【正文】 n39。Again, the range in fiscal costs is large. Estimates of the resolution costs of Argentina39。 Countries such as Chile and Thailand in the early 1980s suffered severe output losses, amounting to over 25% of GDP over39。199195 and, by 1997, there were seven new and 29 continuing episodes. Banking crises are monplace regardless of development status, but they occur with somewhat greater frequency in developing or emerging market economies than in industrialized economies. 不管一國的經濟發(fā)展狀況如何，都有銀行業(yè)危機的發(fā)生的可能，但是在一些發(fā)展中國家或者一些新興市場就可能頻繁的發(fā)生。 Economic Letter discusses the mon features associated with banking crises and whether distress signals may be identified before serious problems arise. An episode of banking distress may be associated with depositor runs on banks, the 一個銀行業(yè)的危機的產生可能涉及到儲戶在銀行的運作，關閉或者合并金融機構,或大規(guī)模地延長政府補助。warning system of impending banking sector distress. If policymakers could identify 如果政策的制定者能一個考慮到更多導致銀行危機因素的預警系統，那么銀行業(yè)才有可能采取措施，來避免一些風險。Persistent link to this record (Permalink):atabase: EARLY WARNING INDICATORS OF BANKING SECTOR DISTRESS 銀行業(yè)風險預警指標Contents1. 頻繁的銀行業(yè)危機2. 為什么銀行業(yè)更易受到攻擊？3. 早期預警指標4. 制度特色5. 避免銀行危機6. 參考文獻The financial crises in Japan and East Asia have been costly。Source:Document Type:Subject Terms:Abstract:Discusses the mon features associated with banking crises and whether distress signals may be identified before serious problems arise. Link between episode of banking distress and depositor runs on banks or closure or merger of financial institutions。 they disrupted credit金融危機在日本和東亞頻繁。 the factors that lead to a higher likelihood of banking problems, they might be able to take steps to avert them. Of course, each banking crisis usually has idiosyncratic 當然，每個銀行的危機都有自己的特點。closure or merger of financial institutions, or the extension of largescale government assistance. Typical characteristics of a financial system under stress include a 不良資產和有限的基礎資本的重要投資組合會壓迫金融系統的典型特征。Banking crises generally impose significant costs on the economy. One cost is the loss of output.銀行業(yè)危機通常會帶來重大經濟成本，造成很大一筆損失費流出。 several years. Recent experience indicates that the ultimate costs of the East Asia financial crises also will likely be very large. Another cost is the fiscal cost associated with government efforts to solve the problems in the financial system. 而政府努力解決金融體系出現的問題，又關系到了另一種費用的支出即財政費用。s and Chile39。s GDP. 在1998年，日本政府將國內生產總值的12%作為財政支出，來支撐銀行存款保險基金和整合資金，以解決七年來的銀行業(yè)危機。 Adverse macroeconomic shocks, such as a fall in asset prices (leading to a fall in bank capital or the collateral underlying loans) or economic activity (leading to more delinquent loans), may push an already vulnerable banking sector into a crisis situation.不良的宏觀經濟波動,例如:資產價格下降(導致貸款抵押品)或經濟活動(帶來更拖欠貸款),可能推動一個已經很脆弱的銀行業(yè)陷入危機情況。此外，在會計信息披露和法律框架存在缺陷，它們允許金融機構在一定程度上來掩飾自己的壓力。 Important information may be gleaned from an environment that may have appeared ripe for the onset of banking sector distress but avoided it. In this way, a control group of countries that did not experience banking distress helps isolate those indicators that actually may predict banking problems 重要的信息可能是來源于一種環(huán)境，從銀行業(yè)危機的開始出現到成熟，但是危機可以避免的。On the macroeconomic side, a large number of variables were