【正文】 ry of TrackIntersect, then founds the Lootive Production System accident–causing model and introduces the safety influence factors in thorough and detailed analysis. After following the principle and method about founding index system, the paper establishes the safety assessment index system of Lootive Production System from management, people, equipment, and environment by consulting experts. This index system sets up with qualitative and quantitative methods to calculate the weight of every index. The index system reflects the real status of Lootive Production System. On the basis of prehensive evaluation, which adopts fuzzy prehensive analysis method, founds Lootive Production System evaluation model and brings fuzzy characteristic quantity of safety grade into dealing with the assessment result. At last, the”CSR CHENGDU .”as a example ,this paper apples the fuzzy prehensive evaluation model,carries on the assessment of evaluation status and acquires the safety grades of the pany. The evaluation result is proved that the index system models are feasible and available. Key words: Machinery industry； Lootive Production System； Index System； Fuzzy prehensive analysis method； Evaluation level 目 錄 第一章 緒論 ................................................................................................................. 1 機械行業(yè)的安全現(xiàn)狀 ...................................................................................... 1 高速列車生產(chǎn)安全現(xiàn)狀 ................................................................................. 1 機車生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)中安全管理及整體機械行業(yè)安全管理現(xiàn)狀 ......................... 2 、機械行業(yè)中安全評價的國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 ................................................... 3 國外研究現(xiàn)狀 ........................................................................................ 3 國內(nèi)研究現(xiàn)狀 ....................................................................................... 4 課題研究內(nèi)容 .................................................................................................. 5 研究的指導思想和方法 .................................................................................. 6 指導思想 ................................................................................................ 6 研究方法 ................................................................................................ 6 第二章 機 車生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)安全性影響因素分析 ............................................................. 7 機械工業(yè)安全生產(chǎn)的概念 ............................................................................. 7 機車生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的事故因素 ............................................................................. 7 機車生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)事 故致因模型 ......................................................................... 9 軌跡交叉論的出現(xiàn) [8] ............................................................................. 9 軌跡交叉理論的原理 ........................................................................... 9 機車生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)事故致因模型 .............................................................. 10 第三章 機車生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)安全評價指標體系建立 ....................................................... 13 3. 1 指標和指標體系的含義 ............................................................................... 13 指標的含義 .......................................................................................... 13 3. 1. 2 指標體系的含義 ................................................................................ 13 3. ....................................................................... 14 3. 2. 1 指標體系構(gòu)建原則 ............................................................................ 14 3. 2. 2 指標體系建立原則之間的關系 ........................................................ 15 建立指標體系 ................................................................................................ 17 指標體系的分析及說明 ................................................................................ 18 安全管理因素分析說明 ...................................................................... 18 人員因素分析說明 .............................................................................. 18 設備因素 .............................................................................................. 19 環(huán)境因素 .............................................................................................. 19 第四章 機車生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)安全評價方法 ....................................................................... 21 綜合評價方法及選擇 .................................................................................... 21 綜合評價方法分析 .............................................................................. 21 評定方法的確立 .................................................................................. 23 指標權(quán)重分配 [7] [12] ........................................................................................ 24 準則層的權(quán)重 ...................................................................................... 24 安全管理指標層權(quán)重 .......................................................................... 25 人為因素指標層權(quán)重 .......................................................................... 26 設備因素指 標層權(quán)重 .......................................................................... 26 環(huán)境因素指標層權(quán)重 .......................................................................... 27 機車生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)模糊綜合評價模型建立 ........................................................ 27 實例計算分析 ................................................................................................ 32 南車成都機車車輛有限公司的概況 .................................................. 32 評價模型的應用 .................................................................................. 33 運用模糊綜合分析法的優(yōu)點及不足 ............................................................ 36 評價方法的優(yōu)點 .................................................................................. 36 評價方法的不足 .................................................................................. 37 第五章 結(jié)論 ..............................