【正文】 華中科技大學(xué)本科畢業(yè)論文房地產(chǎn)投資項目風(fēng)險分析 學(xué) 號 C201242547 專 業(yè) 工程管理 姓 名 周曉宏 日 期 2014年5月15日+ Huazhong university of science and technology undergraduate graduation thesis.Real estate investment project risk analysis. Student number C201242547 Profession Engineering management Name Zhou xiao hong Date May 15th,2014 摘要 房地產(chǎn)投資是我國經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)的一項重要內(nèi)容，而其投資又具較大的風(fēng)險，有效識別、估計、分析風(fēng)險，降低風(fēng)險損失，提高房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險管理效率，已成為當(dāng)前房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險管理的重要任務(wù)。所以必須對房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行識別和分析，才能有效地防范這些風(fēng)險。作為一種特殊的投資項目，房地產(chǎn)因投資周期長、投資量大、投資的物體具有不可移動性、投資易受政策的影響等特點，很有可能形成投資的周期性、重疊性、累積性風(fēng)險。歷史上持續(xù)的過熱投資導(dǎo)致的巨大泡沫危機(jī)多次出現(xiàn)，在給房地產(chǎn)投資者帶來巨大的風(fēng)險損失的同時，也重創(chuàng)了區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)乃至國民經(jīng)濟(jì)。2002以來，我國房地產(chǎn)投資持續(xù)高漲，引發(fā)了大量業(yè)內(nèi)人士對其過熱的甚至泡沫化的憂慮，部分學(xué)者討論了當(dāng)下的房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險態(tài)勢、特征與原因，各具見識、各有側(cè)重，本文力圖在這樣的認(rèn)識基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)一步辨析、綜合與發(fā)展，以更全面，更理性地認(rèn)識我國房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險的內(nèi)容與傾向，并構(gòu)造測度評價指標(biāo)體系，為房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險防范提供借鑒。 首先，對房地產(chǎn)的開發(fā)決策、開發(fā)前期、項目建設(shè)、租售管理四個階段存在的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了識別；其次，在風(fēng)險識別的基礎(chǔ)上，選擇合理的指標(biāo)，建立房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險預(yù)警體系，并對本市房地產(chǎn)市場情況進(jìn)行實證預(yù)警；再者，在對以往的評價方法如專家評價法、盈虧平衡分析法、敏感性分析法、蒙特卡洛法、模糊綜合評價分析法等進(jìn)行分析說明的基礎(chǔ)上，引進(jìn)基于Matlab軟件的人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型建立了新的風(fēng)險評價體系；最后，從風(fēng)險防范和風(fēng)險控制兩方面提出相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險控制對策，以增強(qiáng)企業(yè)防范及化解風(fēng)險的能力，降低風(fēng)險損失，提高企業(yè)的市場競爭力。關(guān)鍵詞：房地產(chǎn)投資；投資風(fēng)險；風(fēng)險識別。風(fēng)險評價；風(fēng)險控制 Abstract With the constant expansion of the sustained and healthy development cf economic construction ,China’real estate market system is moving into the specification stage ,the real estate industry has entered a virtuous cycle of petition in the market,has developed Into an independent industry,and gradually bee a national one of the pillar industries Of the ,due to the imperfections of the real estate market mechanisms,as Well as all the errors exist in the real estate investment research,coupled with the real estate itself is a high investment,high return,high risk industry,how to more accurateRisk identification and evaluation of these ricks is the urgent need to address the problem Faced by the real estate ,the current real estate investment risk has important practical significance. As a special investment projects，there are many features for real estate such as long life cycle，large quantity,immobile and vulnerable to the impact of policies，So which likelyto form the cyclical，overlapping，cumulative risk．Sustained and overheated realestate investment led to the huge bubble crisis in the past，which has brought enormous risks loss to the real estate investors，and hurt regional economy even national economy．Since 2002 the real estate investment of our country has kept in rising，which led a large number of people both inside and outside to worry if the investment overheated even bubble burst．Some scholars discussed the situation，features and reasons of present real estate risk，which have their own vision and focus．In the basis of these cognition，this text try to make further analyze，consolidation and development，in order to leam the content and orientation of real estate investment risks more prehensively and rationally．And established risk evaluation system to offer some advice in the aspect of real estate risk prevention and contr01． Firstly,author identified the risk which exist in the four processes which include decision—making，the early stage of development，the project construction and Rental management．Secondly,based on identifying main risks from four processes of real estate investment，author chose some appropriate indexes to design risk forecast system and forecasted the Empirical real estate market condition of this city．Moreover,based on the analysis of Previous evaluation method such as expert evaluation， BreakEven Analysis，Sensitivity Analysis，Monto carlo and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method，author used artificial neural network model to establish a new risk evaluation system ．At last，on all above，author advocated according measures to control risk from the aspect of risk prevention and risk reduction，in order to enforce the enterprises’ability of avoiding and resolving risk，to decline risk cost，and to enhance enterprises’petition．Keywords:real estate investment。investment risk。risk identification；Rick evaluation。rick control 目錄 第1章 緒論......................................................1 我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)..............................................1 房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險分析的概況............................................2 房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險分析的必要性..........................................3第2章 房地產(chǎn)投資項目基本理論概述.....................................4 ...................................................4 ......................................................4 .......................................................4 .....................................................5 第3章 房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險...................................................7 ...................................................7 ................................................7 .......................................................7 .......................................8 ..............................................8第4章 房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險管理分析.........................................10 ...............................................10 ...................................................10 ..........................................12 ...............