【正文】 e in demand in the beginning of a downturn market. If the market has changed for a while permits bottom out and then are not a good clue. 25China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents? Tracking Building Permits from Dept. of Commerce. 26China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and AgentsNew Privately Owned Housing Unit Permits x 1,00027China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and AgentsWhat Kind of Markets Exist?The first market in this graph is a volatile one where large increases in prices occur and then large declines. 28China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents“Although this general data is interesting, how can it be applied to appraisal practice?”nWhen bined with data from other markets, cannot be used to discern local market conditions.nAppraisers can rely on these data sources to help identify a change in market conditions that COULD be happening locally. nThis is excellent data for underwriters who review appraisals throughout China.nIt is possible for a local market to be substantially different due to changes in employment, housing, or even school ratings. nThe local market data may be misleading if the statistics are not calculated on an ongoing basis. Relevance of General Data to Local Appraisers29China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and AgentsPart 3. Identifying the Market深入了解市場167。 In other words, the sellers did not have the money to close. Example—Negative Equity Breeds Foreclosure15China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and AgentsPart 2. General Market Data第二節(jié) : 市場數(shù)據(jù)Learning Objectivesn Define market data terms. 市場數(shù)據(jù)的定義n Identify sources of general market data for appraisers to research market n Define the weaknesses of applying general market data to a specific market. 市場數(shù)據(jù)中存在的缺陷n Illustrate how some markets function when there are significant supply and demand 16China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and AgentsContract Rate on 30Year FixedRate Home Mortgages貸款的浮動利率和固定利率 167。 The broker turned down the listing because the sellers did not have any more money. 167。 The broker thinks it will sell for ￥ 345,000 in this market.167。 In a declining market, an accurate value opinion today may not be valid tomorrow. Example—Chasing the Value Down the Hill12China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agentsn If there is negative equity, selling the property and paying off the mortgage may not be an option.n There is an old real estate axiom, “Negative equity breeds foreclosure.”n The only option may be to hold the property as long as possible and then allow a foreclosure.n Declining values bring to light many problems that are otherwise hidden by appreciation.n Even if the broker can sell the property for more than the mortgage amount, there may not be a payday. See Example.Negative Equity13China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Example—Negative Equity Breeds Foreclosure167。 The property was never priced within this petitive market. Example—Chasing the Value Down the Hill11China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents167。 The seller aggressively lowered the price by .25% each month.167。 The subject is in a market where prices are falling by about 3% per year. 167。 It is natural to overvalue a property.高估是正常的167。 Any previous plaint about overvaluing is diminished by its current worth. 167。 In this market, values are increasing at 10% per year.167。 It is also mon for appraisers to be “fiven” when prices are increasing. See Example.當價格上升時 , 估價師的錯誤經(jīng)常被掩蓋 . 見下一案例 When a Market Is Appreciating Rapidly市場快速上升時8China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents167。 It is more difficult to overvalue a property.很難不高估房地產(chǎn)的價值167。 Reconcile the mixed messages. 綜合考慮各類信息167。 Recognize economic problems when they occur.及時發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟中存在的問題167。 Use a bination of tools (old and new)同時使用各種工具 (新 , 舊 )167。 Appraisers study historical data to support current values.通過研究歷史數(shù)據(jù) , 研究當前的價值 167。 Defines the terms 定義167。1China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and AgentsAppraisal of Residential RealEstate in Declining Markets市場下跌時 , 如何評估住宅房地產(chǎn)主講人 : Mark Rattermann, MAI, SRA聯(lián)系方式 2China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and AgentsSeminar Learning Objectives主要內(nèi)容n Recognize general sources of market information that may give indications of market n Recognize a decline in a local market when it 市場出現(xiàn)的下跌趨勢n Measure the value losses in local n Apply the measured rate of change in the analysis of real estate using the cost approach, ine capitalization approach, and sales parison , 收益法 , 市場比較法分析房地產(chǎn)時 , 如何考慮價值的變化n Illustrate the tools necessary to show your clients the results of the research and analysis (numeric and graphic).給客戶演示研究和分析結(jié)果的工具 (數(shù)字和圖表 )n Apply various methods to recognize and adjust for market 用不同