解。 例 3：優(yōu)化模型 經(jīng)濟(jì)訂貨批量 (Economic Order Quantity) 例
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