【正文】 nt. Robot flexibility allows those same automated operations to be performed more consistently, with inexpensive equipment and with significant cost advantages. Robotic AssistanceA key robotics growth arena is Intelligent Assist Devices (IAD).operators manipulate a robot as though it were a bionic extension of their own limbs with increased reach and strength. This is robotics technology not replacements for humans or robots, but rather a new class of ergonomic assist products that helps human partners in a wide variety of ways, including power assist, motion guidance, line tracking and process automation. IAD use robotics technology to help production people to handle parts and payloads, more, heavier, better, faster, with less strain. Using a humanmachine interface, the operator and IAD work in tandem to optimize lifting, guiding and positioning movements. Sensors, puter power and control algorithms translate the operator39。s hand movements into super human lifting power. New robot configurationsAs the technology and economic implications of Moore39。s law continue to shift puting power and price, we should expect more innovations, more costeffective robot configurations, more applications beyond the traditional service emphasis. The biggest change in industrial robots is that they will evolve into a broader variety of structures and mechanisms. In many cases, configurations that evolve into new automation systems won39。t be immediately recognizable as robots. For example, robots that automate semiconductor manufacturing already look quite different from those used in automotive plants. We will see the day when there are more of these programmable tooling kinds of robots than all of the traditional robots that exist in the world today. There is an enormous sea change ing。 the potential is significant because soon robots will offer not only improved costeffectiveness, but also advantages and operations that have never been possible before. Envisioning Vision Despite the wishes of robot researchers to emulate human appearance and intelligence, that simply hasn39。t happened. Most robots still can39。t see，versatile and rapid object recognition is still not quite attainable. And there are very few examples of bipedal, upright walking robots such as Honda P3, mostly used for research or sample demonstrations. A relatively small number of industrial robots are integrated with machine vision systems，which is why it39。s called machine vision rather than robot vision. The early machine vision adopters paid very high prices, because of the technical expertise needed to such systems. For example, in the mid1980s, a flexible manufacturing system from Cincinnati Milacron included a $900,000 vision guidance system. By 1998 average prices had fallen to $40,000, and prices continued to decline. Today, simple pattern matching vision sensors can be purchased for under $2,000 from Cognex, Omron and others. The price reductions reflect today39。s reduced puting costs, and the focused development of vision systems for specific jobs such as inspection. Robots already in use everywhereSales of industrial robots have risen to record levels and they have huge, untapped potential for domestic chores like mowing the lawn and vacuuming the carpet. Last year 3,000 underwater robots, 2,300 demolition robots and 1,600 surgical robots were in operation. A big increase is predicted for domestic robots for vacuum cleaning and lawn mowing, increasing from 12,500 in 2000 to almost 500,000 by the end of 2004. IBot Roomba floor cleaning robot is now available at under $. In the wake of recent anthrax scares, robots are increasingly used in postal sorting applications. Indeed, there is huge potential to mechanize the US postal service. Some 1,000 robots were installed last year to sort parcels and the US postal service has estimated that it has the potential to use up to 80,000 robots for sorting. Look around at the robots around us today: automated gas pumps, bank ATMs, selfservice checkout lanes，machines that are already replacing many service jobs. Fastforward another few decades. It doesn39。t require a great leap of faith to envision how advances in image processing, microprocessor speed and humansimulation could lead to the automation of most boring, lowintelligence, lowpaying jobs. Marshall Brain (yes, that39。s his name) founder of has written a couple of interesting essays about robotics in the future, well worth reading. He feels that it is quite plausible that over the next 40 years robots will displace most human jobs. According to Brain39。s projections, in his essay Robotic Nation, humanoid robots will be widely available by 2030. They will replace jobs currently filled by people for work such as fastfood service, housecleaning and retail sales. Unless ways are found to pensate for these lost jobs, Brain estimates that more than 50% of Americans could be unemployed by 2055 replaced by robots.Intelligent robots will be everywhereThe world of HAL and Data, of sentient machines, is fast approaching. Indeed, in some ways it has already arrived as humanlike machines increasingly take on the work of humans. As processing power increases exponentially, and as MEMS technology brings smaller and smarter sensors and actuators, robots are the breeding ground for futuregeneration products with new, varied and exciting applications. Industrial robots The vast majority of robots are used by the manufacturing industry, for repetitive tasks such as painting autobodies and simple assembly. Some 100,000 new robots were installed worldwide in 2000, nearly half of them in Japan, the biggest user. There were nearly 800,000 industrial robots in existence at the end of 2002 and this is likely to rise to almost 1 million by the end of 2004. In the last decade the performance of robots has increased radically while at the same time prices have been plummeting. Today, manufacturing robots