麥肯錫-加州電力危機咨詢(英)(編輯修改稿)
2024-11-12 06:54 本頁面
【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 rdinated approval process by the PUC, ISO, CEC, and FERC 4. A formal capacity market bined with a mandatory planning reserve target (., 1520%) needs to be in place by 2021 5. The State should reintroduce elements of retail choice, providing an opportunity for large consumers to shop for power ? CEC estimates indicate that operating reserves could drop below typical “emergency” levels if we have a hot summer ? Unfortunately, the CEC’s demand estimates appear low relative to trend and a “high demand case” (., hot summer) may be as likely as a 1in5 occurrence ? Taking into account realistic levels of future demand, operating reserves could be extremely tight by 2021 – as low as % (in a 1in5 year demand case) 7 01020304050607080901002021 2021 2021 2021 2021MARKETBASED LONGTERM CONTRACTS SHOULD BE ADOPTED TO FACILITATE GENERATION CONSTRUCTION … and what market based prices would look like under the contracts DWR contract price (2021 average) California cost of generation Dollars per MWh Capacity payment** Electricity price under new marketbased contracts* ILLUSTRATIVE * Allin wholesale electricity price including capacity payment, gas price, energy costs ** Assumes 15% ROE, 8% cost of debt, $450/kW CCGT investment cost, 10year return period Source: California DWR。 NYMEX。 McKinsey analysis How contracts would work… Who will buy: ? In the near term, utilities will be responsible for signing contracts with the winning bidders, with guaranteed rate recovery of contract costs Who will build: ? Competitive RFP process allowing utility affiliates or merchant generators to bid How will contracts be priced: ? Will be market based contracts, with an ROE on capital investment and pass through of variable generation costs – Capacity payment will provide return on capital investment – Energy payment will be based on a specified plant efficiency and indexed to natural gas prices 1 8 THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SOURCES OF CAPACITY THAT COULD BE BROUGHT ON LINE BY 2021 IF THE STATE ACTS NOW * Includes projects under construction delayed more than 24 months from initial planned online date ** Assumes most of these plants are 40% plete (as of July 2021) Source: California Energy Commission。 McKinsey analysis Plants partly constructed , but inplete due to financing or lack of contracts* Plants with permits from the CPUC but not under construction 0 . 53 . 76 . 5California capacity Gigawatts Estimated time to online Months Plants that have been mothballed, but could be brought back on line To ensure new capacity is brought on line by the summer of 2021, the CPUC must act now to ensure that longterm contracts are available to generators to plete existing projects Steps to bring capacity online ? Relaxed environmental restrictions ? Short term contracts ? ., E
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