【ppt精品課件】貨幣金融學(xué)7版英文課件--ch26-大學(xué)課(已修改)
2025-01-11 13:30 本頁面
【正文】 Chapter 26 Transmission Mechanisms of Moary Policy: The Evidence 169。 2023 Pearson Education Canada Inc. Two Types of Empirical Evidence Structural Model Evidence M i I Y Reduced Form Evidence M ? Y Structural Model Evidence Advantages: 1. Understand causation because more information on link between M and Y 2. Knowing how M affects Y helps prediction 3. Can predict effects of institutional changes that change link from M to Y Disadvantages: 1. Structural model may be wrong, negating all advantages 169。 2023 Pearson Education Canada Inc. 2 Reduced Form Evidence Advantages: 1. No restrictions on how M affects Y: better able to find link from M to Y Disadvantages: 1. Reverse causation possible 2. Third factor may produce correlation of M and Y 3 169。 2023 Pearson Education Canada Inc. Early Keynesian Evidence Evidence: 1. Great Depression: i ? on Tbonds to low levels ? moary policy was “easy” 2. No statistical link from i to I 3. Surveys: no link from i to I Objections to Keynesian evidence Problems with structural model 1. i on Tbonds not representative during Depression: i very high on lowgrade bonds: Figure 1 in Ch. 6 2. ir more relevant than i: ir high during Depression: Figure 1 3. Ms ? during Depression (Friedman and Schwartz): money “tight” 4. Wrong structural model to look at link of i and I, should look at ir and I: evidence in 1 and 2 suspect 169。 2023 Pearson Education Canada Inc. 4 Real and Nominal Interest Rates 5 169。 2023 Pearson Education Canada Inc. Early Moarist Evidence Moarist evidence is reduced form Timing Evidence (Friedman and Schwartz) 1. Peak in Ms growth 16 months before peak in Y on average 2. Lag is variable Criticisms: 1. Uses principle: Post hoc, ergo propter hoc 2. Principle only valid if first event is exogenous: ., if have controlled experiment 3. Hypothetical example (Fig 2): Reverse causation from Y to M and yet Ms growth leads Y 6 169。 2023 Pearson Education Canada Inc. Hypothetical Example in Which ?M/M leads Y 7 169。 2023 Pearson Education Canada Inc. Statistical Evidence Horse race: correlatio
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