【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 6][17][18] ? Conservatism (Bayesian) – the tendency to revise belief insufficiently when presented with new evidence (estimates of conditional probabilities are conservative)[16][19][20] ? Contrast effect – the enhancement or diminishing of a weight or other measurement when pared with a recently observed contrasting object.[21] ? Curse of knowledge – when knowledge of a topic diminishes one39。s ability to think about it from a lessinformed perspective. ? Decoy effect – preferences change when there is a third option that is asymmetrically dominated ? Denomination effect – the tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts (. coins) rather than large amounts (. bills).[22] ? Distinction bias – the tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately.[23] ? Duration neglect – the neglect of the duration of an episode in determining its value Decisionmaking, belief and behavioral biases (3/8) ? Empathy gap – the tendency to underestimate the influence or strength of feelings, in either oneself or others. ? Endowment effect – the fact that people often demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it.[24] ? Essentialism – categorizing people and things according to their essential nature, in spite of variations.[25] ? Exaggerated expectation – based on the estimates, realworld evidence turns out to be less extreme than our expectations (conditionally inverse of the conservatism bias).[16][26] ? Experimenter39。s or expectation bias – the tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations for the oute of an experiment, and to disbelieve, discard, or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those expectations.[27] ? Falseconsensus effect the tendency of a person to overestimate how much other people agree with him or her. ? Functional fixedness limits a person to using an object only in the way it is traditionally used ? Focusing effect – the tendency to place too much importance on one aspect of an event。 causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future oute.[28] ? Forer effect or Barnum effect – the observation that individuals will give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. This effect can provide a partial explanation for the widespread acceptance of some beliefs and practices, such as astrology, fortune telling, graphology, and some types of personality tests. ? Framing effect – drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how or by whom that information is presented. ? Frequency illusion – the illusion in which a word, a name or other thing that has recently e to one39。s attention suddenly seems to appear with improbable frequency shortly afterwards. (see also recency illusion).[29] Decisionmaking, belief and behavioral biases (4/8) ? Gambler39。s fallacy – the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality they are unchanged. Results from an erroneous conceptualization of the law of large numbers. For example, I39。ve flipped heads with this coin five times consecutively, so the chance of tails ing out on the sixth flip is much greater than heads. ? Hardeasy effect – Based on a specific level of task difficulty, the confidence in judgments is too conservative and not extreme enough[16][30][31][32] ? Hindsight bias – sometimes called the Iknewitallalong effect, the tendency to see past events as being predictable[33] at the time those events happened. Colloquially referred to as Hindsight is 20/20. ? Hostile media effect – the tendency to see a media report as being biased, owing to one39。s own strong partisan views. ? Hothand fallacy The hothand fallacy (also known as the hot hand phenomenon or hot hand) is the fallacious belief that a person who has experienced success has a greater chance of further success in additional attempts ? Hyperbolic discounting – the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, where the tendency increases the closer to the present both payoffs are.[34] Also known as current moment bias, presentbias, and related to Dynamic inconsistency. ? Illusion of control – the tendency to overestimate one39。s degree of influence over other external events.[35] ? Illusion of validity – when consistent but predictively weak data leads to confident predictions ? Illusory correlation – inaccurately perceiving a relationship between two unrelated events.[36][37] ? Impact bias – the tendency to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states.[38] ? Information bias – the tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action.[39] ? Insensitivity to sample size – the tendency to underexpect variation in small samples ? Irrational escalation – the phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting that the decision was probably wrong. Decisionmaking, belief and behavioral biases (5/8) ? Justworld hypothesis – the tendency for people to want to believe that the world is fundamentally just, causing them to rationalize an otherwise inexplicable injustice as deserved by the victim(s). ? Lessisbetter effect – a preference reversal where a dominated smaller set is preferred to a larger set ? Loss aversion – the disutility of giving up an object is greater than the utility associated with acquiring it.[40] (see also Sunk cost effects and endowment effect). ? Ludic fallacy the misus