【正文】 金融業(yè)與銀行業(yè)危機(jī) Macro – economic an inflation – strategy would be the historical answer. But inflation kills debts and wealth!! 縱觀 歷史 答案將是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì) 層面的 通貨膨脹。 2022/3/13 26 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The North African + Middle East crises (1) 北非與中東危機(jī) Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq – all countries show war, riots, revolutions ? and huge social, political, economical disasters. 突尼斯，埃及，利比亞，敘利亞，也門，巴林，伊朗，伊拉克 – 這些國(guó)家都在經(jīng)歷著戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，暴動(dòng)與革命 ? 以及巨大的社會(huì)，政治，經(jīng)濟(jì)災(zāi)難。t be stopped anymore. 氣候變化將會(huì)影響我們的生活水準(zhǔn)。 中國(guó)一些地區(qū)也處于地震活躍帶。 2022/3/13 37 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China China Crash 2022 ? (2) 2022年中國(guó)快速發(fā)展崩盤？ It found 9 statistical facts: 研究發(fā)現(xiàn) 9項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)： 7 facts have a strong impact to increase the crash probability 2 facts have an impact to decrease the crash probability (The prediction is based on a quantitative multivariance regression analysis) 其中 7項(xiàng)可嚴(yán)重增長(zhǎng)快速發(fā)展崩盤可能性， 另外兩項(xiàng)可降低快速發(fā)展崩盤可能性。 2022/3/13 40 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China China Crash 2022 ? (5) 2022年中國(guó)快速發(fā)展崩盤？ How is the reality of the Chinese education system today? If it is far away from international standard, how can it be improved? 然而，目前中國(guó)的教育水平是怎樣的呢？ 如果我們教育水平還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不及國(guó)際化標(biāo)準(zhǔn)， 那我們?cè)撊绻岣呶覀兊乃侥兀? 2022/3/13 41 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Questions (1) 問(wèn)題 How is China prepared? The China Risk Report indicates about 20 major weaknesses. The economic consequences following these major risks bear huge financial burdens. 中國(guó)準(zhǔn)備 得如何 ？ 中國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 調(diào)查 報(bào)告顯示大約 20種主要 風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 。 中國(guó)能夠或者必須做些什么呢？ 2022/3/13 43 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Interim results (1) 中期結(jié)論 Speed and knowledge today are the key factors for an enterprise to survive 今天，速度與知識(shí)是決定企業(yè)生死存亡的關(guān)鍵因素。 有輸家就有贏家。 而 且僅僅是當(dāng) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生時(shí)， 每個(gè)人 才負(fù)責(zé) 應(yīng)對(duì)自己的部分。 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論遵循的是傳統(tǒng)中醫(yī)思維。 這兩個(gè)團(tuán)體都在為沖突的利益而斗爭(zhēng)。 2022/3/13 57 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Theory + Concept of ERM (9) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原理與概念 Problem: It takes about 3 years until the whole pany understands and follows the ERM concept. It is a never ending process. It costs money in its implementation stage. It needs huge training efforts and it starts from top to down. But it brings big advantages. 問(wèn)題是： 要整個(gè)企業(yè)理解和遵循企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理大概需要 3年時(shí)間， 整個(gè)過(guò)程沒(méi)有結(jié)尾，在實(shí)行階段需要大量資金， 需要投入大量的培訓(xùn)， 改變只能自 上而下 發(fā)生。 學(xué)習(xí)的 前提 是 ：大學(xué) 畢業(yè) ， 有 工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)和 會(huì) 三種語(yǔ)言。 2022/3/13 64 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (2) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 All risks must be measurable in figures (%, RMB, numbers) Risks which are not measurable must be deleted. 所有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都必須被量 化 為具體數(shù)值（ 百分比 ，元或數(shù)字） 不可測(cè)量 的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)必須被刪除 。 甚至不 做 決定也是一個(gè)決定， 而不做決定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更是百倍于其它。 2022/3/13 73 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The key principles of ERM are (11) 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的關(guān)鍵原則 Logic behind: every action has a reason (past) every action has a chain reaction (future) 背后的邏輯： 每一個(gè)行為都有其原因（過(guò)去） 每一個(gè)行為都有其連鎖反 應(yīng) （將來(lái)） 2022/3/13 74 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Advantages (1) of the ERM concept 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的優(yōu)點(diǎn) ERM driven panies 采用企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的企業(yè) store and structure their knowledge in special EDP systems 利用特殊的專業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù) 存儲(chǔ)并 架構(gòu)知識(shí)體系 are 25 % more intelligent than others 比其他企業(yè)明智 25% act professional on all levels 在各個(gè) 層 面 的表現(xiàn) 更為專業(yè) 2022/3/13 75 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Advantages (2) of the ERM concept 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的優(yōu)點(diǎn) ERM driven panies 采用企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的企業(yè) can measure 80 % of all actions 可衡量 80%的行為后果 show a high degree of interaction + internal munication 表現(xiàn)出高度的互動(dòng)性及內(nèi)部交流 run their controlling systems on EVA basis 基于 經(jīng)濟(jì)附加值基礎(chǔ)上 的控制 體系 increase the internal efficiency ratio with over 50 % in general 內(nèi)部效率 普遍 增長(zhǎng)超過(guò) 50% 2022/3/13 76 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Advantages (3) of the ERM concept 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的優(yōu)點(diǎn) ERM driven panies 進(jìn)行企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的企業(yè) get between 25 % and 55 % more profit (EBIT) after implementation 實(shí)行后利潤(rùn) (息稅前收益 EBIT)可增加 25%到 55% the staffs are much higher motivated 員工 積極性更高 the fluctuation ratio decreases with about 50 % 員工流動(dòng)率減少 50% 2022/3/13 77 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The implementation of ERM 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的實(shí)行 The Chief Risk Officer (CRO) today is a member of the Board He leads the risk department, often a part of the Controlling department His credo is: “no surprise”! Whatever may happen, he has a fast solution 現(xiàn)在，首席風(fēng)險(xiǎn)官是董事會(huì)的一員， 其所負(fù)責(zé)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)部門，通常作為控制部門的一部分。 卓越的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人更關(guān)注其嚴(yán)重性。 2022/3/13 82 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China The Risk Capital 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本 At the end of all assessments and measurements ERM evaluates the capital to finance the risk. 在所有評(píng)定和測(cè)量之后， 企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 需 評(píng)估 應(yīng)對(duì) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所需資金。 2022/3/13 85 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, International Consultant EU – China Risk classification (2) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分類 Internal Risks include: Hazard + operational risks 內(nèi)部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括： 危害及操作風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 2022/3/13 86 柯朗。 因此，保險(xiǎn)成為資金的替代品。 如： 汽車 + 事故 /非典 /買方違約 /地震 2022/3/13 81 柯朗 WolfBernhard KERSTEN, Professor of Economics, I