【正文】 Using Turkish stock market price data, an impending financial crisis can be statistically predicted. (JEL E60,F32, F34, F36, F40, G15) Introduction Much work has been done in the area of financial crisis. Johnson et al. [2020] created a vulnerability matrix using sets of criteria including macro indicators. Other theories of crisis include speculative attacks [ Krugman et al. 1979], and selffulfilling hypotheses [Obstfelt,1995]. Other works include fundamentals, the second generations model moral hazard,and selffulfilling expectations models on liquidity. Krugman [1996], Kaminsky [1998], and Kaminsky and Schumukler [1999] referred to these factors as contagions or mon factors affecting all shows that shortterm capital inflow is undertaken in pursuit of quick gains and includes or prises speculation in the exchange rate markets. The result is increasing international debt and the possibility of the halving of national wealth overnight, as happened in Turkey early in 2020. Most analyses are based on flow variables alone and ignore the effects of financial crisis on stock variables such as international indebtedness and wealth. Recent IMF papers by Borensztein [2020] and Lane MilesiFerretti [2020] underline the importance of linking theory with empirical work on real exchange rates and indebtedness. The possibility of unstable longrun equilibria based on our theoretical model is usually ignored in these studies (whereas the possibility is taken as given here). The arguments in this paper are based on a theoretical model that is different from author argues that probability of future volatility is closely related to the percentage of shares under foreign ownership in the domestic stock market and the volatility of stock market prices. This paper is ordered as follows: section two presents a summary of the model. Section three is an investigation into foreign share ownership on the Istanbul Stock Exchange and the forth section is a report on the empirical results. Section five concludes. Theoretical Model The model is based on Gazioglu [2020] and Gazioglu and McCausland [2020。/e)(1+Rf) is any capital gain from holding foreign money in terms of foreign goods (a simple representation can be found in Gazioglu [1996], where external balance is also equal to internal balance): In essence, therefore, the right hand side of the constraint represents domestic ine (factor earmngs, interest from asset holdings, and return on shares) minus consumption (private and investment), reflected by the saving ( wealth accumulation) on the left hand side. It is the bination of the stock market constraint, following Obstfeld and Rogoff [1995] and Net International Debt [Gazioglu and McCausland, 2020。 2020。本文將在宏觀經(jīng)濟模型的基礎上探討在土耳其各項金融危機時的指標。這意味著，股票市場的股價指數(shù)是另一個迫使金融危機發(fā)生的強勁指標。不過，短期逗留的資本意味著資本可能會突然外流導致造成金融危機，國際債務危機的結(jié)果。 在金融危機的地區(qū)人們已經(jīng)做了許多工研究，包括約翰遜等人。克魯格曼[1996]， Kaminsky[1998]，和 Kaminsky 與 Schumukler[1999]被稱為影響到所有國家的共同因素。近期Borensztein （ 2020） 和 Lane MilesiFerretti （ 2020）通過國際貨幣基金組織文件強調(diào)其實際中的匯率和債務相聯(lián)系理論的重要性。第三部分是介紹將伊斯坦布爾證券交易所外資股所有權(quán)占得比例。 Ramsey， 1928）。/e)(1+Rf)，就是任何從持有外國短期貨幣的資本增益（被 Gazioglu 1996 發(fā)現(xiàn)的一個具有代表性的簡單案例），外部的平衡都要通過國內(nèi)的平衡來解決?，F(xiàn)在看來，國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟對的外國投資在股市上的水平是非常敏感的。其他新興金融市場相似的同樣因此而脆弱，同樣得，在國內(nèi)市場的所有權(quán)外國的持股比例。Gaziogln 和麥考斯蘭（ 2020； 2020； 2020）表明，在外國擁有高比例的股票所有權(quán)在資本流入和流出時對匯率和國際債務的