【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 7:41,640以確保保險(xiǎn)公司將會(huì)59900:37:41,640 00:37:44,950履行承諾60000:37:45,680 00:37:48,200政府需要確保保險(xiǎn)公司的60100:37:48,200 00:37:53,930保險(xiǎn)準(zhǔn)備金達(dá)到規(guī)定的數(shù)額60200:37:53,930 00:37:56,510保險(xiǎn)公司必須儲(chǔ)備足夠的資金60300:37:56,510 00:38:02,060以應(yīng)對(duì)突發(fā)的保險(xiǎn)事故60400:38:06,780 00:38:13,310保險(xiǎn)公司可以分為60500:38:13,310 00:38:25,830多線保險(xiǎn)公司[綜合險(xiǎn)種保險(xiǎn)公司]和60600:38:30,040 00:38:35,180單線保險(xiǎn)公司[單一險(xiǎn)種保險(xiǎn)公司]60700:38:35,180 00:38:41,270多線保險(xiǎn)公司為多種事故提供保險(xiǎn)60800:38:41,270 00:38:46,360而不是局限于某一種事故60900:38:46,360 00:38:49,530如果一個(gè)公司僅提供火險(xiǎn)61000:38:49,530 00:38:51,880那它就是單線保險(xiǎn)公司61100:38:54,110 00:38:57,000單線保險(xiǎn)公司風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更大61200:38:57,000 00:38:58,950監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)其監(jiān)管更嚴(yán)61300:38:58,950 00:39:02,170因?yàn)樗麄冇龅轿C(jī)的61400:39:02,210 00:39:05,020可能性更大61500:39:08,290 00:39:14,650相對(duì)的 多線公司的業(yè)務(wù)相當(dāng)于能相互保險(xiǎn)61600:39:15,800 00:39:19,480現(xiàn)在 我們?cè)趫?bào)紙上讀到了很多關(guān)于61700:39:19,480 00:39:20,690單線保險(xiǎn)公司的新聞61800:39:20,690 00:39:23,180我不知道你們是否讀過次貸危機(jī)的新聞61900:39:23,180 00:39:26,840但現(xiàn)在 我們正在經(jīng)歷一場(chǎng)62000:39:26,840 00:39:31,930名為次貸危機(jī)的金融危機(jī)62100:39:32,980 00:39:38,180它對(duì)單線保險(xiǎn)公司的沖擊62200:39:38,180 00:39:40,880自然要大于多線保險(xiǎn)公司62300:39:40,880 00:39:45,390因?yàn)樗鼈兊臉I(yè)務(wù)更單一也更容易受到影響62400:39:46,780 00:39:50,230我過會(huì)兒再回來講這個(gè)問題62500:39:50,230 00:39:58,390下面我想分類介紹一下62600:39:59,530 00:40:02,930單線保險(xiǎn)公司62700:40:03,510 00:40:09,390最大的一類是財(cái)產(chǎn)保險(xiǎn)公司62800:40:10,190 00:40:15,930簡稱Pamp。C 這類保險(xiǎn)公司62900:40:15,930 00:40:21,720專門提供住宅 商業(yè)和汽車財(cái)產(chǎn)保險(xiǎn)63000:40:23,600 00:40:29,510另一類單線保險(xiǎn)公司是健康保險(xiǎn)公司63100:40:29,510 00:40:33,530它們專門為人們的醫(yī)療費(fèi)用提供保險(xiǎn)63200:40:33,530 00:40:38,030另外一個(gè)重要的分類是人壽保險(xiǎn)公司63300:40:42,550 00:40:48,520壽險(xiǎn)公司針對(duì)被保險(xiǎn)人的死亡63400:40:48,520 00:40:51,340向受益人提供保險(xiǎn)63500:40:51,340 00:40:56,500最經(jīng)典也是最重要的例子是家庭保險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃63600:40:57,180 00:41:03,720夫妻雙方都應(yīng)該購買壽險(xiǎn)63700:41:03,720 00:41:05,830但兩份保險(xiǎn)的金額可以有所不同63800:41:05,830 00:41:09,210這適用于有小孩子的家庭以彌補(bǔ)63900:41:09,210 00:41:12,650因父親或母親去世而帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失64000:41:14,070 00:41:16,720之所以父母雙方都要購買保險(xiǎn)64100:41:16,720 00:41:19,730是因?yàn)楦改鸽p方都對(duì)64200:41:19,730 00:41:23,580孩子的成長起著重要的作用64300:41:25,130 00:41:27,030這都是些規(guī)模巨大的行業(yè)64400:41:28,290 00:41:33,8002007年 美國范圍內(nèi)64500:41:33,800 00:41:35,650財(cái)產(chǎn)保險(xiǎn)公司的總資產(chǎn)...64600:41:39,030 00:41:42,210我們把資產(chǎn)寫在這邊64700:41:43,770 00:41:52,01064800:41:54,530 00:42:02,83064900:42:05,940 00:42:07,720遺憾的是 我忘了查健康保險(xiǎn)公司的數(shù)據(jù)了65000:42:07,720 00:42:11,270不過那必將是另外一個(gè)巨額數(shù)字65100:42:11,270 00:42:20,600這些都是我們社會(huì)中極為重要的機(jī)構(gòu)65200:42:20,600 00:42:24,470我們來看財(cái)產(chǎn)保險(xiǎn)公司65300:42:25,430 00:42:27,260他們的保險(xiǎn)標(biāo)的是什么65400:42:30,020 00:42:34,880實(shí)際上 他們最重要的業(yè)務(wù)是汽車保險(xiǎn)65500:42:36,690 00:42:41,450保險(xiǎn)公司在汽車保險(xiǎn)上的保費(fèi)收入65600:42:41,450 00:42:43,870大大多于 大概是6倍于65700:42:43,870 00:42:47,880在住房保險(xiǎn)上的保費(fèi)收入65800:42:51,710 00:42:55,360汽車保險(xiǎn)是碰撞保險(xiǎn)65900:42:55,360 00:42:56,810住房保險(xiǎn)homeowners insurance is–66000:42:56,810 00:42:58,360曾經(jīng)被稱為火災(zāi)保險(xiǎn)[火險(xiǎn)]66100:42:58,360 00:43:02,220如今火險(xiǎn)的可保風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已非常廣泛66200:43:02,220 00:43:04,990這取決于保單中具體包括了哪些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)66300:43:04,990 00:43:07,360其中可能包括他人66400:43:07,360 00:43:10,460在你家里受傷而引起的個(gè)人責(zé)任風(fēng)險(xiǎn)66500:43:10,460 00:43:13,340或者住宅遭遇暴風(fēng)雨66600:43:13,340 00:43:16,320颶風(fēng) 地震 或其他災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)66700:43:16,320 00:43:18,220所以我們稱其為住宅保險(xiǎn)66800:43:18,800 00:43:22,650實(shí)際上 盡管住宅要比汽車值錢的多66900:43:22,650 00:43:24,510但是 汽車保險(xiǎn)要遠(yuǎn)比67000:43:24,540 00:43:26,410住宅保險(xiǎn)重要67100:43:26,410 00:43:29,900我覺得這是因?yàn)槠囀强梢砸苿?dòng)的67200:43:29,900 00:43:32,750車主們開著車到處跑 容易相互碰撞67300:43:32,750 00:43:34,550而住宅則是固定的67400:43:34,550 00:43:36,630所以發(fā)生事故的情況也更少67500:43:36,630 00:43:45,830這就導(dǎo)致保險(xiǎn)公司對(duì)住房保險(xiǎn)收取的保費(fèi)67600:43:45,830 00:43:49,420不會(huì)太高67700:43:51,950 00:43:56,500隨著保險(xiǎn)理論的發(fā)展67800:43:56,500 00:44:02,730保險(xiǎn)合約逐漸被人們認(rèn)同67900:44:02,730 00:44:04,820下面我要講一下保險(xiǎn)的發(fā)展歷程68000:44:04,820 00:44:07,170以及其中一些值得關(guān)注的部分68100:44:23,360 00:44:26,030正如我剛才所提到的68200:44:26,030 00:44:29,660真正的保險(xiǎn)始于17世紀(jì)68300:44:29,660 00:44:32,250這得益于概率論68400:44:32,250 00:44:36,670壽命表以及68500:44:36,670 00:44:39,850精算學(xué)的產(chǎn)生68600:44:39,850 00:44:41,980但是 它的發(fā)展很緩慢68700:44:41,980 00:44:44,360我認(rèn)為之所以導(dǎo)致緩慢發(fā)展在于68800:44:44,400 00:44:47,200保險(xiǎn)學(xué)是一個(gè)非常復(fù)雜的概念68900:44:47,200 00:44:48,990要解釋這一點(diǎn)69000:44:48,990 00:44:52,480我要先在黑板上寫一個(gè)二項(xiàng)分布69100:44:52,480 00:44:54,030以便于解釋清楚這個(gè)問題69200:44:54,030 00:44:57,980這個(gè)概念對(duì)大多數(shù)人來說有些難69300:44:57,980 00:45:00,030我記得我之前提及過其中一些69400:45:00,030 00:45:01,650但還是讓我來講述一下它的歷史69500:45:03,650 00:45:06,490保險(xiǎn)學(xué)產(chǎn)生于17世紀(jì)69600:45:06,490 00:45:08,550但是它的發(fā)展速度并不快69700:45:08,550 00:45:12,780我們甚至可以說它發(fā)展得很慢69800:45:12,780 00:45:16,370一些重要人物以及69900:45:16,370 00:45:21,220重要的創(chuàng)新推動(dòng)了保險(xiǎn)的發(fā)展70000:45:22,340 00:45:24,930我要再一次強(qiáng)調(diào)我的《金融新秩序》70100:45:24,930 00:45:26,440這本著作的主題之一就是70200:45:26,440 00:45:29,840金融創(chuàng)新與保險(xiǎn)創(chuàng)新70300:45:29,840 00:45:33,090是前后相繼的一系列創(chuàng)新活動(dòng)70400:45:33,090 00:45:37,700每一步創(chuàng)新都推動(dòng)著保險(xiǎn)理論向前發(fā)展70500:45:37,700 00:45:40,980這就好比熱力學(xué)定律70600:45:40,980 00:45:43,400為引擎的使用打下了理論基礎(chǔ)70700:45:44,270 00:45:49,190但你不能從熱力學(xué)定律一步跨越到發(fā)明汽車70800:45:49,190 00:45:51,310這中間還要經(jīng)歷成千上萬的步驟70900:45:51,310 00:45:53,680如果你去回顧一下引擎的發(fā)展史71000:45:53,680 00:45:55,630就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)在這進(jìn)程中的取得的各種突破71100:45:55,630 00:45:59,050都源于對(duì)理論更加充分的應(yīng)用71200:45:59,050 00:46:02,260在保險(xiǎn)學(xué)的發(fā)展中也有一系列類似的突破71300:46:03,000 00:46:12,06019世紀(jì)40年代