【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 n capacity are vulnerable (although speciality niches help profitability) ? Long term structural overcapacity Recent mergers and alliances create an uncertain oute for Dutch oil 19 Of the Netherlands refineries, only Shell and Esso have the upgrading flexibility to meet future demands with only limited investment Source: IEA。 Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, RBamp。P analysis FCC equivalent conversion capacity (% distillation capacity) Distillation capacity MT/year 01020304050607080901000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2012% 25% 99% 9 37% KPI Europoort Total/DOW Vlissingen Esso Rotterdam Shell Pernis Nerefco (BP/Texaco) Europoort 34% EU Refineries average 66% 38% Germany 40% United Kingdom 24% France 23% Belgium Average Conversion Capacities 54% The Netherlands 20 In addition, the Netherlands attempts to lead rather than go with European environmental legislation ? EU has set new product specifications But ? No ‘level playing field’ for refinery emissions at EU level ? Enforcement of regulations stricter in Netherlands ? Inconsistencies between National, Regional and Municipal authorities Dutch Oil Sector 21 The cost of cleanup regulations in Rotterdam is distorting the incentives for the oil industry to release unused land but The LoseLose oute can only change to WinWin by altering the incentives for land release ? Cleanup costs in EU are between NLG 100m NLG 400m per refinery (~NLG 60120/m2) ? Even where plants have closed, oil industry has incentive to retain land and pay rent rather than pay immediate cleanup cost ? Similar economics constrain release of surplus land from storage terminals ? Projected shortage of land for expansion is driving Maasvlakte 2 project ? Cost of land reclamation is expensive and will be borne by taxpayer initially (NLG 500/m2) 22 Government policy is seen to focus solely on Rotterdam, partly as a consequence of Main Port Policy Vlissingen ? Only one jetty terminal (up to 120,000 dwt) ? Isolated from natural gas pipelines When chemical panies found Rotterdam unfavourable, Antwerp was chosen above other Dutch ports Amsterdam ? Growth limited by water depth/ship size ? Lack of refining limits synergies between oil and chemicals 23 . Opportunities 24 There are opportunities for new businesses or substantial extensions to existing activities Energy Pipelines ? Electricity cogeneration ? Low level heat collection and distribution ? CO2 collection for greenhouses ? Common carrier to reduce transport costs and meet environmental aims ? Ethylene pipeline for chemicals High valueadded production Storage ? Upgrade products for refineries unable to meet environmental specs ? High quality product strategy for export to premium markets ? Push for higher share of chemicals growth ? Use excess storage to hold strategic stocks for whole EU 25 Overcapacity is a longterm problem that needs to be addressed by industry but may be helped by Government assistance ? Focuses investment on areas of strength ? There is potential for individual plant closures ? Recent mergers/cluster approach may lead to new binations Opportunity Action Aim ? Strongest units operate near fuel capacity ? Land would be made available for port expansion Government Introduce incentives for cleanup of former or surplus sites Best use of unused land Companies optimise within international works Focus on strong petitive units Government