【正文】 正是 NCR 的數(shù)據(jù)倉(cāng)庫(kù)開發(fā)小組 —— 萬億數(shù)據(jù)（ Teradata） —— 現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)是一家獨(dú)立的公司。 A few years ago such technologies, called “business intelligence”, were available only to the world?s biggest panies. But as the price of puting and storage has fallen and the software systems have got better and cheaper, the technology has moved into the mainstream. Companies are collecting more data than ever before. In the past they were kept in different systems that were unable to talk to each other, such as finance, human resources or customer management. Now the systems are being linked, and panies are using datamining techniques to get a plete picture of their operations—“a single version of the truth”, as the industry likes to call it. That allows firms to operate more efficiently, pick out trends and improve their forecasting. 這樣的技術(shù)在幾年前被稱作“商務(wù)智能”，僅有幾家世界級(jí)的大公司能夠享有。但隨著計(jì)算和存儲(chǔ)產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格下降以及越來越好且越來越廉價(jià)的軟件系統(tǒng)，該項(xiàng)技術(shù)已逐步成為主流。商業(yè)公司收集的信息比以往都要多得多。過去，這些數(shù)據(jù)都存儲(chǔ)在不能互相溝通的不同系統(tǒng)中，比方說財(cái)經(jīng)系統(tǒng)、人力資源系統(tǒng)或者客戶管理系統(tǒng)等。現(xiàn)在，這些系統(tǒng)都被連在了一起，而且商業(yè)公司都使用數(shù)據(jù)挖掘技術(shù)以獲得他們運(yùn)作的一幅完整圖景 —— “事實(shí)的唯一版本”—— 業(yè)界樂于賦予其的稱呼。這樣的技術(shù)使商業(yè)公司能夠更高效的運(yùn)作、把握趨勢(shì)和改善預(yù)測(cè)。 Consider Cable, a Swiss teles operator. It has reduced customer defections from onefifth of subscribers a year to under 5% by crunching its numbers. Its software spotted that although customer defections peaked in the 13th month, the decision to leave was made much earlier, around the ninth month (as indicated by things like the number of calls to customer support services). So Cable offered certain customers special deals seven months into their subscription and reaped the rewards. 瑞士的一個(gè)名為 Cable的電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商通過處理自己公司的數(shù)據(jù)使其客戶流失率從 20%下降到 5%。其軟件發(fā)現(xiàn)，雖然客戶流失率的最大值發(fā)生在客戶注冊(cè)后的第 13 個(gè)月，但是決定放棄使用 Cable 電信服務(wù)的決定卻發(fā)生在這很久以前，大概在客戶注冊(cè)后的第 9 個(gè)月（通過諸如聯(lián)系客戶支持服務(wù)中心的電話的數(shù)量等參數(shù)可以表明）。于是， Cable 通過在客戶注冊(cè)后的第 7 個(gè)月為相關(guān)客戶提供特別契約服務(wù)，從而有效地減少了客戶流失。 Agony and torture 痛苦與折騰 Such datamining has a dubious reputation. “Torture the data long enough and they will confess to anything,” statisticians quip. But it has bee far more effective as more panies have started to use the technology. Best Buy, a retailer, found that 7% of its customers accounted for 43% of its sales, so it reanised its stores to concentrate on those customers? needs. Airline yield management improved because analytical techniques uncovered the best predictor that a passenger would actually catch a flight he had booked: that he had ordered a vegetarian meal. 這樣的數(shù)據(jù)挖掘技術(shù)是毀譽(yù)參半的。“只要把這些數(shù)據(jù)不停地反復(fù)折騰，它們總會(huì)供認(rèn)不諱，”統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)家們嘲弄道。然而隨著越來越多的公司開始使用這項(xiàng)技術(shù)而使得它的作用更加顯著。 16 零售公司 Best Buy 發(fā)現(xiàn)其 7%的客戶貢獻(xiàn)了其 43%的銷售額，因此該公司針對(duì)這些客戶的需求重組了其商店。由于航空公司通過分析技術(shù)發(fā)現(xiàn)：乘客肯定會(huì)乘坐他預(yù)訂的那架航班（他還在該航班上預(yù)訂了素食餐），因而改善了公司的收益管理。 The IT industry is piling into business intelligence, seeing it as a natural successor of services such as accountancy and puting in the first and second half of the 20th century respectively. Accenture, PricewaterhouseCoopers, IBM and SAP are investing heavily in their consulting practices. Technology vendors such as Oracle, Informatica, TIBCO, SAS and EMC have benefited. IBM believes business intelligence will be a pillar of its growth as sensors are used to manage things from a city?s traffic flow to a patient?s blood flow. It has invested $12 billion in the past four years and is opening six analytics centres with 4,000 employees worldwide. IT 行業(yè)正設(shè)法擠進(jìn)商務(wù)智能領(lǐng)域，并認(rèn)為自己理所當(dāng)然地將 —— 就像會(huì)計(jì)業(yè)務(wù)和計(jì)算等業(yè)務(wù)分別主宰了 20 世紀(jì)上半葉和下半葉那樣 —— 成為 21 世紀(jì)的主宰。事實(shí)上，PricewaterhouseCoopers、 IBM 和 SAP 等公司均對(duì)他們的咨詢業(yè)務(wù)注以重資。像 Oracle、Informatica、 TIBCO、 SAS 以及 EMC 等技術(shù)提供商均已從中獲益。 IBM 相信商務(wù)智能將成為其成長(zhǎng)的中流砥柱，就像傳感器可以被用于管理從諸如城市交通流到病人的血流那樣得到廣泛使用。在過去四年中 IBM 已經(jīng)投資 120 億美元在全球建立了 6 個(gè)分析學(xué)研究中心，雇員總數(shù)多達(dá) 4000 人。 Analytics—performing statistical operations for forecasting or uncovering correlations such as between PopTarts and hurricanes—can have a big payoff. In Britain the Royal Shakespeare Company (RSC) sifted through seven years of sales data for a marketing campaign that increased regular visitors by 70%. By examining more than 2m transaction records, the RSC discovered a lot more about its best customers: not just ine, but things like occupation and family status, which allowed it to target its marketing more precisely. That was of crucial importance, says the RSC?s Mary Butlin, because it substantially boosted membership as well as fundraising revenue. 分析學(xué) —— 一系列為了預(yù)測(cè)的目的，或者是為了發(fā)現(xiàn)諸如 PopTarts 與颶風(fēng)之間的相關(guān)性，而進(jìn)行的統(tǒng)計(jì)運(yùn)算 —— 能夠帶來巨大的收益。在英國(guó)，皇家莎士比亞公司（ RSC）在市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷戰(zhàn)中通過篩查過往 7 年中的銷售數(shù)據(jù)使公司的常訪客數(shù)量增長(zhǎng)了 70%。通過查看 200 多萬份交易記錄， RSC 發(fā)現(xiàn)其高端客戶很多的信息，除收入水平外，諸如職業(yè)和家庭地位等信息均使得公司能夠更精確地規(guī)劃其市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷的目標(biāo)?！靶畔⑹侵陵P(guān)重要的，” RSC 的 Mary Butlin 說，“因?yàn)樗沟?我們的會(huì)員數(shù)量和資金籌措收入均得到了穩(wěn)步的攀升”。 Yet making the most of data is not easy. The first step is to improve the accuracy of the information. Nestl233。, for example, sells more than 100,000 products in 200 countries, using 550,000 suppliers, but it was not using its huge buying power effectively because its databases were a mess. On examination, it found that of its 9m records of vendors, customers and materials around half were obsolete or duplicated, and of the remainder about onethird were inaccurate or inplete. The name of a vendor might be abbreviated in one record but spelled out in another, leading to doublecounting. 然而要想充分地使數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)揮作用并非易事。首先必須要增加信息的準(zhǔn)確度。比方說，雀巢（ Nestl233。）公司，在 200 個(gè)國(guó)家銷售超過 10 萬種產(chǎn)品，擁有 55 萬個(gè)供應(yīng)商，但該公司過去卻因?yàn)槠鋽?shù)據(jù)庫(kù)亂得一塌糊涂而無法有效利用其巨大的消費(fèi)群。通過檢查，雀巢公司的 900萬份關(guān)于供應(yīng)商、客戶和材料的記錄，有一半 以上是作廢的或偽造的，而剩下的約三分之一 17 則不準(zhǔn)確或者不完整。同一個(gè)名字在一張記錄上可能寫的是縮寫，而在另一張上則是完整的名字，這樣就很容易導(dǎo)致重復(fù)統(tǒng)計(jì)。 Plainer vanilla 抱怨的香子蘭 Over the past ten years Nestl233。 has been overhauling its IT system, using SAP software, and improving the quality of its data. This enabled the firm to bee more efficient, says Chris Johnson, who led the initiative. For just one ingredient, vanilla, its American operation was able to reduce the number of specifications and use fewer suppliers, saving $30m a year. Overall, such operational improvements save more than $1 billion annually. 在過去十多年間，雀巢已經(jīng)對(duì)其 IT 系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行整改，使用了 SAP 的軟件并且改善了其數(shù)據(jù)的質(zhì)量?！斑@使得這家公司變得更