【導(dǎo)讀】未定義書簽。未定義書簽。

　　

【正文】 素價(jià)格的比率以及可變成本的量。此比率是影響決策的主要因素。 技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 本項(xiàng)目推薦采用的工藝技術(shù)，其來源包括國內(nèi)開發(fā)的新技術(shù)和消化吸收國外的創(chuàng)新技術(shù)，這 些技術(shù)都是成熟的先進(jìn)適用技術(shù)，大都經(jīng)過規(guī)?；?、長(zhǎng)周期生產(chǎn)應(yīng)用的考驗(yàn)，將其引用到本項(xiàng)目中是可靠的，因此本項(xiàng)目的技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是極小的。 市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 我國的化肥行業(yè)特別是中小氮肥行業(yè)，同國內(nèi)其它大多數(shù)行業(yè)一樣，面臨嚴(yán)峻的市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力。在進(jìn)入“ WTO”以后，中小氮肥企業(yè)對(duì)市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的壓力更感迫切，只有采用高新技術(shù)擴(kuò)大生產(chǎn)規(guī)模 ,做到節(jié)能降耗、降低成本、提高產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量，使其形成規(guī)模效益，中小氮肥企業(yè)才能增強(qiáng)產(chǎn)品的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，才能繼續(xù)生存和發(fā)展。根據(jù)河南 XX化工有限公司現(xiàn)有裝置的運(yùn)行情況、生產(chǎn)成本和市場(chǎng)營銷網(wǎng)絡(luò)，本項(xiàng)目實(shí)施后 ，企業(yè)不僅形成了經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模，而且降低了消耗，具有一定的市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很小。 投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 經(jīng)測(cè)算，本項(xiàng)目的所得稅前內(nèi)部收益率為 ％，所得稅前投資回收期為 年，國內(nèi)貸款償還期為 年。通過對(duì)產(chǎn)品銷售價(jià)格、建設(shè)投資、年生產(chǎn)量及年可變成本變化對(duì)影響企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的敏感性分析可以看出，產(chǎn)品銷售價(jià)格的變化對(duì)項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的影響最為敏感，但即使產(chǎn)品銷售價(jià)格再下降 10％時(shí)，本項(xiàng)目所得稅前內(nèi)部收益率仍有 ％，且內(nèi)部收益率大于 12%的概率為 %，由此可見本項(xiàng)目具有較好的抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力。 項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)分析結(jié)論，本項(xiàng)目首先有著顯著的社會(huì)效益，是一個(gè)發(fā)展本地經(jīng)濟(jì)提高效益的好項(xiàng)目，它應(yīng)該得到推廣和社會(huì)的承認(rèn)。 其次，項(xiàng)目有較好經(jīng)濟(jì)效益，各項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)均高于行業(yè)基準(zhǔn)指標(biāo)，是可行的。從各項(xiàng)分析指標(biāo)看，此項(xiàng)目可以給企業(yè)每年帶來 萬元的稅后利潤(rùn)。同時(shí)，每年給國家上繳 萬元所得稅。從項(xiàng)目還貸能力分析，項(xiàng)目還貸能力強(qiáng)，所借銀行資金能在 年還清 (包括建設(shè)期 2 年 )，投資回收期 年 (包括建設(shè)期 2 年 )。項(xiàng)目是可行的。 27 6 結(jié)論 通過對(duì)該項(xiàng)目的分析，可以得出以下結(jié)論： 通過對(duì) 該項(xiàng)目的必要性分析， 由于我們的農(nóng)業(yè)資源條件較差，國家的糧食安全離不開化肥，降低化肥的成本，降低糧食成本，提高競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力同樣需要化工企業(yè)的不斷改進(jìn)，因此項(xiàng)目是符合國家需求的。且對(duì)穩(wěn)定當(dāng)?shù)剞r(nóng)業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展提高企業(yè)的市場(chǎng)抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力和經(jīng)濟(jì)效益，顯得非常必要且具有重要意義。 通過對(duì)市場(chǎng)的分析，國際尿素需求將持續(xù)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)，且國內(nèi)不會(huì)再大量進(jìn)口尿素 ，這樣就有了需求缺口，有這個(gè)市場(chǎng)需求。分析數(shù)據(jù)顯示國際能源價(jià)格和尿素價(jià)格有一定的線性關(guān)系，大概為 。 擬建廠址交通便利，運(yùn)輸方便工程地質(zhì)條件良好，適于建廠。 通過對(duì)項(xiàng)目的 財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)和社會(huì)效益評(píng)價(jià)，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)認(rèn)為 此 項(xiàng)目的投資利潤(rùn)率和投資利稅率均大于行業(yè)平均利潤(rùn)率和平均利稅率 ，而且對(duì)內(nèi)部收益率進(jìn)行不確定分析和敏感性分析可以看出來此項(xiàng)目的抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力也很強(qiáng)，而且采用了新技術(shù)，新工藝，而且規(guī)模效益明顯，同時(shí)刺激了當(dāng)?shù)氐耐顿Y于就業(yè)，因此該項(xiàng)目的社會(huì)效益也是好的。 最終認(rèn)為本項(xiàng)目建設(shè)切實(shí)可行，有利于企業(yè)的發(fā)展和壯大 。 28 參考文獻(xiàn) [1] 蘇建民 .化工技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)，化學(xué)工業(yè)出版社， 1999 [2] 戚安邦 .項(xiàng)目論證與評(píng)估，機(jī)械工業(yè)出版社， 2021 [3] Harold Kerzner,. PROJECT MANAGEMENT， 2021 [4] 劉國恒 .建設(shè)項(xiàng)目可行性研究與項(xiàng)目評(píng)估文獻(xiàn)集，學(xué)術(shù)書刊出版社， 1989 [5] 萬威武，張東勝 .項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)理論與方法，西安交通大學(xué)出版社， 1992 [6] 王武龍主編 .投資項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢?cè)u(píng)估指南，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)出版社， 1998 [7] 林思斯奈爾赫爾曼 G范德塔克著 .項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)分析，孫禮照，胡莊君 譯 .清華大學(xué)出版社， 1985 [8] 國家計(jì)劃委員會(huì)、建設(shè)部 .建設(shè)項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)方法與參數(shù) (第二版 ).中國計(jì)劃出版社， 1993 [9] 聯(lián)合國工 業(yè)發(fā)展組織國際工業(yè)研究中心 .工業(yè)可行性研究報(bào)告編寫手冊(cè)，中國對(duì)外翻譯出版公司， 1986 [10] 、 and (中文版 )，中國對(duì)外翻譯出版社公司， 1984 [11] 項(xiàng)目可行性研究與評(píng)估經(jīng)典案例精解 .王勇 ,陳延輝 .中國建筑工業(yè)出版社， [12] 李開發(fā) .可行性報(bào)告寫作方法與案例 .中國水利水電出版社， [13] 王勇，白思俊 .投資項(xiàng)目可行性分析：理論精要與案例解析 .電子工業(yè)出版社，2021,7 29 致謝 四年的時(shí)光 轉(zhuǎn)瞬即逝，經(jīng)歷了四年的風(fēng)風(fēng)雨雨，即將結(jié)束我在華北水利水電學(xué)院的學(xué)習(xí)生涯。工業(yè)工程專業(yè)諸位老師的諄諄教導(dǎo)，使我學(xué)到了很多的知識(shí)，也讓我體會(huì)到了學(xué)海無涯的深刻涵義。 在完成這篇論文、即將結(jié)束學(xué)生生涯的時(shí)候，我要特別感謝我的導(dǎo)師郭潔教授，有幸成為她的學(xué)生，是我的榮幸。在學(xué)習(xí)和生活中都得到了老師很大的幫助，他們那淵博的學(xué)識(shí)、嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)膽B(tài)度、高尚的人格魅力都給我留下了深刻的印象。在構(gòu)思和寫作本論文的過程中，又得到了老師詳盡的幫助和指導(dǎo)，從而使本文能得以順利進(jìn)行下去，在這里，我由衷的向老師表示誠摯的感謝 ! 四年的求學(xué)生涯， 認(rèn)識(shí)了 07 級(jí)工業(yè)工程的諸位同學(xué)，生活中、學(xué)習(xí)上，大家共同進(jìn)步，在即將離別之際，我要向四年來朝夕相處的同學(xué)們說聲 :一個(gè)終點(diǎn)，亦是另外一個(gè)起點(diǎn)，同志仍需努力。 30 附 錄 附 錄 1： 英文原文 Feasibility study A feasibility study’s main goal is to assess the economic viability of the proposed business. The feasibility study needs to answer the question: “Does the idea make economic sense?” The study should provide a thorough analysis of the business opportunity, including a look at all the possible roadblocks that may stand in the way of the cooperative’s success. The oute of the feasibility study will indicate whether or not to proceed with the proposed venture. If the results of the feasibility study are positive, then the cooperative can proceed to develop a business plan. If the results show that the project is not a sound business idea, then the project should not be pursued. Although it is difficult to accept a feasibility study that shows these results, it is much better to find this out sooner rather than later, when more time and money would have been invested and lost. It is tempting to overlook the need for a feasibility study. Often, the steering mittee may face resistance from potential members on the need to do a feasibility study. Many people will feel that they know the proposed venture is a good idea, so why carry out a costly study just to prove what they already know? The feasibility study is important because it forces the NGC to put its ideas on paper and to assess whether or not those ideas are realistic. It also forces the NGC to begin formally evaluating which steps to take next. The NGC’s anizers will typically hire a consultant to conduct the feasibility study. Because the consultant is independent of the cooperative, he or she is in a better position to provide an objective analysis of the proposed venture. The consultant should have a good understanding of the industry as well as the new generation cooperative model of 31 business. He or she should have previous experience in directly related work. To get an estimate of the costs of a feasibility study, prepare a rough outline of the work needed to be done. Contact several consultants and provide them with a copy of this rough draft to see what sort of estimates they give. When the time es to hire a consultant, prepare a formal request for proposals that outlines the information that is needed and send this to several consultants. It might be tempting to choose the lowestcost consultant or a personal acquaintance of one of the NGC’s anizers, but always remember that quality work is the most important factor when choosing a consultant. Make sure that the consultant can provide an independent assessment of the business opportunity. For instance, hiring an engineering firm or an equipment manufacturer to conduct market analysis may lead to biased results in favor of proceeding with the venture. Engineering firms and equipment manufacturers may have an incentive to show positive results so they can obtain contracts with the cooperative once it chooses to start up operations. Engineering firms and equipment manufacturers are needed in order to provide information about equipment requirements and costs, but an independent consultant should conduct the overall feasibility study. A feasibility study should examine three main areas: ? market issues ? technical and anizational requirements ? financial overview Market issues: The primary area that the feasibility study needs to address