【正文】 0 4 . 7 4 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 7 1 0 . 1 8 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 4 0 3 0 0 0 . 0 3 2 5 . 3 7 0 0 0 . 0 0 2 7 . 7 3 6 8 6 1 6 . 9 8 1 2 1 2 . 4 2 1 4 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 7 1 0 . 0 0 4 2 3 1 5 . 0 3 4 2 6 3 1 . 8 4 6 7 6 6 . 9 5 1 3 0 0 0 . 6 7 1 0 0 0 . 6 4 9 1 1 0 0 0 . 0 3 4 8 . 6 0 9 8 0 0 0 . 0 9 7 6 . 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 . 0 3 2 0 . 8 2 2 2 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 9 0 0 . 0 8 2 1 7 8 1 . 1 9 8 6 3 1 . 8 4 6 8 3 2 . 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 . 6 7 1 0 0 0 . 1 5 5 6 0 0 0 . 0 6 2 0 . 9 7 7 4 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 . Aroma displays are not selling as forecasted – why? Yes Aroma Launch ? Measurements – Volume: daily shipment reports by customer – Shares by product and customer: Weekly /Monthly Nielsen data – Sales Fundamentals by product and customer: Weekly /Monthly Nielsen data – Budgets: actuals versus mitments – Value contribution (Brand/Product/Country): monthly Brand Profit Estimates (BPEs) 測(cè)量 成交量：每天裝運(yùn)報(bào)告 股份公司的產(chǎn)品和客戶：每周 /每月尼爾森數(shù)據(jù) 銷售基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)品和客戶：每周 /每月尼爾森數(shù)據(jù) 預(yù)算：實(shí)銀兩承諾 企業(yè)價(jià)值貢獻(xiàn)（品牌 /產(chǎn)品 /國(guó)家） ：每月的品牌利潤(rùn)估計(jì)（ bpes Shares Tracking HAND DISH CLEANER. TOTAL SWEDEN VOLUME SHARE JAN02 FEB02 MAR02 APR02 MAY02 JUN02 JUL02 AUG02 MARKET (MSU) 79 72 95 83 74 95 76 78 Versus YrAgo % 3 1 2 10 2 4 1 3 PROCTERGAMBLE. YES. YES LI CON APPLE. YES LI CON FLORAL BREEZE. YES LI CON LEMON. YES LI CON OTHER. GRUMME. VIPS. ICA. ALL OTHER BRAND. SKONA. KF. ANGLAMARK. BLA VIT. NOPA. . Aroma is cannibalizing as expected. Yes Aroma Launch ? Measurements – Volume: daily shipment reports by customer – Shares by product and customer: Weekly /Monthly Nielsen data – Sales Fundamentals by product and customer: Weekly /Monthly Nielsen data – Budgets: actuals versus mitments – Value contribution (Brand/Product/Country): monthly Brand Profit Estimates (BPEs) 測(cè)量 成交量：每天裝運(yùn)報(bào)告 股份公司的產(chǎn)品和客戶：每周 /每月尼爾森數(shù)據(jù) 銷售基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)品和客戶：每周 /每月尼爾森數(shù)據(jù) 預(yù)算：實(shí)銀兩承諾 企業(yè)價(jià)值貢獻(xiàn)（品牌 /產(chǎn)品 /國(guó)家） ：每月的品牌利潤(rùn)估計(jì)（ bpes Sales Fundamentals Tracking … and also display WD, feature share, shelf share, etc. YES AROMA APPLE Price Per Unit Without Promo (SFT) P12M P6M nov dec jan vs 196。 NGLAMARK TOTAL SWEDEN AXFOOD TOTAL 100% AXFOOD FRANCHISE 97% DD DISCOUNT 99% VIVO STOCKHOLM 102% BERGENDAHL DETALJIST 102% . Aroma has high shares where displayed A note on petition ? Competitive Response Modeling – Expected petitive response – Sequence of actions + their NPVs determine optimal strategy – 競(jìng)爭(zhēng)回應(yīng)建模 預(yù)期競(jìng)爭(zhēng)反應(yīng)的行動(dòng)順序 +他們 npvs確定最佳戰(zhàn)略 ? Which games will we play? – . always match petition’s promotion depth – . never do instore coupons ? 哪些游戲我們可以玩？ 例如：比賽的深入推廣 例如：在店內(nèi)消費(fèi)券 Possible Explanations ? Consumer value equation? – Is price premium too high? Did we overestimate demand for Aroma products? – most likely OK。場(chǎng)外采取高的地方派發(fā) +回購(gòu)利率高企 ? Organizational capability – Do we have enough sales rep coverage? Does Yes have priority in sales cycle? – yes, but many store owners are rejecting – 組織能力 我們是否有足夠的推銷員覆蓋？確實(shí)是有優(yōu)先銷售周期？ 是的，但許多店家都拒絕 ? Commercial strategy – is trade margin remended too low? Is value for customer not clearly defined? – 商業(yè)戰(zhàn)略 是交易保證金推薦太低呢？是價(jià)值，為用戶沒(méi)有明確界定呢？ Possible explanation: store owners not clear on added value – do not wish to replace products, do not have more space in store for more products, and do not want plexity of more codes in system 解釋：店家并不清晰附加值 不想取代產(chǎn)品，沒(méi)有更多的空間儲(chǔ)存更多的產(chǎn)品，以及不想復(fù)雜的多碼系統(tǒng) Yes Aroma Launch ? Measurements – Volume: daily shipment reports by customer – Shares by product and customer: Weekly /Monthly Nielsen data – Sales Fundamentals by product and customer: Weekly /Monthly Nielsen data – Budgets: actuals versus mitments – Value contribution (Brand/Product/Country): monthly Brand Profit Estimates (BPEs) – 測(cè)量 成交量：每天裝運(yùn)報(bào)告 股份公司的產(chǎn)品和客戶：每周 /每月尼爾森數(shù)據(jù) 銷售基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)品和客戶：每周 /每月尼爾森數(shù)據(jù) 預(yù)算：實(shí)銀兩承諾 企業(yè)價(jià)值貢獻(xiàn)（品牌 /產(chǎn)品 /國(guó)家） ：每月的品牌利潤(rùn)估計(jì)（ bpes ） ? how do we reflect new forecast and what do we do? ? 我們應(yīng)該如何反映新的預(yù)測(cè)和我們?cè)撟鍪裁矗? Budget Tracking PROCTER GAMBLE NORDIC Budget Control Total MDA* SPENT BUD ACT COM SPENT vs BUD (MUSD) (MUSD) (MUSD) (MUSD) (%) Yes/Fairy HD 100 18 18 35 35% Yes/Fairy ADW 100 28 28 55 55% Febreze 100 46 46 93 93% Swiffer 100 64 64 128 128% Total HOME 400 156 156 311 45% Pringles 100 23 23 46 46% ? Critical part in decision whether to continue strategy ? Launch based on tight economics ($/ml)– do we cut budgets or increase them if volumes are not ing in? how sensitive is the NPV? ? Expect front spending during launch, but possibilities of cutting Q4 support FINANCIAL TRACKING Brand Profit Estimates Reconciliations ? explain difference vs. estimate by volume, mix effect, budgets, exchange rates, and trade terms ? available by product and country ? consolidated across GBUs and MDOs in SAP R/3 to make our quarterly report to Wall Street $M $ / ml Delta %