麥肯錫對(duì)中國(guó)汽車的新視角-展示頁(yè)
2025-07-07 22:16本頁(yè)面
【正文】 og strategy for those Western carmakers that are willing to take the first steps now.Notes:Paul Gao is an associate principal in McKinsey 抯 Shanghai office.。 and BMW has announced that it is discussing with Brilliance China Automotive the possibility that the Chinese pany might assemble its 3series and 5series models in China.What is more, these global carmakers are planning, for the first time, to introduce new models and upgrades in China within months of their launch in more mature markets. This development will surely end the reign of the VW Santana, a 1970sera model that has long been out of production elsewhere but, offered without even a facelift for over 15 years, is China 抯 bestselling car. China抯 entry into the WTO will cut import tariffs drastically, heightening pressure on local producers (Exhibit 3). It will also allow global carmakers to own businesses in which they have unmatchable advantages: sales, service, and distribution, as well as loan services to car buyers—services that are sure to be wele in a market where personal credit is scarce.4 / 10For global brands, the strategic issue is no longer whether to enter the market or how to pete with Chinese panies but rather securing or consolidating profitable market share. For Chinese automakers, this means that their ambitions will increasingly depend on the strategies of those global panies.THE NEED FOR AN ASSETLIGHT STRATEGYCompeting in China involves big money: a capital investment of $ billion for GM 抯 Shanghai plant alone, for example, as well as $ billion for the two facilities of VW 抯 joint ventures. Thanks to protection of the industry, this investment has largely paid off: with tariffs ranging from 80 to 100 percent, models bear price tags up to 150 percent higher than those in the United States and Europe, allowing successful joint ventures in China to enjoy levels of profitability not seen anywhere else. For each Honda Accord, to give one example, Honda 抯 Guangzhou joint venture makes over $3,000 in profit, three times the profit for a parable US model.But greater petition is already squeezing those margins. Even with technology upgrades, the list price of the standard Santana fell by 25 percent, to 115,000 ren min bi ($13,850), in the five years up to October 2022. As tariffs fall, so will prices. Meanwhile, sales and marketing costs will rise in a more petitive market, and more frequent model upgrades mean that heavier investment will constantly be needed to retool assembly plants.This scenario—global panies stuck on a directinvestment treadmill as financial returns bee more uncertain—has been played out in much of the world. China, which almost alone among new markets has its own very large auto industry, offers a point of departure. For the global carmakers, pursuing an assetlight strategy would involve contracting out the manufacture of vehicles to Chineseowned production panies. If they can meet this demand for production, as 5 / 10Chinese firms have done in other industries, their global partners would reap a number of advantages.First, the global carmakers would retain the continuing advantages of Chinese production: the ability to overe whatever nontariff barriers to imports (such as quotas and licensing restrictions) survive China 抯 entry into the WTO, as well as cheaper labor, reduced freight, and localgovernment concessions. And the global panies would gain these advantages with lower financial risk than they would bear if they tried to produce cars themselves.Second, there are the direct benefits of contracting out. Global automakers in China could employ up to 40 percent less capital, which promises a corresponding 60 percent increase in their return on capital. Alternatively, contracting out would free up funds that could be concentrated on the highervalue skills of product development and design, and sales and marketing. It would also enable global panies to pursue those parts of China 抯 embryonic aftersales market—retail financing, leasing, servicing, repairs, spare parts, and rentals—open to them after China 抯 WTO entry. In developed markets, these activities generate 57 pe
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