【正文】 ronmental pollution. Particularly in densely populated areas, and such accidents often cause serious injuries and significant economic losses, also brought adverse social and political influence. Risk factors of influence buried oil pipeline system security is numerous, theirs relations is intricate. Firstly,we adopts the method of fault tree analysis to qualitative analyse crude oil pipeline in this paper, and straighten out the relationship between the various risk factors, and find out mon failure form of pipe system and the most important risk factors. After hazard identify crude oil pipeline system, this paper studied semiquantitative risk assessment techniques which acquire widely applied pipeline risk score extensive investigation, and in bination with the specific conditions of onshore oil pipeline,we made improvement of the method. Made pipeline risk evaluation method is more prehensive, more reasonable and more applicable for crude oil pipeline system risk evaluation. Studied theory of risk acceptably assessment of the crude oil pipeline system ,calculated using normal distribution criterion, given calculation. Secondly, considering the event of failure of pipeline leak can cause very serious this paper, we analyzed the leak rules, conveying diffusion rule and hazard analysis theory, establish the theory system of leak diffusion and disaster on this basis to develop pipeline leak disaster assessment system. Using this system can do simulation before the accident and evaluation after the on simulation assessment results to formulate the corresponding emergency plans, which can rapidly judgment disaster’s scope and extent when leaking accident occurs, reduce accident loss of accident. Finally, we made risk assessments on the MaGuang longdistance crude oil pipelines by using the theoretical results of previous researches to find out the highrisk section of the four indices, the high likelihood section of pipe failure, the section of the most serious consequences of leakage and highrisk pipe, then put forward measures to reduce risks. Through the parison of the risk assessment results with the accident statistics and the daily operation and maintenance experience of MaGuang longdistance crude oil pipelines, the method which is studed in this paper can accurately find out highrisk pipe and determine significant risks and main factors. Therefore, it can show that this method can meet longdistance oil pipeline risk assessment requirements, the result is reasonable and accurate and can provide a theoretical basis for pipeline operators to formulate risk reduction measures and management decisions. Key words： Crude oil pipeline。 Fault tree analysis III 目 錄 第 1 章 緒論 .......................................................... 1 課題來(lái)源 ....................................................... 1 研究的目的及意義 ............................................... 1 增加管道系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行的安全性 ................................... 1 提高管道公司運(yùn)營(yíng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)性 ................................... 1 國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 ................................................. 2 國(guó)外研究現(xiàn)狀 ............................................... 2 國(guó)內(nèi)研究現(xiàn)狀 ............................................... 2 主要研究?jī)?nèi)容及技術(shù)路線 ......................................... 3 主要研究?jī)?nèi)容 ............................................... 3 技術(shù)路線 ................................................... 4 第 2 章 原油管線危害辨識(shí)故障樹(shù)分析研究 ................................ 5 基本概念 ....................................................... 5 陸上原油管線失效故障樹(shù)分析 ..................................... 5 陸上原油管線失效故障樹(shù)的建立 ............................... 6 陸上原油管線失效故障樹(shù)的定性分析 ........................... 8 第 3 章 輸油管線相對(duì)失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)算方法研究 .............................. 9 管道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)分法概述 ............................................. 9 管道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)分法的基本模型 ................................... 9 管線分段 ................................................... 9 輸油管線相對(duì)失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的計(jì)算 .................................... 10 第三方破壞指數(shù)評(píng)分 ........................................ 10 腐蝕指數(shù)評(píng)分 .............................................. 14 設(shè)計(jì)指數(shù)評(píng)分 .............................................. 22 誤操作指數(shù)評(píng)分 ............................................ 27 輸油管線相對(duì)失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ...................................... 31 第 4 章 輸油管線相對(duì)失效后果及相對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究 ........................... 32 概述 .......................................................... 32 泄漏后果指數(shù)的評(píng)定 ............................................ 32 產(chǎn)品危 害 .................................................. 32 擴(kuò)散系數(shù) .................................................. 35 泄漏后果指數(shù) .............................................. 37 輸油管線相對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) .............................................. 38 輸油管線相對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可接受性評(píng)估 .................................. 38 輸油管線相對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可接受標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的含義 .......................... 38 ALARP 區(qū)域的確定 ........................................... 39 第 5 章 輸油管道泄漏擴(kuò)散災(zāi)害評(píng)估體系及系統(tǒng)的開(kāi)發(fā) ..................... 41 概述 .......................................................... 41 輸油管道泄漏擴(kuò)散災(zāi)害評(píng)估理論體系 .............................. 41 引言 ...................................................... 41 泄漏規(guī)律分析 .............................................. 41 擴(kuò)散規(guī)律分析 .............................................. 49 災(zāi)害評(píng)估 .................................................. 63 輸油管道泄漏災(zāi)害評(píng)估系統(tǒng)開(kāi)發(fā) .................................. 67 引言 ...................................................... 67 軟件的開(kāi)發(fā)環(huán)境及工具 ...................................... 67 系統(tǒng)模塊化結(jié)構(gòu) ............................................ 67 主要操作界面介紹 .......................................... 70 第 6 章 馬廣長(zhǎng)輸原油管線風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及災(zāi)害評(píng)價(jià) ............................... 73 概述 .......................................................... 73 管線分段 ...................................................... 73 評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果分析 ........................