山西省煤炭出口貿(mào)易國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力分析張軍凱-資料下載頁(yè)
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【正文】 uence in determining the petitive rules of the game as well as the strategies potentially available to the firm. Forces outside the industry are significant primarily in a relative sense。 since outside forces usually affect all firms in the industry, the key is found in the differing abilities of firms to deal with them. The intensity of petition in an industry is neither a matter of coincidence nor bad luck. Rather, petition in an industry is rooted in its underlying economic structure and goes well beyond the behavior of current petitors. The state of petition in an industry depends on five basic petitive forces. The collective strength of these forces determines the ultimate profit potential in the industry, where profit potential is measured in terms of long run return on invested capital. Not all industries have the same potential. They differ fundamentally in their ultimate profit potential as the collective strength of the forces differs。 the forces range from intense in industries like tires, paper, and steel—where no firm earns spectacular returns—to relatively mild in industries like oilfield equipment and services, cosmetics, and toiletries—where high returns are quite mon. This chapter will be concerned with identifying the key structural features of industries that determine the strength of the petitive forces and hence industry profitability. The goal of petitive strategy for a business unit in an industry is to find a position in the industry where the pany can best defend itself against these petitive forces or can influence them in its favor. Since the collective strength of the forces may well be painfully apparent to all petitors, the key for developing strategy is to delve below the surface and analyze the sources of each. Knowledge of these under lying sources of petitive pressure highlights the critical strengths and weaknesses of the pany, animates its positioning in its industry, clarifies the areas where strategic changes may yield the greatest payoff, and highlights the areas where industry trends promise to hold the greatest significance as either opportunities or threats. Understanding these sources will also prove to be useful in considering areas for diversification, though the primary focus here is on strategy in individual industries. Structural analysis is the fundamental underpinning for formulating petitive strategy and a key building block for most of the concepts in this book.Let us adopt the working definition of an industry as the group of firms producing products that are close substitutes for each other. In practice there is often a great deal of controversy over the appropriate definition, centering around how close substitutability needs to be in terms of product, process, or geographic market boundaries. Because we will be in a better position to treat these issues once the basic concept of structural analysis has been introduced, we will assume initially that industry boundaries have already been drawn.Competition in an industry continually works to drive down the rate of return on invested capital toward the petitive floor rate of return, or the return that would be earned by the economist39。s perfectly petitive industry. This petitive floor, or free market return, is approximated by the yield on longterm govern ment securities adjusted upward by the risk of capital loss. Investors will not tolerate returns below this rate in the long run because of their alternative of investing in other industries, and firms habitually earning less than this return will eventually go out of business. The presence of rates of return higher than the adjusted free market re turn serves to stimulate the inflow of capital into an industry either through new entry or through additional investment by existing petitors. The strength of the petitive forces in an industry determines the degree to which this inflow of investment occurs and drives the return to the free market level, and thus the ability of firms to sustain aboveaverage returns.The five petitive forces—entry, threat of substitution, bar gaining power of buyers, bargaining power of suppliers, and rivalry among current petitors—reflect the fact that petition in an industry goes well beyond the established players. Customers, sup pliers, substitutes, and potential entrants are all petitors to firms in the industry and may be more or less prominent depending on the particular circumstances. Competition in this broader sense might be termed extended rivalry.All five petitive forces jointly determine the intensity of industry petition and profitability, and the strongest force or forces are governing and bee crucial from the point of view of strategy formulation. For example, even a pany with a very strong market position in an industry where potential entrants are no threat will earn low returns if it faces a superior, lowercost substitute. Even with no substitutes and blocked entry, intense rivalry among existing petitors will limit potential returns. The extreme case of petitive intensity is the economist39。s perfectly petitive industry, where entry is free, existing firms have no bargaining power against suppliers and customers, and rivalry is unbridled be cause the numerous firms and products are all alike.Different forces take on prominence, of course, in shaping petition in each industry. In the oceangoing tanker industry the key force is probably the buyers (the major oil panies), whereas in tires it is powerful original equipment (OEM) buyers coupled with tough petitors. In the steel industry the key forces are foreign petitors and substitute materials.The underlying structure of an industry, reflected in the strength of the forces, should be distinguished from the many shortrun factors that can affect petition and profitability in a transient way. For example, fluctuations in economic conditions over the business cycle influence the shortrun profitability of nearly all firms in
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