cge研習(xí)一ppt課件(編輯修改稿)
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【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 eling? Dixon et al. (1992): Notes and Problems in Applied General Equilibrium Economics? Hertel, . (1997): Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications? Dixon et al. (2022): Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling for Forecasting and PolicyDate 17CGE研習(xí)（一）CGE模型的分類模型的分類時間靜態(tài) 動態(tài)國家 區(qū)域數(shù)單國單國靜態(tài)模型 ：DMR, ORANI, TAIGEM, WATERGEM 單國動態(tài)模型 ：TAIGEMD, MONASH, SCREEN多國多國靜態(tài)模型 ：GTAP, MRWATERGEM 多國動態(tài)模型 ：GTEM, GCubed, WorldScan, GREEN, AIM, MESSAGE, IMAGEDate 18CGE研習(xí)（一）CGE的應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域 租稅與財政政策 農(nóng)業(yè)政策 貿(mào)易自由化與貿(mào)易政策 區(qū)域性貿(mào)易協(xié)定 資源政策 (水資源、農(nóng)地 ) 技術(shù)變動 產(chǎn)業(yè)政策 勞動政策與工會行為 環(huán)境政策 綠色租稅改革（雙紅利假說） 溫室氣體減 量（京都彈性機制） 永續(xù)能源 政策 經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展政策 亞洲金融風(fēng)暴Date 19CGE研習(xí)（一）為什麼要採用為什麼要採用 CGE模型？模型？Date 20CGE研習(xí)（一）為什麼要採用為什麼要採用 CGE模型？模型？?? 市場經(jīng)濟(jì)與理論的考量市場經(jīng)濟(jì)與理論的考量?? 市場均衡及資料一致性的考量市場均衡及資料一致性的考量?? 可同時評估總體及產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的影響，並可部門間比較可同時評估總體及產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的影響，並可部門間比較?? 可彈性調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)部門及商品可彈性調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)部門及商品?? 可同時考慮多種政策工具變動的影響可同時考慮多種政策工具變動的影響?? 可用以評估非邊際性變動的衝擊可用以評估非邊際性變動的衝擊?? 多邊協(xié)定與跨國互動的考量，並可進(jìn)行跨國比較多邊協(xié)定與跨國互動的考量，並可進(jìn)行跨國比較?? 最適合用以評估政策的福利效果最適合用以評估政策的福利效果167。 政策之動態(tài)效果的考量政策之動態(tài)效果的考量Date 21CGE研習(xí)（一）Econometric Modeling? Regression estimations? Simultaneous equations? Relies on data size? TimeSeries method? Identification problem? Not appropriate for welfare analysisCGE Modeling? Benchmark data? Deviation from benchmark equilibrium? Explicit specifications ? Handling large movements in relative prices? Welfare analysis? Interindustry Date 22CGE研習(xí)（一）CGE 模型的優(yōu)點模型的優(yōu)點? CGE models are numerical representations of economic theory and intuition.? Can be used to address a broad range of policy issues.? Summarises “second round” effects of policy changes (in circumstances where basic intuition can carry us only so far).? Can be used to depose the effects of policy changes.Date 23CGE研習(xí)（一）Advantages (contd..)? Can be used to track the distributional consequences of policy choices.? Can evaluate feasible policies or “policy packages” in a systematic fashion.? Can assist in policy formulation by permitting parisons across the set of patible policy binations.? CGE models are explicitly structural (do not encounter the identification problems associated with econometric models).Date 24CGE研習(xí)（一）? Modellers are forced to be explicit about assumptions (which can be changed).? Considerable flexibility for altering
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