【正文】 2022/1/4 1 當(dāng)前國際金融危機(jī)的實(shí)質(zhì) 及其理論根源 汪祖杰 教授 南京審計(jì)學(xué)院 金融學(xué)院 院長 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士 2022/1/4 2 講題： ?一、現(xiàn)實(shí)與解釋 ?二、當(dāng)前金融危機(jī)的實(shí)質(zhì) ?三、當(dāng)前金融危機(jī)理論根源 ?四、結(jié)論、對策與制度變革 2022/1/4 3 ? 一、現(xiàn)實(shí)與解釋 ? （一）金融危機(jī)的定義與影響 2022/1/4 4 ? （ 1）金融危機(jī)的定義 ?——比較權(quán)威的定義是由戈德斯密斯（ 1982）給出的 ， 是 全部 或大部分 金融指標(biāo) ——短期利率、資產(chǎn)（資產(chǎn)、證券、房地產(chǎn)、土地）價(jià)格、商業(yè)破產(chǎn)數(shù)和金融機(jī)構(gòu)倒閉數(shù) ——的急劇、短暫和超周期的 惡化 。 其特征是基于預(yù)期 資產(chǎn)價(jià)格下降 而 大量 拋出不動產(chǎn) 或 長期金融資產(chǎn) ， 換成貨幣 。 2022/1/4 5 ?（ 2）金融危機(jī)的類型： ? 貨幣危機(jī) (Currency Crises) ； ? 銀行危機(jī) (Banking Crises) ； ? 外債危機(jī) (Foreign Debt Crises) ； ?信用危機(jī) (Credit Crises)。 2022/1/4 6 ?（ 3）美國金融危機(jī)和國際金融危機(jī) ?Ⅰ 、美國金融危機(jī)： ?次貸危機(jī)；投資銀行全軍覆沒；信貸市場和股市危機(jī)；實(shí)質(zhì)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。 ?首先，次貸危機(jī)的 3表現(xiàn)： 2022/1/4 7 1）房市的持續(xù)下降 2022/1/4 8 a）查封量劇增 More than 272,000 homes received at least one foreclosurerelated notice in July 2022, up 55% from about 175,000 in July 2022 and up 8 percent from June. 1 in every 464 . households received a foreclosure filing in July 2022. 2022/1/4 9 Foreclosure 2022/1/4 10 b）二手房交易量大幅下降 Nationwide, the median existing single family home price down % to $206,500 from $223,500 in the second quarter of 2022. 2022/1/4 11 c）新房銷售下降 June 2022 – June 2022 2022/1/4 12 d）房價(jià)下降 From June 30, 2022 to June 30, 2022 Sacramento, Calif. % Cape Coral, Fla. % Riverside, Calif. %, Los Angeles, Calif. % Las Vegas, Nev. % Phoenix, AZ % 2022/1/4 13 2）次貸的規(guī)模和壞帳 ? The value of . subprime mortgages was estimated at $ trillion as of March 2022 – How severe is subprime mess? Real estate (2022). ? Over million subprime mortgages outstanding. – FRB: Speech, BernankeThe Subprime Mortgage MarketMay 17, 2022 ? Approximately 16% of subprime loans with adjustable rate mortgages were 90days delinquent or in foreclosure proceedings as of October 2022, roughly triple the rate of 2022. – FRB: SpeechBernanke, The Recent Financial Turmoil and its Economic and Policy ConsequencesOctober 15, 2022 ? By January of 2022, the delinquency rate had risen to 21%. ? FRB: SpeechBernanke, Financial Markets, the Economic Outlook, and Moary Policy January 10, 2022 2022/1/4 14 什么是次級貸款 ? 正級貸款的條件 Credit score above 620 (credit scores are between 350 and 850 with a median in the . of 678 and a mean of 723) No more than 55% of ine pays for housing and other debt Combined loan to value ratio of 90%, with at least10% downpayment. 2022/1/4 15 什么是次級貸款 ? ? Two or more loan payments paid past 30 days due in the last 12 months, or one or more loan payments paid past 90 days due the last 36 months。 ? Judgment, foreclosure, repossession, or nonpayment of a loan in the past。 ? Bankruptcy in the last 7 years。 ? FICO of less than 620 or other bureau or proprietary scores with an equivalent default probability likelihood. 2022/1/4 16 3）房產(chǎn)空置率達(dá)到歷史高位 ? The homeowner vacancy rate, rose to a record % in the first quarter from % in the fourth quarter, about 1% higher than normal, according to new Census Bureau data. ? From 1995 until the fourth quarter of 2022, the rate held between % and 2%. ? About million vacant homes were for sale in the first quarter, about one million more than was typical before the housing bubble burst. ? WSJ April 29, 2022 2022/1/4 17 Record Vacancies ? A record million vacant homes are for rent, with the rental vacancy rate rising to % in the first quarter. ? WSJ April 29, 2022 2022/1/4 18 Historical Background GDP 2101234567899II 00I 00IV 01III 02II 03I 03IV 04III 05II 06I 06IV 07III S e r i e s1S e r i e s2Bureau of Economic Analysis 2022/1/4 19 Federal Reserve Response Aggressive Interest Rate Cut % May 16, 2022 to 1% June 25, 2022 2022/1/4 20 其次，次貸形成的過程 ??? 信用不好者為何不自量力大量買房 ? 私有金融機(jī)構(gòu)為何愿意貸款 ? 巨額貸款的資金來源 ? 2022/1/4 21 1）從泡沫到泡沫 網(wǎng)絡(luò) 房產(chǎn) 信心的破滅和膨脹 2022/1/4 22 歷史背景 Historical Background NASDAQ Bubble Burst 2022/1/4 23 歷史背景 Historical Background Dow Jones Crash 2022/1/4 24 GDP 1999 – 2022 (2季度 ) 2101234567899II 00I 00IV 01III 02II 03I 03IV 04III 05II 06I 06IV 07III S e r i e s1S e r i e s2Bureau of Economic Analysis 2022/1/4 25 2）美聯(lián)儲連續(xù)大幅降息 Aggressive Interest Rate Cut % May 16, 2022 to 1% June 25, 2022 2022/1/4 26 3）大量資金從股市轉(zhuǎn)向房市 房價(jià)持續(xù)上升 ,新的泡沫逐步形成 2022/1/4 27 4）房價(jià)飆升 Increase by over 80% Standard amp。 Poor39。s/Case Shiller home price index April 29, 2022 2022