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D a i ly Pr o f i t (美元) 1 583. 88 2 544. 13 3 511. 28 4 374. 44 5 467. 83 6 409. 95 7 468. 34 8 594. 87 9 521. 91 10 594. 72 均值: ,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差: 終態(tài)仿真系統(tǒng)的置信區(qū)間 Simulation with Arena, 4th ed. Chapter 6 – Stat. Output Analysis Terminating Simulations Half Width, Number of Replications ? Prefer smaller confidence intervals — precision ? Notation: ? Confidence interval: ? Halfwidth = ? Can’t control t or s ? Must increase n — how much? Want this to be “small,” say h where h is prespecified ,1 ??? ?? nsth n ?半長 % 7 ?誤差 Simulation with Arena, 4th ed. Chapter 6 – Stat. Output Analysis Terminating Simulations Half Width, Number of Replications (cont’d.) ? Set halfwidth = h, solve for ? Not really solved for n (t, s depend on n) ? Approximation: ? Replace t by z, corresponding normal critical value ? Pretend that current s will ho