國(guó)際貿(mào)易外文翻譯---中國(guó)和東亞的外商直接投資-國(guó)際貿(mào)易-文庫(kù)吧
2024-12-30 08:25 本頁(yè)面
【正文】 enting the China factor. To proxy for the China Effect, we choose the level of the inflow of China’s foreign direct investment. Obviously Chinese inward foreign direct investment can also be dependent on the inward direct investment of these Asian economies as well as the standard explanatory variables. In order to capture such a reciprocal relationship between the inflow of FDI in China and that in other Asian economies, the FDI equation for both the Asian economies and China are estimated simultaneously. The basic regression model for inward foreign direct investment for Asian countries and for China are written as a linear specification of the following form: ln(AFDIi,t) = α0 + α1ln(CLNFDI,t) + β1ln(AGROWTHi,t) + β2ln(ACORRUPTi,t) + β3ln(ADUTYi,t) + β4ln(AGOVi,t) + β5ln(AWAGEi,t) 2 Other related literature includes Bao, Chang, Sachs and Woo (2021), Fung, Iizaka and Siu (2021), Zhang and Song (2021), etc. ) + βln(ATEL) + βln(AINCOME) + βln(OUTFLOW) +β6ln(AOPENi,t)+β7ln(AILLITi,t) + β8ln(ACPTAXi,t9i,t10i,t11t ln(CLNFDIt) = γ0 + δ1ln(AFDIi,t) + ρ1ln(CGROWTHt) + ρ2ln(CCORUPTt) ρ3ln(CDUTYt) + ρ4ln(CGOVt) + ρ5ln(CWAGEt) + ρ6ln(COPEN t) + ρ7ln(CINCOMEt) where the subscript “i” and “t” stands for country i at period t and the variables used in this analysis are defined below. AFDI i,t : the level of inward foreign direct investment in the ith Asian economies in year t. CLNFDI t : inward foreign direct investment into China in year t. AGROWTH i,t : growth rate of GDP of country i at time t. CGROWTH t : growth rate of GDP of China at time t. ACORRUPT i,t : an index of corruption of county i at time t. CCORRUPT t : an index of corruption of China at time t. ADUTYi,t : import duty of country i at time t. CDUTYt : import duty of China at time t. AWAGE i,t : average wage in manufacturing of country i at time t. CWAGE t : average wage in manufacturing of China at time t. AOPEN i,t : the share of exports and imports in GDP of country i at time t. COPEN t : the share of exports and imports in GDP of China at time t. AILLIT i,t : the percentage of people who are illiterate of country i at time t. 3 In future studies, we intend to include other Asian economies such as India and Pakistan. ATAX i,t : corporate tax rate of country i at time t. AGOV i,t : an index of government stability of country i at time t. CGOV t : an index of government stability of China at time t. ATEL i,t : number of telephone mainlines per 1,000 people of country i at time t. AINCOME i,t : per capita GDP of country i at time t. CINCOME t : per capita GDP of China at time t OUTFLOWt total outflows of direct investment to the world at time t The independent variables examined in the analysis are believed to exert an influence on inward foreign direct investment in each country of Asia and China by changing the investment environment through institutional and policy changes as well as the relevant economic conditions. The main variable that we shall examine in this paper is the proxy for the China effect CLNFDI. There are at least two aspects that we should consider here. First, in examining which lowwage export platform to locate, multinationals may choose between investing in China vs. investing in another Asian country, say Thailand. In this case, the multinationals will study the whole host of factors, including wage rates, political risks, infrastructure, etc. that would make a country desirable as a site for lowcost production. Investing in China will then reduce the FDI in another Asian economy, say Thailand. The sign of CLNFDI, according to this argument is negative. We shall call this the “investmentdiversion effect”. The second aspect is the production and resource linkages between a growing China and the rest of Asia. In manufacturing, this takes of the form of further specialization and growing fragmentation of the production processes. An investor sets up factories in both China and Thailand to take advantage of their respective petitiveness in distinct stages of productions. Components and parts are then traded among China and other Asian economies. An increase in China’s FDI is then positively related to an increase in Thailand’s FDI. A different but plementary argument is that as China grows, its market size increases and its appetite for minerals and resources also rises. Subsequently, foreign firms rush into China to produce in China and to sell in China. At the same time, other multinationals also invest in other parts of Asia to extract minerals and resources to export to fast growing China in need of a whole spectrum of raw materials. This line of reasoning leads one to predict that the sign of CLNFDI t
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