關(guān)人民幣匯率安排——由最優(yōu)通貨區(qū)理論談起-資料下載頁(yè)
2025-06-23 15:15本頁(yè)面
【正文】 過(guò)分沖擊而在我國(guó)目前所面臨的長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)外同時(shí)失衡的情況下維持固定匯率的成本也越來(lái)越大；時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)將來(lái)一次性貶值的幅度也越大對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的沖擊也會(huì)越大客觀(guān)地說(shuō)政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的承諾并沒(méi)有緩解人民幣匯率安排的內(nèi)在矛盾而是把其長(zhǎng)期化這種矛盾反映了我國(guó)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策與匯率政策安排的激烈沖突增加了我國(guó)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)期不確定性五、結(jié)論根據(jù)OCA理論所提供的思路我們考察了人民幣匯率安排的合理性和內(nèi)在矛盾發(fā)現(xiàn)定住美元的匯率安排是一種注重于短期穩(wěn)定的制度安排為了從根本上提高經(jīng)濟(jì)效率并穩(wěn)定宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)必須在第一次大幅調(diào)整匯率時(shí)作出某種臨時(shí)性的安排否則會(huì)給整個(gè)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)破壞性的沖擊【參考文獻(xiàn)】《通貨區(qū)理論與貨幣一體化》.,P.,1992,amp。quot。Theeconomics,ofMonetaryIntegrationamp。quot。,OxfordUniversityPress.,.,1979,amp。quot。FinancialPoliciesinOpenEconomicsamp。quot。,AER,69,May.,1969,amp。quot。TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreas。AnEclecticViewamp。quot。inMundell,(eds)amp。quot。MonetaryProblemsoftheInternationalEconomyamp。quot。,Chicago,University,ofChicagoPress,41—46.,.,1998,amp。quot。TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreasandthePossibilityofFormingaYenBlockinAsiaamp。quot。,JournalofAsianEconomics,9(4).,.,1963,amp。quot。OptimumCurrencyAreasamp。quot。,AER,53,717—725.,.,1961,amp。quot。TheoryofOptimumCurrenAreasamp。quot。,AER,51,657—665.,J.,1997,amp。quot。An,OverviewofStabilizationIssuesFacingEconomiesinTransitionamp。quot。,(eds)amp。quot。EconomiesinTransitionamp。quot。,Cambridge,234—256.12
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