【正文】 中心，而進入90年代中后期，尤其是21世紀以來，亞洲成為全球金融不穩(wěn)定的中心區(qū)域。全球金融脆弱性的洲際來源發(fā)生明顯的轉移，亞洲成為全球金融重心，同時也成為全球金融風險的主要來源地。四、我們的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)六七十年代是近50年來國際金融體系穩(wěn)健性最好的時期，而九五時期是全球金融體系最為不穩(wěn)定的時期。六七十年代的金融體系穩(wěn)健性明顯的好于現(xiàn)在。五、中國金融體系穩(wěn)健性經歷了脆弱－穩(wěn)定－脆弱的周期性變化，中國實際上已經發(fā)生了兩次隱性的金融危機。第一次發(fā)生在1989年前后，第二次發(fā)生在1997年前后，2000年第二季度達到谷底，金融穩(wěn)健性指數降至歷史第二低水平，金融體系又一次陷入困境。近年來，中國采取了一系列措施來改革金融體系，并已經取得初步成效，但是問題依然比較嚴峻。六、金融系統(tǒng)性風險的演變具有明顯的周期性和階段性特征，金融穩(wěn)?。鹑诖嗳醯难葑冘壽E好像一條正弦曲線或者余弦曲線。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，金融穩(wěn)定－金融脆弱的周期大約為10－12年，這與國際上的一些研究結果是比較一致的。參考文獻1. Allen, F. and D. Gale. 2002 “Financial Fragility.”, Working Paper No. 01–37, Wharton Financial Institutions Center, University of at 2. Aykut Kibritcioglu, Excessive RiskTaking, Banking Sector Fragility, and Banking Crises, , 2002, Working Paper Series 266, Available at 3. Bergman, U. M. and J. Hansen, “ Financial Instability and Monetary Policy: The Swedish Evidence”, Sveriges Risksbank Working Paper Series June.，2002, B. and M. “Financial Fragility and Economic Performance.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 105(1): 87–114., John, and Gianni de Nicol243。, 2003, “Bank Risk Taking and Competition Revisited,” IMF Working Paper 03/114 (Washington: International Monetary Fund)., Shen。 MengFen, Hsieh。 Capital Inflows and Banking VulnerabilityAcrossCountry Comparison, Journal of Financial Studies, , December 2000(140). , Giancarlo, Paulo Resenti, and Nouriel Roubini, 1998, “Paper Tigers? A Model of the Asian Crisis,” NBER Working Paper No. 6783.8. Crockett, Andrew, 1997. “Why Is Financial Stability a Goal of Public Policy?” pp. 7–36 in Maintaining Financial Stability in a Global Economy: Proceedings of A Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming.9. Das, Udaibir S., Nigel Davies, and Richard Podpiera, 2003, “Insurance and Issues in Financial Soundness,” IMF Working Paper 03/138.10. Das, Udaibir S., and Marc Quintyn, 2002, “Crisis Prevention and Crisis Management: The Role of Regulatory Governance,” in Financial Sector Governance: the Role of the Public and Private Sectors, ed. by R. Litan, M. Pomerleano and V. Sundararajan,(Washington: Brookings Institution)., Owen, Alfredo M. Leone, Mahinder Gill, and Paul Hilbers, 2000, Macroprudential Indicators of Financial System Soundness, IMF Occasional Paper No. 192. Stability Forum, 2002, “Review of Vulnerabilities and Efforts to Strengthen the International Financial System.”Available at J. Schinasi Defining Financial Stability, IMF Working Paper International Capital Markets Department,October 2004, P. 1997. “Banking System Failures in Developing and Transition Countries: Diagnosis and Prediction.” Bank for International Settlements Working Paper No. 39.15. International Monetary Fund, 2003, “Financial Soundness Indicators,” Available via the Internet:, O., 2003, “Monetary and Financial Stability: Is there a TradeOff?” in Monetary Stability, Financial Stability and the Business Cycle: Five views. BIS Papers No. 18, (Basel: Bank for International Settlements)., Christopher, and Guy Debelle, 1999, “Trends in Australian Banking System:Implications for Financial System Stability and Monetary Policy,” Research Discusion Paper (Reserve Bank of Australia).18. Large, Andrew, 2003, “Basel II and Systemic Stability,” paper presented at the Basel IICAD 3 Conference, London, March.19 Michael D. Bordo, Michael J. Dueker和David C. Wheelock “Aggregate price shocks and financial instability: an historical analysis”, NBER Working Paper , 2000.20 Michael Francis ,2003,Governance and Financial Fragility:Evidence from a CrossSection of Countries,Bank of Canada Working Paper 200334, Frederic, 1991, “Anatomy of A Financial Crisis,” NBER Working Paper No. 3934.22. Mishkin, Frederic, 1997, “The Causes and Propagation of Financial Instability: Lessons for olicymakers,” in Maintaining Financial Stability in a Global Economy. A symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole,Wyoming., V., Charles A. Enoch, Armida San Jose, Paul L. Hilbers, Russell C. Krueger, Marina Moretti, and Graham L. Slack, 2002, Financial Soundness Indicators: Analytical Aspects and Country Practices, IMF, Occasional Paper No. 212. , K., 2002, “Systemic Financial Risk and Macroprudential Supervision,” paper presented at the Bocconi University Centennial Conference on “Risk and Stability in the Financial System: What Roles for Regulators, Management, and Market Discipline?” ,Marc Quintyn and Kina Chenard(2004),Does regulatory governance matter for financial system stability ? an empirical analysis, IMF working paper,WP/04/89.26．曹榮湘主編，《風險與金融安排》，社會科學文獻出版社，2004年27．黃金老，金融自由化與金融脆弱性，中國金融出版社，2001。28．劉錫良等，中國經濟轉軌時期金融安全問題研究，中國金融出版社，2004。29．普拉薩德，羅高夫，魏尚進，柯賽著，金融全球化對發(fā)展中國家的影響：實證研究結果，中國金融出版社，國際貨幣基金組織，200430．全球金融穩(wěn)定報告，國際貨幣基金組織、中國金融出版社，2003－2005年各期。31．伍志文，金融脆弱性：理論及基于中國的經驗分析，《經濟評論》2003年第1期。32．孫立堅等，金融體系的脆弱性不會影響經濟增長嗎？——來自對中國案例實證分析的答案，復旦大學金融研究院，網址：33．沈中華、謝孟芬, 1999， 事件風險： 以貨幣危機及銀行危機為例，企銀季刊，23卷第三期，117 24 / 24