外文翻譯--中國的人口老齡化-全文預(yù)覽
【正文】 iew the ongoing pension and health care reforms initiated by the government as strategies to meet the demands of an aging population. In the conclusion, we discuss the dilemma that the government faces in balancing economic development and providing adequate oldage support. Lastly, we review some alternative policy options and potential opportunities China may have in addressing this global population problem of the 21 st century. 2 An Accelerated Model of Mortality and Fertility Decline As one of the oldest human societies in existence, China’ s population history up to the twentieth century fits the description of the pretransitional stage of the classic model of demographic transition. Under a high fertility and high mortality regime, the population fluctuated between 37 and 60 million in size for over a thousand years prior to the 17 th century。 Zunzunegui et al. 2020). Using census and survey data collected around2020, Zeng et al. (Forthing) macrosimulated thetrend in elderly living arrangements under the mediumassumptions on fertility, mortality, ruralurban migration,marriage and divorce. Despite being a conservativeestimate (given that it does not take changingpreference into account), their projection showed thatthe average household size would decrease from per household in 2020 to in 2020 and 2050 and that the proportion of the elderly aged 65+ living in “ emptynest” households would triple that of the 2020 level. 5 Government and Institutional Support for Elderly As described above, the traditional family structureand family support system has undergone some major shifts in China. Facing the possibility of an undermined informal old age support system, it is imperative for the government to strengthen its role in public support. In the following section we outline three systems at different stages of policy development,
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