【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 reflected in the monetary accounts of the buyers and sellers of the energy. “Internalized costs” are increases in monetary costs imposed by measures, such as pollutioncontrol devices, aimed at reducing the external costs.，表現(xiàn)在兩方面的環(huán)境成本上。所謂“外延成本”即由于環(huán)境遭到破壞對(duì)社會(huì)造成的影響，但尚未反映到能源買(mǎi)賣(mài)雙方的交易價(jià)格上；所謂“內(nèi)涵成本”即為降低外延成本而采取的各種措施（如污染防治措施）所引起的貨幣成本的增長(zhǎng)。Both types of environmental costs have been rising for several reasons. First, the declining quality of fuel deposits and energyconversion sites to which society must now turn means more material must be moved or processed, bigger facilities must be constructed and longer distances must be traversed. Second, the growing magnitude of effluents from energy systems has led to saturation of the environment’s capacity to absorb such effluents without disruption. Third, the monetary costs of controlling pollution tend to increase with the percentage of pollutants removed.，原因是多方面的。首先，社會(huì)發(fā)展所依賴(lài)的燃料礦藏和加工地質(zhì)量下降，必然要求礦物運(yùn)輸和加工的數(shù)量增加、設(shè)施擴(kuò)大、運(yùn)輸距離延長(zhǎng)。第二，能源利用所產(chǎn)生的廢棄物不斷增加，使得環(huán)境自我凈化能力達(dá)到了極限。第三，污染防治所需的資金成本亦將隨著消除污染物比例的提高而提高。Despite these expenditures, the remaining uninternalized environmental costs have been substantial and in many cases are growing. Those of greatest concern are the risk of death or disease as a result of emissions or accidents at energy facilities and the impact of energy supplied on the global ecosystem and on international relations.，尚未內(nèi)化的環(huán)境成本一直居高不下，并在許多情形下呈增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)，其中最引人關(guān)注的是由能源設(shè)施排放廢物或發(fā)生事故所帶來(lái)的死亡和疾病，以及由于能源供應(yīng)對(duì)全球生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和國(guó)際關(guān)系造成的影響。The impacts of energy technologies on public health and safety are difficult to pin down with much confidence. In the case of air pollution from fossil fuels, in which the dominant threat to public health is thought to be particulates formed from sulfur dioxide emissions, a consensus on the number of deaths caused by exposure has proved impossible. Widely differing estimates result from different assumptions about fuel positions, air pollution control technology, powerplant sitting in relation to population distribution, meteorological conditions affecting sulfate formation, and, above all, the relation between sulfate concentrations and disease.。以礦物燃料造成的空氣污染為例，一般認(rèn)為其對(duì)大眾健康的主要危害是由排放的二氧化硫形成的微粒，但接觸這種污染空氣究竟會(huì)導(dǎo)致多少人死亡，卻無(wú)法取得一致意見(jiàn)。各種估算數(shù)據(jù)千差萬(wàn)別，原因在于對(duì)以下各種因素的分析各不相同，比如燃料構(gòu)成、空氣污染防治技術(shù)、發(fā)電廠選址同人口分布之間的關(guān)系、氣象條件對(duì)硫化物形成的影響，最重要的是硫化物濃度與疾病之間的關(guān)系。Large uncertainties also apply to the health and safety impacts of nuclear fission. In this case, differing estimates result in part from differences among sites and reactor types, in part from uncertainties about emissions from fuelcycle steps that are not yet fully operational (especially fuel reprocessing and management of uraniummill tailings) and in part from different assumptions about the effects of exposure to lowdose radiation. The biggest uncertainties, however, relate to the probabilities and consequences of large accidents at reactors, at reprocessing plants and in the transport of wastes.，核反應(yīng)堆對(duì)于大眾健康和安全的影響亦無(wú)法確定。對(duì)此種影響的各種估測(cè)，既有來(lái)自關(guān)于反應(yīng)堆選址和類(lèi)型的不同觀點(diǎn)，又有因?yàn)楹巳剂戏磻?yīng)過(guò)程(尤其是核燃料回收以及鈾選礦尾礦管理)還不完備，這些環(huán)節(jié)所產(chǎn)生的廢棄物究竟會(huì)產(chǎn)生何種影響尚無(wú)法確定；同時(shí)還有因?yàn)閷?duì)于人類(lèi)接觸少量核輻射所造成的后果各執(zhí)己見(jiàn)。然而，最大的不確定性來(lái)自核反應(yīng)堆、重新加工工廠以及核廢料運(yùn)輸過(guò)程中可能發(fā)生重大事故的概率及所造成的后果。Altogether, the ranges of estimated hazards to public health from both coalfired and nuclearpower plants are so wide as to extend from negligible to substantial in parison with other risks to the population. There is little basis, in these ranges, for preferring one of these energy sources over the other. For both, the very size of the uncertainty is itself a significant liability.，火電廠和核電廠危害大眾健康的程度究竟有多大，眾說(shuō)紛紜，莫衷一是。有的人認(rèn)為這種影響微不足道，可以忽略不計(jì)；也有人認(rèn)為這種影響程度嚴(yán)重、危害巨大。無(wú)論影響大小，都沒(méi)有理由對(duì)種種能源親此疏彼。無(wú)論是核電還是火電，其對(duì)人類(lèi)的危害都無(wú)法確定，這本身就是一大憾事。Often neglected, but no less important, is the public health menace from traditional fuels widely used for cooking and water heating in the developing world. Perhaps 80 percent of global exposure to particulate air pollution occurs indoors in developing countries, where the smoke from primitive stoves is heavily laden with dangerous hydrocarbons. A disproportionate share of this burden is borne, moreover, by women (who do the cooking) and small children (who indoors with their mothers).，但同樣十分嚴(yán)重。全球大約80%的顆粒空氣污染來(lái)自發(fā)展中國(guó)家的室內(nèi)燒煮，原始爐灶排出的煙氣中含有大量有害的烴（或碳?xì)浠衔铮疫@種有害物質(zhì)的受害者往往是婦女（室內(nèi)燒煮的主要承擔(dān)者）和兒童（長(zhǎng)時(shí)間同母親一起呆在室內(nèi)）。The ecological threats posed by energy supply are even harder to quantify than the threats to human health and safety from effluents and accidents. Nevertheless, enough is known to suggest they portend even larger damage to human wellbeing. This damage potential arises from the bination of two circumstances.，能源利用對(duì)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的威脅更難以量化。然而，根據(jù)已有認(rèn)識(shí)足以判斷這種威脅對(duì)人類(lèi)健康造成的損失將會(huì)更大。這種潛在的損失是由兩種情形同時(shí)存在導(dǎo)致的First, civilization depends heavily on services provided by ecological and geophysical processes such as building and fertilizing soil, regulating water supply, controlling pests and pathogens, and maintaining a tolerable climate。 yet it lacks the knowledge and the resources to replace nature’s services with technology. Second, human activities are now clearly capable of disrupting globally the processes that provide these services. Energy supply, both industrial and traditional, is responsible for a striking share of the environmental impacts of human activity. The environmental transition of the past 100 years － driven above all by a 20fold increase in fossilfuel use and augmented by a tripling in the use of traditional energy forms － has amounted to no less than the emergence of civilization as a global ecological and geochemical force.，人類(lèi)文明嚴(yán)重依賴(lài)于各種生態(tài)和地球物理過(guò)程所提供的各種服務(wù)，諸如造土培肥（或土壤的形成與增肥）、水源調(diào)節(jié)、病蟲(chóng)害控制、適宜氣候的維持等等。但是，人類(lèi)缺乏知識(shí)和資源來(lái)利用技術(shù)代替自然界所提供的各種服務(wù)。其次，人類(lèi)活動(dòng)顯然能夠在全球范圍破壞提供這些服務(wù)的進(jìn)程。無(wú)論是工業(yè)能源還是傳統(tǒng)能源使用，在人類(lèi)活動(dòng)引起的環(huán)境問(wèn)題中均占有很大比重。過(guò)去100年以來(lái)的環(huán)境巨變（首要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素是化石燃料的使用增長(zhǎng)了20倍，同時(shí)傳統(tǒng)能源的使用增長(zhǎng)了3倍），可以說(shuō)無(wú)異于人類(lèi)文明作為一支全球范圍內(nèi)的生態(tài)和地球化學(xué)力量的崛起過(guò)程。Of all environmental problems, the most threatening, and in many respects the most intractable, is global climate change. And the greenhouse gases most responsible for the danger of rapid climate change e largely from human endeavors too massive, widespread and c