歐洲主權(quán)債危機(jī)--啟示及中國面臨的挑戰(zhàn)(編輯修改稿)
2024-08-15 20:45 本頁面
【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 r e f i n a n c i n g 3 o v e r n i g h t r a t e d e p o s i t f a c i l i t i e s 0 時間 四大利息率：再融資利息率、隔夜拆借利息率、借貸安排利息率、存款安排利息率 the Enhanced Credit Support policy 貨幣政策的超常規(guī)做法（旨在應(yīng)對次貸危機(jī)） ? 在給定基礎(chǔ)利率上（ the main refinancing rate) 無限制提供流動性（ against adequate collateral ） ? 擴(kuò)大可接受的擔(dān)保資產(chǎn)的范圍（ the list of assets accepted for use as collateral was extended） ? 延長流動性貸款的期限（最高期限為一年） . These longerterm refinancing operations (LTROs) reduced the refinancing requirements of banks in the short term ? 提供外匯流動性，特別是美元。 ? 購買公私部門債券 to purchase eurodenominated covered bonds issued in the euro area. 2022 底 2022初的退出和歐洲主權(quán)債危機(jī)后的政策變化 ? By the end of 2022, 開始逐步退出 （ a gradual phasingout of the Enhanced Credit Support policy） – decided to discontinue also our six and twelvemonth operations in euro. – return to variable rate tenders in the threemonth euro operations in April. ? 2022年 5月初停止退出 – introduced the Securities Market Programme (SMP) on 10 May. intervene in public and private securities markets to ensure depth and liquidity in dysfunctional market segments. 政府在二級市場上購買國債。但是購買國債所注入的流動性通過對沖被吸干。其具體方是吸引銀行增加在 ECB的存款（ banks 被吸引，將 their liquidity 存入在 the ECB term deposit facili ties中。因而， 歐洲購買國債同美聯(lián)儲購買國債的目的不同，后者是實(shí)施數(shù)量寬松和零利息率政策。 但是銀行可能不愿存。 – 恢復(fù)早先的一些寬松措施 ? reintroduced the fixed rate full allotment procedure in the threemonth longer term refinancing operations（ so far until September 2022. have carried out one additional sixmonth longer term refinancing operations） . ? reintroduced liquidity providing USD operations in cooperation with the US Fed and other central banks. 結(jié)果如何？ ? 希臘在未來兩年的國債已經(jīng)有錢償還，不會違約 ? 傳染效應(yīng)暫時得到控制 ? 國債市場和貨幣市場利息率回落、利息率波動減少 ? 歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)還未未結(jié)束。但形勢可能比我們原先預(yù)料的為好 ? 一些銀行（西班牙、德國）有問題，與房地產(chǎn)泡沫有關(guān)，壓力測試 ? 歐元企穩(wěn) 財(cái)政緊縮還是擴(kuò)張？歐美之爭 —奧地利學(xué)派和凱恩斯學(xué)派之爭 ? 凱恩斯 ? 李嘉圖等價說 為什么寬松的財(cái)政政策轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榫o縮性財(cái)政政策？ 歐洲政策與美國政策的不同 信心問題 財(cái)政失衡可通過實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融市場和機(jī)構(gòu)破壞金融市場的穩(wěn)定 – 擠出效應(yīng)導(dǎo)致政府公債中長期利息率上升 crowd out private sector financing. This usually occurs through the upward pressure that additional government financing requirements places on medium and longterm real interest rates. Aggregate euro area longterm real interest rates indeed rose in recent weeks to levels not seen in at least a year. This suggests that the relevance of this risk and the likelihood of it impinging on the nascent economic recovery and the sizeable funding rollover requirements of large and plex bankin
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