【正文】 eater frequency in developing or emerging market economies than in industrialized economies. 不管一國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r如何，都有銀行業(yè)危機(jī)的發(fā)生的可能，但是在一些發(fā)展中國家或者一些新興市場就可能頻繁的發(fā)生。 The literature emphasizes that institutional features of economies, such as the existence of deposit insurance and a marketdetermined interest rate structure, affect the profitability of banks and the incentives of bank managers to take on risk in lending operations.文獻(xiàn)強(qiáng)調(diào)，經(jīng)濟(jì)體制的特點(diǎn)，如存款保險(xiǎn)和市場決定的利率結(jié)構(gòu)的存在，影響了銀行的盈利能力和銀行管理者承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)貸款業(yè)務(wù)的態(tài)度。Hutchison and McDill, however, find that only two of the macro variables are systematically correlated with the onset of banking sector distress: declines in real output and declines in asset values (reflected by equity values). This is not surprising. The likelihood of a serious banking problem would be expected to rise when recessions occur (associated with more bankruptcies and problem loans) and when asset prices fall (indicating a decline in collateral values, which is frequently associated with a depressed real estate sector). 然而，哈奇森和麥克迪爾發(fā)現(xiàn)其中的兩個(gè)變量與銀行業(yè)陷入危機(jī)存在緊密的聯(lián)系在實(shí)際產(chǎn)出下降和資產(chǎn)價(jià)值下降（由股票價(jià)值反映出來）。有證據(jù)表明，這是一個(gè)在向管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)部門，金融監(jiān)管特別是陷入危機(jī)的銀行發(fā)送一個(gè)明確的警告信號。銀行問題提供了一個(gè)推動(dòng)的美國和其他地方的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的改革。 In this context, the most important institutional feature was a period of financial liberalizationa period of financial liberalization frequently is associated with, and often precedes, the offset of a serious banking problem.由于這個(gè)原因，最重要的制度特征是金融自由化時(shí)期，一段金融自由化時(shí)期經(jīng)常與一個(gè)嚴(yán)肅的銀行業(yè)問題聯(lián)系在一起。 Specifically, starting with a sample of over 130 countries over the 197597 period, with over 90 banking crises identified, the study examined 97 countries, of which 53 had severe banking problems at some point.具體來說，在1975至1997年期間首先有130多個(gè)國家出現(xiàn)銀行危機(jī)，用 90多個(gè)樣本來確定的銀行危機(jī)，研究的97個(gè)國家中53個(gè)已在某種程度出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的銀行危機(jī)Since several countries had multiple occurrences over the sample period, 65 episodes of banking distress are identified for detailed statistical analysis (using the probit model regression procedure on a panel data set). 由于幾個(gè)國家已多次出現(xiàn)在樣本期內(nèi)，65個(gè)危機(jī)銀行被確定為詳細(xì)的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析（使用面板數(shù)據(jù)集的概率模型回歸過程）。The mitment of additional funds by the Japanese Diet in 1998 to shore up the deposit insurance fund and recapitalize problem banks brings the cumulative fiscal cost to date (after seven years of banking problems) to about 12% of Japan39。 Economic Letter discusses the mon features associated with banking crises and whether distress signals may be identified before serious problems arise. An episode of banking distress may be associated with depositor runs on banks, the 一個(gè)銀行業(yè)的危機(jī)的產(chǎn)生可能涉及到儲戶在銀行的運(yùn)作，關(guān)閉或者合并金融機(jī)構(gòu),或大規(guī)模地延長政府補(bǔ)助。 they disrupted credit金融危機(jī)在日本和東亞頻繁。 several years. Recent experience indicates that the ultimate costs of the East Asia financial crises also will likely be very large. Another cost is the fiscal cost associated with government efforts to solve the problems in the financial system. 而政府努力解決金融體系出現(xiàn)的問題，又關(guān)系到了另一種費(fèi)用的支出即財(cái)政費(fèi)用。此外，在會(huì)計(jì)信息披露和法律框架存在缺陷，它們允許金融機(jī)構(gòu)在一定程度上來掩飾自己的壓力。但是在許多情況下，貶值的貨幣并沒有導(dǎo)致銀行危機(jī)。The forecast probability of a problem rises from 2% in 1990 to 13% in 1992, roughly tracking the emergence of serious banking distress in Japan. (The model with contemporaneous variables predicts a 20% probability of banking distress in 1992.) Though 13% may not seem a high probability, it should be seen in light of the magnitude of the event: the sharp rise warns that something is amiss. 對一