【正文】 service ?Cable telephony will bee increasingly more of a threat in the next couple of years as the DOCSIS standard for VoIP bees implemented ? HFC cable maintains a petitive advantage over DSL in terms of bandwidth capacity which allows for additional service offerings including videoondemand and videoconferencing ? Cable providers will offer broad and attractively priced bundles to encourage consumers to switch to cable telephony Cable Triple Play Threat Evidence Analysis 2023/3/22 Document Title 8 169。 Copyright IBM Corporation, 2023 Cable offerings will continue to emerge as the digital cable footprint reaches nearly 90% of passed cable homes by 2023 Cable panies have already updated a large majority of their works and are projected to sell ancillary services at a steep rate of peration Competitive Threats Cable Wireless Sub. Portals Source: Deutsche Bank equity research 9/06/01. 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1998 1999 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023D i g i t a l V i d e o R e a d yH o m e s a s a % o f C a b l eH o m e sC a b l e M o d e m R e a d yH o m e s a s a % o f C a b l eH o m e sC a b l e T e l e p h o n y R e a d yH o m e s a s a % o f C a b l eH o m e s. Digital Footprint 1998 2023 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%1998 1999 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023D i g i t a l V i d e o Su b s a s a% o f D i g i t a l V i d e o R e a d yH o m e sC a b l e M o d e m Su b s a s a% o f C a b l e M o d e mR e a d y H o m e sC a b l e T e l e p h o n y Su b sa s a % o f C a b l eT e l e p h o n y R e a d yH o m e s. Digital Service Take Rate 1998 2023 As of 2Q:01, million homes were cable telephone ready with million subscribers Evidence Analysis 2023/3/22 Document Title 9 169。 Copyright IBM Corporation, 2023 Even though DSL and Cable Modems have similar take rates, Cable modems will dominate due to it larger addressable market 0510152025303540451999 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023O p t i c a lS a t e lli t e / W i r e le s sD S LC a b leHighspeed Data Subscribers2 1999 2023 Due to the fact that DSL access is limited to those customers who reside close to a DSLAM, the cable modem addressable market will exceed the DSL addressable market by 30 million homes by 2023 Competitive Threats Cable Wireless Sub. Portals 58% 37% 39% 55% 54% 38% 36% 53% 53% 35% 1. MSDW equity research 6/29/01 and 2. Deutsche Bank equity research 9/06/01 2. CIBC World Markets, Equity Research. 3. SalomonSmithBarney equity research 8/20/0 and Deutche Bank equity research 9/06/01 (includes residential an mercial DSL subscribers) Broadband Subscribers (millions) DSL vs Cable Modem Take Rate1 1999 2023 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%1999 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023C a b l e M o d e m Su b s a s a% o f C a b l e M o d e mR e a d y H o m e sD SL Su b s a s a % D SLR e a d y H o m e sAs of 2Q:01, XYZ had 360K DSL subs out of DSL ready homes (%)3 Evidence Analysis 2023/3/22 Document Title 10 169。 Copyright IBM Corporation, 2023 Cable providers have the opportunity to layer on new service offerings with only marginal incremental capital expense $0$200$400$600$800$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600U p g ra d e t oD i g i t a l C a b l eD i g i t a l V i d e o H SD V O D C a b l eT e l e p h o n yT o t a lIncremental CapEx per Subscriber for Additional Service Offerings1 Cable providers have the opportunity to update their cable lines at $1,422 per subscriber to increase the average monthly subscriber revenue by $124 to $194 per month Competitive Threats Cable Wireless Sub. Portals 1. Assumes capital expenditures over a 6 year period discounted at 13% and switchbased cable telephony. 2. Assumes no discount on bundled services, modest take rates and switchbased cable telephony. 3. Source: Bear Stearns equity research 5/01, ABN Amro equity research 6/0, Deutsche Bank equity research 9/06/01 and IBM analysis. Incremental Capex per Subscriber $0$25$50$75$100$125$150$175$200S t a n d a r e dC a b l eP r e m i u mC h a n n e l sD i g i t a lV i d e oH S D V O D C a b l eT e l e p h o n yT o t a lRevenue per Subscriber per Month for All Service Offerings2 Revenue per Subscriber per Month $194 $1,422 Incremental Revenue Evidence Analysis 2023/3/22 Document Title 11 169。 Copyright IBM Corporation, 2023 Attractive EBITDA margins allow cable providers to quickly reach breakeven on new service offerings $0$10$20$30$40$50$60D i g i t a l V i d e o H SD V O D C a b l e T e l e p h o n yIncremental EBITDA per Subscriber per Month For Additional Service Offerings1 Assuming a 15% take rate, cable providers can recoup their investment in switchbased telephony in 34 months Competitive Threats Cable Wireless Sub. Portals 1. Assumes a 35% revenue share with ISP for HSD and switchbased cable telephony. 2. Assumes modest take rates and switchbased cable telephony. 3. Source: Bear Stearns equity research 5/01, ABN Amro equity research 6/0, Deutsche Bank equity research 9/06/01 and IBM analysis. Incremental EBITDA per Subscriber per Month 05101520253035D i g i t a l V i d e o H S D V O D C a b l e T e l e p h o n yPayback Period for Additional Service Offerings2 Months 34 EBITDA Margin 57% 29% 45% 45% 14 26 5 Evidence Analysis 2023/3/22 Document Title 12 169。 Copyright IBM Corporation, 2023 Strategic Implications of Our Work Are… ? To achieve positive EBITDA and cash flow XYZ ?