【正文】 …………………………………………………………………III英文摘要 ……………………………………………………………………III第一章引言 ……………………………………………………………………1 中國入境旅游發(fā)展分析預(yù)測的研究意義…………………………………1 中國入境旅游發(fā)展分析預(yù)測的研究意義………………………………1 旅游發(fā)展分析預(yù)測的研究現(xiàn)狀…………………………………………2 本文的工作…………………………………………………………………3 內(nèi)容組織……………………………………………………………………3第二章旅游需求預(yù)測的方法……………………………………………………5 旅游需求預(yù)測方法簡介……………………………………………………5 旅游需求預(yù)測方法………………………………………………………5 旅游需求預(yù)測方法比較…………………………………………………5 旅游需求預(yù)測方法評價……………………………………………………5第三章求和自回歸移動平均（ARIMA）模型……………………………………7 預(yù)測方法與預(yù)測模型…………………………………………………………7 ARIMA模型的概念……………………………………………………………7 ARIMA模型的建模思想………………………………………………………8 根據(jù)時間序列的散點圖……………………………………………………8 數(shù)據(jù)進行平穩(wěn)化處理………………………………………………………8 根據(jù)時間序列模型的識別規(guī)則，建立相應(yīng)的模型………………………8 ARIMA模型表達式……………………………………………………………8 利用ARIMA模型對時間序列進行分析………………………………………9 模型識別……………………………………………………………………9 參數(shù)估計……………………………………………………………………9 診斷檢驗……………………………………………………………………10 合理預(yù)測……………………………………………………………………11第四章 對我國入境旅游人數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)建?！?2 模型的識別……………………………………………………………………12 數(shù)據(jù)進行平穩(wěn)化處理………………………………………………………12 識別模型……………………………………………………………………14 模型的估計與診斷……………………………………………………………19 模型預(yù)測………………………………………………………………………21第五章 結(jié)論………………………………………………………………………22 測試與結(jié)果……………………………………………………………………22 結(jié)論……………………………………………………………………………22……………………………………………………………23附錄…………………………………………………………………………………25參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………27致謝…………………………………………………………………………………28ContentsChinese Abstract………………………………………………………VEnglish Abstract………………………………………………………VChapter One Introduction…………………………………………1 Significance of Study on Analysis and Prediction of Chinese Arrival Tourism Development……………………………………………. 1 Significance of Study on Analysis and Prediction of Chinese Arrival Tourism Development………………………………….1 Present Study of Analysis and Prediction of Tourism Development…………………………………………………… 2 Tasks……………………………………………………………… 3 Organization………………………………………………………..3Chapter Two Methods for Prediction of Traveling Demand………5 Brief Introduction of Predictive Methods for Traveling Demand..….5 Predictive Methods for Traveling Demand……………………… 5 Comparison of Predictive Methods for Traveling Demand……….5 Evaluation of Predictive Methods for Traveling Demand……………5Chapter Three ARIMA Model…………………………………….…7 Predictive Methods and Predictive Model…………………………..7. Concept of ARIMA Model………………………………………….7 Theory of Building ARIMA Model………………………………..8 Scatter Diagram Based on Time Series……………………… …8 Steady Processing of Data……………………………………….8 Building Models Based on Identifying Rule……………………8 Expression of ARIMA Model……………………………………..8 Analysis of Time Series Using ARIMA Model……………………9 Model Identification……………………………………………..9 Parameter Estimation…………………………………………….9 Diagnostic Test……………………………………………........10 Rational Prediction……………………………………………...11Chapter Four Building Model for Data of Chinese Arrival Tourists………………………………………………………………..12 Identification of Model……………………………………………..12 Steady Processing of Data……………………………………..…12 Identifying Model………………………………………………...14 Estimation and Diagnosis of Model…………………………….….19 Prediction of Model…………………………………………………21Chapter Five Conclusion ……………………………………………...22 Tests and Results…………………………………………………….22 Conclusion……………………………………………………….…22 Further study……………………………………………………......23Appendix………………………………………………………………..25References………………………………………………………………27Acknowledgements………………………………………………….…28中 文 摘 要入境旅游是中國旅游市場的重要組成部分，在國際旅游中占有很重要的位置，在中國旅游業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)地位的提高和強化方面處于關(guān)鍵地位。隨著我國經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)高速增長和人均收入的提高，我國旅游市場呈迅速擴張態(tài)勢。旅游研究人員、決策者以及從業(yè)人員都意識到對旅游需求進行準確的預(yù)測是非常必要的，但具體用什么數(shù)學模型來進行旅游需求的預(yù)測分析至今沒有一個統(tǒng)一的范式。關(guān)鍵詞: 入境旅游人數(shù)；時間序列；ARIMA模型；預(yù)測The analysis for Chinese Arrival tourism development based on ARIMA modelABSTRACTThe Arrival tourism is important constitution in the Chinese traveling market, which holds the very important position in the international traveling, is at the essential position in the Chinese tourism industry status enhancement and the strengthened aspect. Simultaneously it also is our country earns the foreign exchange and the solution employment main way. The correct understanding prompt assurance enters a country the traveling market tendency and the trend, discusses our country to enter a country the traveling situation and its in the international tourism39。 第一章引言 中國入境旅游發(fā)展分析預(yù)測的研究意義 中國入境旅游發(fā)展分析預(yù)測的研究意義隨著社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展和人民生活水平的提高，人們在滿足了自身物質(zhì)需求以后，開始追求更高層次的需求，即精神文化需求，旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)由此應(yīng)運而生。同時它也是我國賺取外匯和解決就業(yè)的主要途徑。對外開放是入境旅游的前提，只有對外開放才有入境旅游，而且對外開放的層次和程度決定著入境旅游的范圍和規(guī)模。旅游外匯收入達257億元美元，預(yù)計超過德國和