[管理學(xué)]analysisforfinancialmanagementchap-資料下載頁(yè)
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【正文】 a new petitor. 337 Simulation Analysis ? Assign probability distributions to each major variable. ? Run many pro formas, with the variable values drawn from a Monte Carlo process. ? Advantage: many scenarios. ? Disadvantage: many managers do not think in terms of probabilities, and the planning issues are opaque. 338 FIGURE 31 Simulating Ramp。E Supplies’ Need for External Funding: Frequency Chart 339 FIGURE 31 (Continued) Distribution Gallery for Sales Growth Source: Crystal Ball, Decisioneering, Inc. 340 Cash Flow Forecasts ? Sources and Uses of Cash ? Based on same assumptions as the interim pro forma ine statement and balance sheet. ? EFR = Total uses – Total sources 341 TABLE 36 Cash Flow Forecast for Ramp。E Supplies, Inc. 2022 ($ thousands) 342 Cash Budgets ? Pro forma statements rely on accrual accounting. ? Cash budgets are strictly cash accounting. ? Cash budgets require translation from accrual projections to cash projections. – Adjust for timing of collections and payments. ? Example: Jill Clair Fashions monthly cash budget. ? 2%/10 30 – factoring it in. 343 TABLE 37 Cash Budget for Jill Clair Fashions, 3rd Quarter, 2022 ($ thousands) 344 TABLE (Continued) 345 Bottom Line ? In the next slide, look at the bottom line cumulative EFR line, as well as the changes. 346 TABLE 37 (Concluded) 347 Planning in Large Companies ? Three stages to planning: 1. Hammer out corporate strategy (SWOT), with broad brush financial planning. 2. Translate qualitative goals into internal division activities, with rough financial forecasts. 3. Quantitative plans and budgets, both operating budgets and capital budgets. – Integration of 3 leads to the corporation’s financial plan.
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