【正文】 基于 FAHP 的建設(shè)工程項目投資估算 影響要素 甄別及重要性評價研究 摘要 投資估算是形成工程造價的源頭，合理確定投資估算又是工程造價控制的基礎(chǔ)和載體。隨著國內(nèi)建筑市場的發(fā)展，投資估算的準確與否越來越受到業(yè)界的關(guān)注。但由于長期以來我國投資估算的研究尚處于起步階段，投資估算的理論仍未形成完整體系，投資估算精度研究已成為造價工作一個十分迫切的課題?；谝陨鲜聦?，本文將對建設(shè)項目投資估算進行深入分析，通過探討投資估算產(chǎn)生的影響因素，合理運用 模糊理論構(gòu)建 數(shù)學(xué)模型 進行 更精確投資估算。 首先，本文根據(jù)近幾年的 數(shù)據(jù)和實際案例提出了投資估算中超投現(xiàn)象，通過對建設(shè)項目決策階段的投資估算內(nèi)容上的研究分析并由此得出影響投資估算準確性的關(guān)鍵原因是不確定影響因素的存在 ，為解決該問題提供了理論上的支撐 。其次，通過分析以往學(xué)者的研究、投資估算的范圍規(guī)定以及實際判例來綜合界定給出影響投資估算的五大關(guān)鍵因素。其內(nèi)容包括： 建設(shè)單位的項目投資決策與管理、建設(shè)項目的工程 方案設(shè)計 、政府對項目建設(shè)的管理 調(diào)控 、外界一般因素對投資估算的風(fēng)險以及建設(shè)項目投資估算編制。 并在此基礎(chǔ)上，通過進一步的分析歸納，界定了各類關(guān)鍵影響因素的二級影響因素。這為投資 估算準確性的界定 給出了科學(xué)的判定標準 。最后，通過總結(jié)以往學(xué)者對該問題的處理建議，運用模糊綜合評價法來解決該問題應(yīng)為首選。把影響因素從模糊的定性轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榫_的定量，做到以量化值。運用該方法解決問題，這將對投資估算的準確性起來關(guān)鍵作用。 綜合以上研究，本文在模糊理論的條件下，對建設(shè)項目投資估算的影響因素分析給出了理論上的支撐與實際操作層面上的建議。這必將為該問題的順利解決奠定基礎(chǔ)。 關(guān)鍵 詞 ： 工程造價 投資估算 影響 因素 模糊綜合評價模型 Study on the Effect of Evaluation Factor Screening and the Importance of Investment Estimation of Construction Project Based on FAHP ABSTRACT Investment project cost estimate is the source of the formation of a reasonable estimate is the basis for determining an investment project cost control and the carrier. Only reasonable assurance of project cost, good through effective means to control the various stages of construction costs in order to achieve the desired purpose, to ensure timely pletion of the construction project shelf. It can be seen that the investment project cost estimates in the control39。s role can not be the development of the domestic construction market, investment estimates more accurate or not by the industry39。s attention. But because of the cost of the work is a long time in the planned economy characterized by a fixed pattern of conduct, research investment estimates China is still in its infancy, the theory has not yet formed a plete investment estimation system, investment estimation accuracy of research has bee cost of work a very urgent task. Based on the above facts, the paper will be the construction project investment is estimated indepth analysis, investment estimation by exploring factors arising, rational use of mathematical models to invest more accurate estimate。Firstly, according to the data and the actual cases in recent years, investment estimates presented voted Super phenomenon, through the study of the construction phase of the project investment decision analysis to estimate the content and thus draw on the impact of the key reasons for investment estimation accuracy is uncertain influence factors exist for solving this problem provides a theoretical support。Secondly, through analysis of previous scholars, investment estimate and the actual scope of the provisions of the jurisprudence of the five key factors to give a prehensive definition of the estimated impact of the investment. Its contents include: project investment decisionmaking and management, engineering construction unit construction project program design, government regulation and control of project construction, outside the general risk factors on investment and construction projects estimated investment estimate preparation. And on this basis, further analysis summarized by defining the various types of two key factors influencing gives the scientific criteria for the definition of investment estimation accuracy。Finally, a summary of past scholars on the issue of treatment remendations, the use of fuzzy prehensive evaluation method to solve this problem should be preferred. The impact of the transition from fuzzy qualitative factors as precise quantitative, so in order to quantify the value. Using this method to solve the problem, which will invest up to estimate the accuracy of the key role. Based on the above research, the paper under the conditions of the fuzzy theory, factors affecting construction project investment estimate of theoretical analysis gives advice and practical support level. This will surely lay the foundation for successful problem solving. Key Words： The project cost。 Investment estimation。 Factors。 fuzzy Comprehensive evaluation model 目 錄 第一章 緒論 ............................................................................................................................1 研究背景與意義 ......................................................................................................1 研究背景 ..........................................................................................................1 研究意義 ..........................................................................................................2 問題的提出 ......................................................................................................2 國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 ......................................................................................................3 國外研究現(xiàn)狀 ...................................................................................................3 國內(nèi)研究現(xiàn)狀 ...................................................................................................5 投資估算現(xiàn)狀與發(fā)展 ..............................................................................................6 投資估算的重要性 ...........................................................................................6 投資估算的作用 ...............................................................................................7 研究思路與方法 ......................................................................................................7 本章小結(jié) ..................................................................................................................9 第二章 文獻研究 .................................................................................................................10 建設(shè)項目投資估算的文獻綜述 .................................................................................10 投資估算的方法分析及對比