【正文】 nfo: Special issues for public panies/potential for some scrutiny from investment munity ?Negativity: Readers may disagree with blog postings and express/spread negative sentiment publicly as a result ?Transparency: obfuscation and downright lies are always found out and bloggers love to expose them ?Web is Different Brand Blogging 101 Web As Collective Intelligence ? Hyperlinking and syndicating is the foundation of the new web. ? The central principle behind the success of the giants born in the Web era who have survived to lead the Web era appears to be this, that they have embraced the power of the web to harness collective intelligence. Web Daily Operated ? So fundamental is the shift from software as artifact to software as service that the software will cease to perform unless it is maintained on a daily basis. Everyone Is Inputting ? Users must be treated as codevelopers. ? It39。s no accident that services such as Gmail, Google Maps, Flickr, , and the like may be expected to bear a Beta logo for years at a time – everyone is inputting. Writing for the Inter ?Setting up a blog in a Web world ?So, if this is the Blogosphere, how are we going to use it tour advantage? HOW ARE WE GOING TO NAVIGATE IN THE BLOGOSPHERE? ?With these TOOLS..... ?Web is Different Our War Room: The Star Ship Enterprise Bridge Our Strategy Developing our Strategy Podcasts Trackbacks Widgets Comments Posts Email Newsletter RSS Feed Flickr BLOG “My audience is people who hate their jobs” Nick Denton, Gawker Strategy Space Users Peers Microchunks Network The most successful plays will generate economies along all three dimensions. Revenue Streams ? Ads – Contextual ads, microads (RSS), etc ? Google, ? Brands – Community as branding channel ? MySpace, SecondLife, Facebook ? Peer Production (Virtual) – Play for free, pay for cool stuff ? Habbo, SecondLife ? Peer Production (Physical) – Leveraging peer producers ? Zazzle, threadless ? Transactions ? eBay, SideStep, Indeed, LinkedIn ? Enterprise subsidizes consumer – Enterprise customers pay, consumers don‘t ? Skype, Technorati, Facebook Edge Competences ? What do players who realize economies have in mon? – Edge petences ? Outward facing petences at the edges of the value chain – Focused on working resources at the edges – With as little mediation as possible – To rapidly unlock value through plementarity gains – Making niches smaller and smaller, and easier and easier to find and access for petitors and plementors – EG PayPal, AdWords, Amazon reviews, (Audioscrobbler) ? Not inward facing core petences – Focused on gaining cheap access to/building barriers around scarce edge resources by monopolizing the core – To control value by controlling shelf/screen/spectrum space, marketing, billing relationships, etc – Making niches bigger and bigger, and harder and harder to access for petitors and plementors – EG Publishers: ?How can I choose the ?best‘ book/game/article/journal?‘ Edge Competences ? What do models that realize economies have in mon? – Edge petences – All of them create plasticity ? They let prosumers unbundle and rebundle info according to their expectations and preferences hyperefficiently – EG AdSense/AdWords keywords, Wikipedia articles, blog ments – Most of them create liquidity ? They enable the aggregation, revelation, amp。 trading of info about consumption – collective intelligence. Making markets of plastic micromedia. – EG AdWords?AdSense?RSS AdSense?Locationaware AdSense (?), Amazon reviews, link aggregation – Many of them create knowledge pools ? They store collective intelligence enabled by liquidity, allowing the munity to selfregulate – EG eBay Feedback Forum, blogosphere Knowledge Pools ? “…The eBay Feedback Forum illustrates Yhprum’s Law. (Yhprum is Murphy spelled backward.) Systems that shouldn’t work sometimes do. Though buyers have no incentive to leave feedback, half of them do. That fraction raises the spectre of selection bias, and suspicion is raised further because only 1% of feedback is negative. Yet each week hundreds of thousands of items – very few of them assuredly new or standardized get sold on eBay. This implies that their sellers are accounts and virtually all studies find an effect of seller’s reputation on the price he receives.” – The Value of Reputation on eBay, Resnick, Zeckhauser, Swanson and Lockwood @ UMich – What are the dynamics of eBay‘s Feedback Forum? ? The marginal benefit of the first few positive feedbacks is large, and then decays to zero ? The incentive is to be just ?good enough‘ bounded by the munity‘s aggregate expectations – The knowledge pool enables selfregulation to emerge frictionlessly ? Diminishing returns to perfect behavior Competitive Dynamics FirstMover Advantage economies should make firstmover advantage a dominant strategy in markets, since increasing returns dominate. Do we see these dynamics emerging in markets? In the RSS market, first movers currently hold an exponential advantage. F I R S T M O V E R A D V A N T A G E : O N L I N E R S S R E A D E R SJ u l 0 30 1 N o vM a y 0 4O c t 0 4y = 4 E + 5 7 e 0 . 0 0 3 5 xR2 = 0 . 8 4 3 10%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%M a r k e t En tr yMarket ShareValue Creation Value Creation Potential Market analysis of the Web/Media space suggests the future value of the total Web and Media market is between 1% and 9% of the current media industry. This value will grow as new entry increases, and as strong exits increase current valuations. This analysis is in line with the data on Web economies presented here. Together, they suggest that expe