【正文】 。他指出 ,潛在的收購(gòu)方可 能可以 獲取 到 目標(biāo)公司 其它市場(chǎng)參與者不能獲取的信息 。如果必要的信息不可用 ,Rool(1986)認(rèn)為 潛在的收購(gòu)公司可能會(huì)被迫延遲或中斷它的計(jì)劃 ,盡管外國(guó)公司似乎是一個(gè) 非常不錯(cuò) 的目標(biāo)。 信息不對(duì)稱。相反 ,還有其他的變數(shù) ,經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)抑制跨境合并。 1． 2 不利的并購(gòu)因素 到目前為止討論的因素，一般傾向于鼓勵(lì)企業(yè)進(jìn)行跨境并購(gòu)。 并購(gòu) 技術(shù)和人力資源的培養(yǎng) 如果一個(gè)公司 的 有效競(jìng)爭(zhēng) 所 必要科技水平落后于其行業(yè)水平 ,而且它 不能或不愿 去獲取 并發(fā)展它 需要的技術(shù) 和 研究 ,那么它可能試圖 并購(gòu)那些技術(shù)更加先進(jìn)的 外國(guó)公司。 本國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)條件 收購(gòu)公司在祖國(guó)擁有的 良好的周期性條件 應(yīng)該作為一種減少需求和降低多樣化水平的手段來 促進(jìn)跨國(guó)并購(gòu)。 只有這樣它才能 嘗試確定國(guó) 家、行業(yè)、企業(yè)內(nèi)的特定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 多樣化 我國(guó)企業(yè)跨國(guó)并購(gòu)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析及防范 以 中國(guó)移動(dòng)并購(gòu)巴科泰爾 為例 6 這個(gè)爭(zhēng)論是基于實(shí)證的觀察 , 在不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的哪怕同一個(gè)行業(yè)里， 協(xié)方差的回報(bào) 也 可能是比在一個(gè)單一的經(jīng)濟(jì) 環(huán)境下小 。然而 , Harris和 Ravenscraft(1991)提出了與 Goldberg相反的 實(shí)證 證據(jù)。她發(fā)現(xiàn) 美元的貶值 降低了 在美國(guó)的 外商直接投資。除此之外 ,他們淡化 了跨國(guó) 收購(gòu)和匯率制度 之間的關(guān)系 ,認(rèn)為資本流動(dòng) 的提高 導(dǎo)致平等 和貼現(xiàn)率 的國(guó)際投資回報(bào)。例如 ,Froot和 Stein (1991)指出 ,盡管并購(gòu)活動(dòng)與匯率有一定的關(guān)系 ,但是根據(jù)他們?cè)诿绹?guó)的同行顯示， 沒有證據(jù) 能證明 人民幣匯率的變動(dòng) 能 提高 跨國(guó)收購(gòu) 地位。 目前 和 預(yù)測(cè)未來外匯匯率的影響 本國(guó) 貨幣 相當(dāng)于收購(gòu)價(jià)格 , 收購(gòu)公司應(yīng)累算的未來現(xiàn) 金流量的現(xiàn)值 ,因此 ,在任何一個(gè)特定情況 的主導(dǎo)作用是 實(shí)證研究的問題。 的 并購(gòu) 因素 雖然有很多有利于 并購(gòu) 活動(dòng) 的因素 ,我們 把 關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn) 放 在那些 可能 影響 美國(guó)和歐盟之間 跨國(guó)并購(gòu)的 那些因素 。 下面的討論調(diào)查的第一次檢查有利獲取變量（即變量出現(xiàn)影響該公司的有關(guān)跨境交易）的這些因素的取樣，然后是不利的 因素取樣 。然而 ,她警告說 ,勞動(dòng)力問題 ,設(shè)施 問題 ,還有 社會(huì)和技術(shù)差異 等等都 可能暴露 公司新的危機(jī) 。第二， 獲得支撐的產(chǎn)品 。 therefore, the dominant effect in any particular case is ultimately an empirical question. Existing studies, predictably, arrive at different conclusions concerning the role of exchange rates. For example, Froot and Stein (1991) propose that, while there is a relationship between the exchange rates and acquisition activity, there is no evidence that a change in the exchange rate improves the position of foreign acquirers relative to their US counterparts. They contend that when the dollar 我國(guó)企業(yè)跨國(guó)并購(gòu)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析及防范 以 中國(guó)移動(dòng)并購(gòu)巴科泰爾 為例 2 depreciates, the US bees a cheaper place for any firm to do business — foreign or domestic. In addition, they downplay the relationship between foreign acquisitions and exchange rates, arguing that improved capital mobility leads to equalized, riskadjusted returns on international investments. Goldberg (1993) reaches different conclusions. She finds that a depreciated US dollar reduces FDI in American businesses. She also contends that the reverse holds true, that is, if the dollar is strong, one observes an increase in foreign acquisition of US firms and a downward trend in US acquisitions of foreign firms. However, Harris and Ravenscraft (1991) present empirical evidence that is in contrast toGoldberg’s findings. In particular, they contend that a depreciated dollar increases the number of foreign acquisitions of US firms. . Diversification This argument is based on the empirical observation that the covariance of returns across different economies, even within the same industries, is likely to be smaller than within a single economy. It follows that the prospective acquiring pany must first decide on its desired levels of risk and return. Only then should it attempt to identify countries, industries, and specific firms that fall within its risk class. In addition, by acquiring ongoing foreign concerns, panies may be able to circumvent tariff and nontariff barriers, thereby improving their risk–return tradeoff by lowering the level of unsystematic . Economic conditions in the home country Favorable cyclical conditions in the acquiring firm’s home country should facilitate crossborder acquisitions as a means for increasing demand and levels of diversification. On the other hand, adverse economic conditions, such as a slump, recession, or capital market constraints, may cause prospective acquiring firms to concentrate on their domestic business while postponing any international strategic moves. . Acquisition of technological and human resources If a firm falls behind in the level of technological knowledge necessary to pete efficiently in its industry, and it is unable or unwilling to obtain the required technology through research and development, then it may attempt to acquire a foreign firm which is technologically more advanced. In their study, Cebenoyan et al. (1992) support this point, showing that the expansion into new markets through acquisitions allows firms to gain petitive advantage from the possession of specialized resources. 3 . Unfavorable acquisition factors The factors discussed thus far generally tend to encourage firms to make crossborder acquisitions. In contrast, there are other variables that often appear to restrain crossborder binations. These include informatio