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ostructure to Exchange Rate – Currency crises in emerging markets (hedge fund) ? How or when start and end (Asia crises, , etc.) ? Efficient market hypotheses(EMH) unsatisfied – The Characteristics of Microstructure approach ? Private information ? price discovery (forecast) ? Heterogeneous player ? explanation of information。 motivation for trade (horizons) ? Different trading mechanisms ? transparency, trade location, decentralization, the use of brokers, system risk. – Two important variables in the FX microstructure ? Order flow: plus ? buy 。 minus ? sell. (transaction volume) active side (passive)。 imbalances absorption (marketmaker)。 private information ? Spreads: testable。 management of trading cost。 effect of trading mechanism ? Relationship between order flow and spread ? permanent (multiple equilibria) Nondealers Learn about fundamentals From direct sources dealers Learn about fundamentals From order flow PRICE Ⅰ Ⅱ Macro asset approaches Microstructure approach Two Stages of Information Processing – Exchangerate Puzzles (information to expectation) ?FX market’s enormous trading volume ? hot potato effect: the passing of unwanted positions (risk management rather than speculation) ?policy implication ?Determination puzzle (less than ab