北大光華組織與管理week9-決策-文庫吧
2025-02-08 14:15 本頁面
【正文】 earch:25decisionprocessesDecisionsequenceStimulus:opportunity,problem,crisisSolutions:given(readymade),customizedIdentification:recognition,diagnosisDevelopment:search,screen,designSelection:judgmentevaluationchoice,analysisevaluation,bargainingevaluationchoiceAuthorizationContinuedDynamicfactors:interrupts:suddeneventscausechangeinpaceordirectionschedulingdelaysfeedbackdelaystimingdelaysandspeedupsprehensivecyclesfailurerecyclescontinuedModelsofstrategicdecisionprocesssimpleimpassedecisionprocessespoliticaldesigndecisionprocessbasicsearchdecisionprocessesmodifiedsearchdecisionprocessesbasicdesigndecisionprocessesblockeddesigndecisionprocessesdynamicdesigndecisionprocessesTheManagerAsDecisionMakerRationalDecisionMaking– decisionsareconsistent,valuemaximizingchoiceswithinspecifiedconstraints– managersassumedtomakerationaldecisions– Assumptions of Rationalitydecisionmakerwould:–beobjectiveandlogical–carefullydefineaproblem–haveaclearandspecificgoal–selectthealternativethatmaximizesthelikelihoodofachievingthegoal–makedecisioninthefirm’sbesteconomicinterests? managerialdecisionmakingseldommeetsallthetests169。 Jianjun ZhangAssumptionsOfRationalityRationalDecisionMakingProblem isclear andunambiguousSingle, welldefined goalis to be achievedAll alternativesand consequencesare knownPreferencesare clearPreferencesare constantand stableNo time or costconstraints existFinal choicewill maximizepayoff169。Jianjun Zhang有限理性環(huán)境復(fù)雜，模糊、不一致信息；不完備、不對稱信息人們解釋不同 (經(jīng)歷經(jīng)驗、身份角色、利益，等）私有利益（組織作為政治聯(lián)合體）時間壓力注意力分配169。 Jianjun ZhangTheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)TypesofProblemsandDecisions– WellStructured Problemsstraightforward,familiar,andeasilydefined– Programmed Decisionsusedtoaddressstructuredproblems–minimizetheneedformanagerstousediscretion–facilitateanizationalefficiency? procedureseriesofinterrelatedsequentialstepsusedtorespondtoastructuredproblem? ruleexplicitstatementofwhattodoornottodo? policyguidelinesorparametersfordecisionmaking169。Jianjun Zhang169。 Jianjun ZhangTheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)TypesofProblemsandDecisions(cont.)– PoorlyStructured Problemsnew,unusualproblemsforwhichinformationisambiguousorinplete– Nonprogrammed Decisionsusedtoaddresspoorlystructuredproblems? produceacustommaderesponse? morefrequentamonghigherlevelmanagers– fewdecisionsintherealworldareeitherfullyprogrammedornonprogrammed169。Jianjun Zhang169。 Jianjun ZhangProgrammedversusnonprogrammeddecisionVariable Type of Decision Programmed NonprogrammedTypeoftask Simple,routineComplex,creativeRelianceonanizationalpoliciesConsiderableguidancefrompastdecisionsNoguidancefrompastdecisionsTypicaldecisionmakerLowerlevelworkersUpperle
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