【正文】 omics, International Consultant EU – China Current global economic + political challenges (2) 目前全球經濟與政治所面臨的挑戰(zhàn) Due to the globalisation this crises leads towards highly unpredictable chain risk reactions 由于全球化，這場危機將會導致不可預期的連鎖風險反應。 他們怎樣才能繼續(xù)生存？ 2022/3/13 20 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Financial + Banking crises (5) 金融業(yè)與銀行業(yè)危機 How to get rid of the government debts? The US print money and the rest of the world has to buy and to rescue the US. But for how long? 如何擺脫政府債務 困境 ？ 美國印刷美元，其他國家 被迫 購買 并以此來 拯救美國。 2022/3/13 31 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Natural Disasters (2) 自然災害 The climate change will impact our living standards. The CO2 output and the melting of the ice on the poles can39。 2022/3/13 36 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China China Crash 2022 ? (1) 2022年中國快速發(fā)展崩盤？ The research paper analyses the situation of 4 previous booming nations since 1957: Germany, Argentina, Japan, Korea. In a 2nd step it pared the results with the situation in China 該研究舉例分析了自 1957年以來德國，阿根廷， 日本及韓國的快速發(fā)展情況 .而后的第二步， 他們將得出的結論與中國的現(xiàn)狀相對比。 它的可能性是確實須要引起重視。 問題是：怎樣應對和誰來應對？ 2022/3/13 50 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (2) 企業(yè)風險管理的原理與概念 The old risk concept was a “silo – approach” Everybody handled the risks in his own sector and only when they occurred. 以往的風險 管理 概念是 “ 獨立方案 ” 。 2022/3/13 54 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (6) 企業(yè)風險管理的原理與概念 ERM classifies the pany in internal external stakeholders. Both groups fight for their conflicting interests. The job of the Top Management is to handle and to balance these interests. 企業(yè)風險管理將企業(yè)分為內部和外部 利益相關者 。 整個課程用時三年，我們提供生產部門，銀行業(yè)，保險業(yè)務（精算學 ). 2022/3/13 59 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (11) 企業(yè)風險管理的原理與概念 ERM science text books contain of about 10000 pages. preconditions are: University study + business experience + three languages 企業(yè)風險管理教科書 大約有 一萬頁內容。 2022/3/13 71 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (9) 企業(yè)風險管理的關鍵原則 Every decision is risky. Even a nondecision is a decision, but 100 times more risky. 每一個決定都有風險。 2022/3/13 78 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The 5 Risk Components (1) 風險的 5個組成部分 Exposure = maximum amount we can lose? 曝光性 = 可損失的最大數(shù)額？ Volatility = variability of certain outes of risks 波動性 = 特 定結果的風險 的 可變性 Probability = how likely can a risk occur? 可能性 = 風險發(fā)生可能？ Severity = how high is the real damage if the risk occurs? 嚴重性 = 如果風險發(fā)現(xiàn)，真實的損失有多高？ Horizon = when can the risk occur? 水平線 = 風險何時發(fā)生？ 2022/3/13 79 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The 5 Risk Components (2) 風險的 5個組成部分 the people on the street only look at the probability excellent leaders look at the severity 普通民眾只關心其可能性。 2022/3/13 84 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Risk classification (1) 風險分類 The ERM classifies into internal external risks 企業(yè)風險管理將風險分為內部風險和外部風險。 這就是為什么企業(yè)風險管理需要風險矩陣的原因。 要想把風險變?yōu)闄C遇，我們需要企業(yè)風險管理培訓。 2022/3/13 61 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (13) 企業(yè)風險管理的原理與概念 In the US and EU, ERM is pulsory For listed panies due to laws, .: 在美國和歐洲， 有關法律規(guī)定所有上市公司必須執(zhí)行企業(yè)風險管理 US: SOX 404 ( Sarbanes Oxley Act No. 404 ) 美國： 《 2022年薩班斯 奧克利斯法案 》 的 404條款 Germany : Act of Risk + Transparency 德國：風險與透明度法案 2022/3/13 62 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (14) 企業(yè)風險管理的原理與概念 EU: Risk + Solvency Solution Act 歐盟：風險 + 清償能力解決法案 Banking industry: Basle 1, 2, 3 Accord 銀行業(yè)：巴塞爾協(xié)議 1， 2， 3 Insurance Industry: Solvency 2 Law 保險業(yè)：清償能力制度修改草案 2022/3/13 63 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (1) 企業(yè)風險管理的關鍵原則 We regard all functions, projects, tasks from the risk perspective on all levels of the pany and through the whole work flow management. 我們把所有的職能 、 項目 和任務 都看作為以企業(yè)各個層 面 的風險觀點出發(fā)， 并 貫穿整個工作流程 的 管理。 2022/3/13 56 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (8) 企業(yè)風險管理的原理與概念 That is why ERM is also called “Integrated Enterprise Risk Management Approach” 這就是為什么企業(yè)風險管理也可稱為 “ 綜合企業(yè)風險管理方法 ” 。 2022/3/13 52 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (4) 企業(yè)風險管理的原理與概念 The ERM concept regards a pany as a human being: Body, soul, heart, emotions, energy – all is one and interdependent. The ERM concept follows the Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) – thinking. 企業(yè)風險管理理論將企業(yè)看作為一個自然人： 身體，靈魂，心，情感，精力 – 渾然一體 ，相互依賴。 2022/3/13 47 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Interim results (5) 中期結論 However: Where there are risks there are chances too. Where there are losers there ar