【正文】 中心，而進(jìn)入90年代中后期，尤其是21世紀(jì)以來，亞洲成為全球金融不穩(wěn)定的中心區(qū)域。全球金融脆弱性的洲際來源發(fā)生明顯的轉(zhuǎn)移，亞洲成為全球金融重心，同時(shí)也成為全球金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要來源地。四、我們的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)六七十年代是近50年來國際金融體系穩(wěn)健性最好的時(shí)期，而九五時(shí)期是全球金融體系最為不穩(wěn)定的時(shí)期。六七十年代的金融體系穩(wěn)健性明顯的好于現(xiàn)在。五、中國金融體系穩(wěn)健性經(jīng)歷了脆弱－穩(wěn)定－脆弱的周期性變化，中國實(shí)際上已經(jīng)發(fā)生了兩次隱性的金融危機(jī)。第一次發(fā)生在1989年前后，第二次發(fā)生在1997年前后，2000年第二季度達(dá)到谷底，金融穩(wěn)健性指數(shù)降至歷史第二低水平，金融體系又一次陷入困境。近年來，中國采取了一系列措施來改革金融體系，并已經(jīng)取得初步成效，但是問題依然比較嚴(yán)峻。六、金融系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的演變具有明顯的周期性和階段性特征，金融穩(wěn)?。鹑诖嗳醯难葑冘壽E好像一條正弦曲線或者余弦曲線。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，金融穩(wěn)定－金融脆弱的周期大約為10－12年，這與國際上的一些研究結(jié)果是比較一致的。參考文獻(xiàn)1. Allen, F. and D. Gale. 2002 “Financial Fragility.”, Working Paper No. 01–37, Wharton Financial Institutions Center, University of at 2. Aykut Kibritcioglu, Excessive RiskTaking, Banking Sector Fragility, and Banking Crises, , 2002, Working Paper Series 266, Available at 3. Bergman, U. M. and J. 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