【正文】 s president, who is also a renowned tenor, tells China Daily. During a tour in 1985, he went to a village and met an elderly local man, who told him a story about his friendship with a solider from Shenyang, capital of Northeast China39。s Zhangye city during their journey to Kazakhstan, May 5, 2022. The caravan, consisting of more than 100 camels, three horsedrawn carriages and four support vehicles, started the trip from Jingyang county in Shaanxi on Sept 19, 2022. It will pass through Gansu province and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, and finally arrive in Almaty, formerly known as AlmaAta, the largest city in Kazakhstan, and Dungan in Zhambyl province. The trip will cover about 15,000 kilometers and take the caravan more than one year to plete. The caravan is expected to return to Jingyang in March 2022. Then they will e back, carrying specialty products from Kazakhstan A small art troupe founded six decades ago has grown into a household name in the Inner Mongolia autonomous region. In the 1950s, Ulan Muqir Art Troupe was created by nine young musicians, who toured remote villages on horses and performed traditional Mongolian music and dances for nomadic families. The 54yearold was born in Tongliao, in eastern Inner Mongolia and joined the troupe in says there are 74 branch troupes across Inner Mongolia and actors give around 100 shows every year to local nomadic people. I can still recall the days when I toured with the troupe in the early 39。另一方面， 可以加大資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務(wù)，讓個(gè)人投資者通過理財(cái)機(jī)構(gòu)的渠道進(jìn)行投資，從而避免了投資者的盲目性和機(jī)械性。而在美國，當(dāng) 投資者需要進(jìn)行融資融券投資時(shí)，其賬戶中至少得有兩千美元的現(xiàn)金。因此，應(yīng)該把保護(hù)投資者利益 作 為根本目的對(duì)保證金比例進(jìn)行調(diào)整，才能正確的找到最佳的保證金比例。 因此，要提高證券市場運(yùn)行的有效前提一直就是要加強(qiáng)信息的披露。 五、 政策 性 建議 通過實(shí)證部分的研究與總結(jié)， 明白 融資融券與我國證券市場的波動(dòng)性密不可分，且融資融券對(duì)我國證券市場有著積極的作用，可以更加完善和豐富我國的證券市場整體性。融券相較與融資對(duì)股票指數(shù)的變動(dòng)性解釋程度更好一點(diǎn)。 表 6 VAR 模型最優(yōu)滯后期數(shù)的確定 滯后階數(shù) LOGL FPE AIC SC HQ 0 1 * * 2 3 4 * 畢業(yè)論文：正文 13 5 6 7 * 8 確立最佳滯后期數(shù)后，建立 VAR 模型，結(jié)果如下。融券余量是股票市場波動(dòng)性的格蘭杰原因，而股票市場波動(dòng)性不是融券余量的格蘭杰原因 。 并且，將 獨(dú)處的條件方差序列作為描述深成綜合指數(shù)波動(dòng)率的數(shù)據(jù)，記為 VOL。 本文用于 數(shù)據(jù)處理和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn) 的軟件主要是 軟件。隨著此類股票受到遭到大批拋售，供需失衡的局面將會(huì)得到緩解，股價(jià)上非理性上漲的勢頭將會(huì)得到遏制，供給會(huì)一定程度的起到施壓的作用；與此同時(shí)，空方力量的繼續(xù)增大將會(huì)驅(qū)動(dòng)股價(jià)回歸均衡。隨著 這些 股票受到大批資金的青睞，供需失衡的局面將會(huì)得到緩解，股價(jià)下跌的趨勢將會(huì)得到 一定的抑制，需求會(huì)一定程度 地 起到托盤的作用。第四，現(xiàn)階段國家對(duì)于業(yè)務(wù)的利率成本有所規(guī)定，而年化成年利率相對(duì)較高，這種過高的融資成本也大大限制了業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模的發(fā)展。最后得出結(jié)論為融資融券機(jī)制可以平抑股票市場價(jià)格的波動(dòng)性。研究結(jié)果表明，做空額和臺(tái)灣股票價(jià)格指數(shù)呈現(xiàn)協(xié)整關(guān)系，股票價(jià)格指數(shù)是做空額的 格 蘭杰原因，而反之卻不成立。沒有任何證據(jù)表明，改變保證金要求 會(huì) 降低后續(xù)股票收益的波動(dòng)性，即融資融券對(duì)股票市場的波動(dòng)性沒有什么影響。當(dāng)股票價(jià)格有上揚(yáng)趨勢時(shí)，理性投資者對(duì)該股票的需求就會(huì)增大，從而進(jìn)一步地推進(jìn)股票價(jià)格的上漲，最終使得股票價(jià)格偏離均衡價(jià)格；同理，當(dāng)股票價(jià)格顯下挫趨勢時(shí)，理性投資者對(duì)該股票的需求就會(huì)減小，從而進(jìn)一步地推進(jìn)股票價(jià)格的下落，最終也會(huì)使得股票價(jià)格偏離均衡價(jià)格。盡管如此，眾學(xué)者們研究之后所得出的結(jié)果都是值得研習(xí)的。而融資融券對(duì)于股票市場的波動(dòng)性是產(chǎn)生了抑制作用還是促進(jìn)作用，又或者沒有影響，我們尚未得知。以上證指數(shù)為例， 1990 年 12 月 19日，上證指數(shù)為 ，是其歷史最低點(diǎn)。s securities market has been further improved in theory． In this paper, in consideration of the features, functions and risks of margin, probing into this kind relationship to study both is of the theoretical and practical significance. This paper has done empirical analysis through GARCH model and VAR model. The study found that the margin can suppress the volatility of the stock market, but the impact is minimal. Also this paper found that the inhibitory effect is greater than the margin financing effect. Finally, based on empirical results, this paper has given some reasonable suggestions on margin regulations. Keywords: Margin trading, volatility, GARCH model, VAR model 畢業(yè)論文：正文 4 正文目錄 一、引言 .................................................................................................................... I 5 二、文獻(xiàn)綜述 ............................................................................................................ I 6 （一）國外文獻(xiàn) ................................................................................................ I 6 （二）國內(nèi)文獻(xiàn) ................................................................................................ I 7 三、背景介紹 ............................................................................................................ I 8 四、理論分析 ............................................................................................................ I 8 五 、實(shí)證分析 .......................................................................................................... I 10 （一） GARCH 模型的構(gòu)建 ........................................................................... I 10 （二） VAR 模型的構(gòu)建 ................................................................................. I 12 六 、結(jié)論 .................................................................................................................. I 15 七 、政策性建議 ...................................................................................................... I 15 （一）加速建設(shè)融資融券法規(guī)制度 .............................................................. I 15 （二）完善保證金制度 .................................................................................. I 16 （三）加強(qiáng)投資者教育 .................................................................................. I 17 （四）提高證券公司內(nèi)部建設(shè) ...................................................................... I 17 參考文獻(xiàn) .................................................................................................................. I 18 畢業(yè)論文：正文 5 一、引言 融資融券作為一種信用交易，其含義為向客戶出借資金供其買入證券或者出借證券供其賣出，并收取擔(dān)保物的經(jīng)營活動(dòng)。 2022 年 3 月 31 日，我國推出了融資融券交易機(jī)制，隨著融資融券的正式啟動(dòng)， A 股市場告別了多年的單邊做多機(jī)制，成為我國證券市場發(fā)展的里程碑。最后，本文基于實(shí)證結(jié)果給出了一些合理的融資融券規(guī)章制度的建議。 我國推出融資融券交易相較于其他發(fā)達(dá)國家要晚許多。經(jīng)過發(fā)展，融資融券標(biāo)的股票不斷增加，融資融券交易量與余額越來越大。最后，針對(duì)所得出的結(jié)論，結(jié)合我國證券市場的實(shí)際情況，提出一些政策性方面的建議。第二，融資融券與股票市場的波動(dòng)性沒有相關(guān)關(guān)系，即融資融券機(jī)制不會(huì)對(duì)股票市場的波動(dòng)性造成影響。 Porter and Smith（ 2022）通過實(shí)驗(yàn)研究，同樣得出了賣空機(jī)制（即融資融券機(jī)制）不能顯著地減少市場的泡沫體積和泡沫持續(xù)時(shí)間。Charoenrook and Daouk（ 2022）通過對(duì) 111 個(gè)國家的股票市場的研究發(fā)現(xiàn) ， 允許賣空的市場比禁止賣空的市場的波動(dòng)性要低得多。 楊德勇 和 吳瓊（ 2022）利用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)