[經濟學]貨幣金融學課件lecture-資料下載頁
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【正文】 ty bonds move together over time A rise in shortterm interest rates indicates that shortterm interest rate will be higher in the future ,and the first term in Equation implies that longterm rates will rise along with them Liquidity Premium and Preferred Habitat Theories, Explanation of the Facts ? Yield curves tend to have an especially steep slope upward when shortterm rates are low and to be inverted when shortterm rates are high ? Because investors generally expect shortterm interest rates to rise to some normal level when they are low , the average of future expected shortterm rats will be high relative to the current shortterm rate. With the additional boost of a positive liquidity premium, longterm interest rates will be substantially higher than the current short ones, and the yield curve will have a steep upward slope Liquidity Premium and Preferred Habitat Theories, Explanation of the Facts ? The liquidity premium and preferred habitat theory explain fact 3, which states that yield curve typically slope upward , by recognizing that the liquidity premium rises with a bond’s maturity because of investor’s preferences for shortterm bonds . Even if shortterm interest rates are expected to stay the same on average, the premium makes longterm rates be above shortterm rates? yield curve typically slop upward Liquidity Premium and Preferred Habitat Theories, Explanation of the Facts ? How to explain the inverted yield curve if liquidity premium is positive? ? It must be that at times shortterm interest rates are expected to fall so much in the future and the average of the expected shortterm rates is so below the current shortterm rate. Even when the positive premium is added, the resulting longterm rate will be still lower than the current one Copyright 169。 2022 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 634 Yield curve as a forecasting tool The yield curve has relevance not only for assessing investment opportunities, but for policymakers who are trying to predict conditions in the macroeconomy ? Recall that rising interest rates are associated with expansions, and falling rates with recessions. ? If the yield curve is negativelysloped, indicating expectations of falling shortterm rates, it may be a predictor of a recession ? Recall that a rise in expected inflation causes interest rates to rise. ? A steep yield curve is a predictor of a rise in inflation, while a flat or downsloping curve predicts a fall in inflation. ? Alternatively: steep curve indicates loose moary policy, while a flat or downsloping curve indicates tight policy. ? Copyright 169。 2022 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 636
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