【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 e to Wells Fargo. 36 Paper task(20分 ) ? impact of RMB appreciation to China?s export. ? will US financial crisis affect China?s economy? ? Requirement: ? 條理清楚，內(nèi)容充實，文題相符； ? 二選一，字?jǐn)?shù) 6000（字符） 37 influence on share prices ? Points that influence the share price： ?The financial situation of the pany。 ?The situation of the industry in which the pany operates。 ?The state of the economy in general。 ?The beliefs of investors。 ? When pricesensitive（價格敏感） information arrives, a share price will change. 38 Predicting prices ? Theories to predict share prices: ?The random walk hypothesis（隨機游走假設(shè)） : the daytoday change of stock prices are pletely random（隨意的） or unpredictable（不可預(yù)測的） . ?The efficient market hypothesis（有效市場假設(shè)） : share prices always accurately or exactly reflect all relevant information. 39 ?Technical analysis（技術(shù)分析） : studying past share prices to forecast future price changes. ?Fundamental analysis（基本面分析） : the analysis of macroeconomic indexes, capital markets and political factors. time price Left shoulder head Right shoulder neckline sell Head and shoulders pattern 頭肩圖形 40 Types of risk ? Unsystematic risk（非系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險） : things that affect individual panies, such as production problems, which can be reduced by making a diversified portfolio（分散化的投資組合） . ? Systematic risk（系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險） : things that affect the whole market, cannot be avoided by diversification（分散化） . If a stock market falls, all the shares listed on it will fall to some extent. 41 Describing charts and graphs ? Increase and decrease Upward movement （向上運動） verbs nouns to rise to increase a rise an increase to grow to climb a growth an improvement to improve to get better 42 Increase and decrease Downward movement （向下運動） verbs nouns to fall to decrease a fall a decrease to decline to deteriorate a drop a decline to drop to get worse a deterioration 43 Rate of change Large changes Fast changes Regular changes considerable dramatic sharp significant substantial abruptabruptly quickquickly rapidrapidly suddensuddenly gradualgradually steadysteadily Small changes Slow changes moderate slight slow slowly 44 High points, low points, and staying the same To reach the highest point To reach the lowest point To peak To top out to reach a peak To hit bottom To bottom out To reach a low point To stay at the same level To go up and down To remain stable To stabilize To remain constant To level off To fluctuate 45 Bonds ? Bonds are loans to local and national governments and to large panies. ? Bondholders are creditors, not owners, of a corporation. ? The holders of bonds generally receive fixed interest payments（固定利息支付） , once or twice a year, and get their principal（本金） back on a given maturity date（到期日） . 46 ? In Britain, government bonds are known as giltedged stock（金邊債券） 。 In the US, they are called Treasury notes（國庫券） , which have a maturity of 210years, and Treasury bonds, with a maturity of 1030 years. ? A municipal bond(地方債券 ) is a debt issue of a state or political subdivision（政治機構(gòu)） , such as county, city, township, or village. 47 secured bonds ? A secured bond is backed by specific pledges(抵押 ) of pany assets. ? Mortgage bonds（抵押債券） are backed by real and personal property owned by the firm, such as machinery or furniture. ? Collateral trust bonds（ 間接信用債券 ） are backed by stocks and bonds of other panies owned by borrowing firm. ? Equipment trust certificate(設(shè)備信托債券 ), railroads and airline panies use rolling stock(全部車輛 ) and airplanes as collateral（ 擔(dān)保品 ） . 48 Unsecured bonds ? Debenture(信用債券 ): a bond backed only by the reputation of the issuing corporation or governmental unit. ? Junk bonds（垃圾債券） : pay a high interest rate but with a low credit rating. 49 Other types of bonds ? Convertible shares（可轉(zhuǎn)換債券） or convertibles: pay lower interest rates than ordinary bonds, because the buyer gets the chance of making a profit with the convertible option. ? Zero coupon bonds（零息債券） : pay no interest but sold at a discount on their par value （票面價值） , and repaid at 100% at maturity. 50 Credit rating ? Governments issue bonds to raise money and there is almost no risk that the borrower will default(違約 ). ? Companies issue bonds, called corporate bonds, which should be given credit ratings（信用分級） by credit agencies, according to their ability to repay the loan to the bondholders. ? The highest grade is known as AAA, or Aaa, lower grades are Baa, BBB,C, etc. 51 Derivatives ? Derivatives（衍生品） are financial products whose value is derived from（源自） another financial product, such as a stock, a stock market index, or interest rate payments. ? They can be used to manage the risks associated with securities, to protect against fluctuations in value（價值波動） , or to speculate. 52 Forward contracts ? Forward contracts are agreements by two parties to engage in a financial transaction at a future point in time. ? The advantage of forward contracts is that they can be as flexible as the parties involved want them to be. 53 ? However, forward contracts suffer from two problems that severely limit their usefulness. ? The first is that it may be very hard for an institution to find another party to make the contract with。 ? The second is that forward contracts are subject to default risk（違約風(fēng)險 ） . 54 Futures ? Forward（遠(yuǎn)期） and future contracts（期貨合約） both are agreements to sell an asset at a fixed price on a fixed date in the future. ? Futures are standardized(標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的 ) contracts, with fixed quantities, fixed time periods, traded on a special exchange. ? Forwards are individual, nonstandardized contracts between two par