北大光華組織與管理week9-決策-在線瀏覽
2025-03-22 14:15本頁面
【正文】 lesupportdecision–decisionfailitnotproperly– Step 8 Evaluating Decision Effectiveness? determinetheis Jianjun ZhangDecisionaIncrementalProcessresearch:decisionsequenceStimulus:problem,givencustomizedrecognition,search,designSelection:evaluationchoice,evaluation,evaluationchoiceAuthorizationDynamicsuddencauseinordelaysfeedbackdelaysspeedupsprehensiverecyclescontinuedModelsstrategicprocesssimpledecisiondesignprocessbasicdecisionsearchprocessesbasicdecisiondesignprocessesdynamicdecisionManagerDecisionDecisionarevaluemaximizingwithinconstraints– managerstorationalmakerobjectivelogical–carefullyaaandgoal–selectalternativemaximizeslikelihoodachievinggoal–makeinfirm’seconomicdecisionseldomalltests169。OfJianjun Zhang有限理性環(huán)境復(fù)雜，模糊、不一致信息；不完備、不對稱信息人們解釋不同 (經(jīng)歷經(jīng)驗、身份角色、利益，等）私有利益（組織作為政治聯(lián)合體）時間壓力注意力分配169。ManagerAMakerofandfamiliar,easilytostructuredthefortodiscretion–facilitateefficiency? procedureseriesinterrelatedstepstotostructuredstatementwhatdonotdo? policyguidelinesparametersdecisionJianjun Zhang169。ManagerAMakerofand(cont.)– PoorlyStructured Problemsnew,problemswhichisortopoorlyproblems? producecustommadefrequenthigherleveldecisionstheworldeitherprogrammednonprogrammedJianjun Zhang169。versusdecisionVariable Type of DecisionofroutineComplex,onpoliciesConsiderablefromdecisionsNofromdecisionsTypicalmakerLowerlevelsupervisors169。OfTypesDecisions,LevelTheinOrganizationTopLowerWellstructuredIllstructuredTypeJianjun Zhang169。ManagerAMakerConditions– Certaintyouteeveryisratherrealistic– Riskableestimateprobabilityoutesfromalternative? expected valuethereturneachoute–multiplyrevenueeachbyprobabilityeachJianjun Zhang169。ValueRevenuestheofSki Jianjun ZhangTheAsDecision(cont.)DecisionMaking(cont.)– Uncertaintynotaboutandtoprobabilities? psychologicalofmaker–maximaxmaximizingmaximumpayoff（大中取大）–maximin187。thepossiblethe“regret”（大中取?。?69。 Jianjun ZhangPayoffJianjun Zhang169。Matrix169。 Jianjun ZhangTheAsMakerRationality–behavewithinparametersadecisionmakingthatlimitedanabilityprocesssolutionsareenough”–escalation of mitmentincreasedtopreviousdespitethatmaybeentothatinitialmaybeenJianjun Zhang169。oftoaprojectaction Negativetotopersist NegativetocostPressureOutsidetopersistSource:19761997169。ManagerAMakerStyles– twodefineapproachdecisionfromtofromneedconsistencyorderthetomanysimultaneously– definedecisionmakingefficient,logical? Analyticcarefulableadaptcopenewtocreativeacceptancedecisions169。 Jianjun ZhangDecisionMakingofforJianjun Zhang169。 Jianjun Zhang錨定（定準(zhǔn)，支架）陷阱 人口多少 ？169。四輪馬車第一輛汽車169。 Jianjun Zhang沉沒成本陷阱169。 Jianjun Zhang可靠證據(jù)陷阱169。從哪里 怎么 Jianjun Zhang169。 Jianjun Zhang表述陷阱情境：你公司的三艘貨運船昨天沉船，每艘船上有價值 20萬的貨物，如若不能在72小時內(nèi)打撈，貨物將全部報廢。169。一艘，即挽救你20萬的貨物.方案二 這套方案有三分之一的概率挽救你的三艘總
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