【正文】 May include informal munications with marketing personnel ? Inventory information is not available in realtime, and does not recognize inventory that has been sold but not shipped ? Inventory available to mit to future orders is not known ? Inventory shortages may mean unplanned production changeovers, resulting in: ? Lost production capacity ? Potential shortages of other products ? Actual sales data is not available on a timely basis, because: ? It is hard to gather ? Lack of anizational trust ? With access to sales forecasts and plans and realtime sales order data, production could make better decisions and manage inventory better ? Most panies use standard costs to account for manufacturing costs ? Standard costs are based on historical costs for materials, labor and factory overhead ? Manufacturing costs are estimated by multiplying production quantities by standard costs ? Actual production costs invariably deviate from estimates using standard costs, and adjustments must be made regularly ? Production planning involves: ? Developing an aggregate production plan for groups of products ? Breaking down the aggregate plan into more specific plans for individual products using smaller time increments ? Use the production plan to determine raw material requirements ? Sales Forecasting: ? The process of developing a prediction of future demand for a pany’s products ? Sales and Operations: ? Process of determining what the pany should produce ? Requires starting inventory levels and sales forecast ? Capacity must be considered ? Inventory may be built to meet demand for seasonal products ? Demand Management: ? Process of breaking production plan down into smaller time increments ? Detailed Scheduling: ? Development of a detailed production schedule based on production plan from demand management ? Scheduling method depends on production environment ? Production: ? Uses the detailed schedule to determine what products to produce and what staffing is required ? Material Requirements Planning: ? Determines amount and timing of raw material orders ? Purchasing: ? Takes quantity and timing information from MRP and creates purchase orders, which It transmits to qualified suppliers ? In SAP R/3, sales (consumption values) are automatically recorded when sales are made in the SD module ? Additional detail (sales by region or sales office) can be recorded by the Logistics Information System (LIS) ? Business Warehouse (BW) can be used for even more detailed sales analysis ? With an integrated information system, accurate sales data are easily available for forecasting J a n. Fe b. M a r c h A pr i l M a y J uneP r e v i ous Y e a r ( c a s e s ) 5734 5823 5884 6134 6587 6735P r om ot i on S a l e s ( c a s e s ) 300 300P r e v i ous Y e a r ba s e ( c a s e s ) 5734 5823 5884 6134 6287 6435G r ow t h: 3 . 0 % 172 175 177 184 189 193B a s e P r oj e c t i on ( c a s e s ) 5906 5998 6061 6318 6476 6628P r om ot i on ( c a s e s ) 500S a l e s For e c a s t ( c a s e s ) 5906 5998 6061 6318 6476 7128S a l e s For e c a s t i ngSimple Sales Forecast ? Sales based on simple adjustment to previous year39。s sales values ? Input to SOP is sales forecast and beginning inventory ? Output is a production plan that balances market demand with production capacity ? Developing an SOP answers the question: “How can manufacturing efficiently produce enough goods to meet projected sales?” ? Fitter Snacker Production Capacity: b a r s / d a y 0 0 0,96d a .m i i nb a r s2 0 0 ???????????????????c a s e s / d a y o xc a s e12 1b a r sb o x241b a r s / d a y 000,96 ?????????????S a l e s a nd O pe r a t i ons P l a nni ng D e c . J a n. Fe b. M a r c h A pr i l M a y J une1 ) S a l e s For e c a s t 5906 5998 6061 6318 6476 71282 ) P r odu c t i on P l a n 5906 5998 6061 6318 6900 67003 ) I nv e nt or y 100 100 100 100 100 524 964 ) W or k i ng D a y s 22 20 22 21 23 215 ) C a pa c i t y ( S hi ppi ng C a s e s ) 7333 6667 7333 7000 7667 70006 ) U t i l i z a t i on 81% 90% 83% 90% 90% 96%7 ) N R G A ( c a s e s ) 7 0 . 0 % 4134 4199 4243 4423 4830 46908 ) N R G B ( c a s e s ) 3 0 . 0 % 1772 1799 1818 1895 2070 2022Sales and Operations Planning ? When demand is forecasted to exceed capacity, a pany might: ? Choose not to meet all demand or reduce promotional expenditures ? Use overtime to increase capacity ? Will increase costs ? Inventory can be built up in earlier periods ? Will increase costs and inventory may be lost ? Try a hybrid approach ? Because the SAP R/3 system is integrated, accurate historical sales values are readily available for forecasting ? In forecasting, “correcting” historical sales data is valid if: ? Production was not able to meet demand, so that the historical sales data does not represent actual demand ? Unusual conditions like weather affected demand ? The effect of sales promotions needs to be “backed out” of the data ? In the SAP R/3 system, a number of forecasting models are available Sales provided from SD module Field where planner can “correct” the sales value Historical Sales Data Forecasting Models in SAP R/3 Historical Sales Values Forecasted Sales ? Using graphs to evaluate forecasts is frequently the best method Evaluating Forecasts ? In SOP, roughcut capacity planning can be used to evaluate plan feasibility ? For simple products/processes like Fitter Snacker, the capacity estimations are pretty accurate ? For plicated assemblies/manufacturing processes, accurate rough cut capacity estimates are hard to achieve Capacity Requirements Production Plan ? ERP systems provide sophisticated SOP tools, but require mitment from both partie