class7技術(shù)-2風(fēng)險分析的方法體系-文庫吧資料
2025-03-12 06:13本頁面
【正文】 od ? Case study: ? To build A port, to pute the probability of A onceinacentury storm surge, but lack of Marine disasters statistics. And B is located in has not far from the detailed historical Marine meteorological statistical data, so can the registry data is used to calculate the probability of occurrence of storm surge, and pare with A risk of probability: ? Pa/Pb=ɡ (Ha/La)/(Hb/Lb) ? Among them: H significant wave height。 管理科學(xué)與工程專業(yè)適用 Theory of probability distribution is used to determine the probability of risk events ? Case study: ? Quality data are volatile, the factor is caused by many factors, and under the condition of normal production, the role of each factor is not obvious, and there is no one factor plays a leading role. So the fluctuations ? Normal distribution. ? In the construction of water conservancy projects, many hydrology workers study of river flood peak flow of randomness, found that most of the rivers obeyed ? P Ⅲ type distribution. 管理科學(xué)與工程專業(yè)適用 The probability of risk events using subjective probability analysis ? Case study: ? A project is divided into five standard, itemized bid, a bidder intends to participate in one of the bid, assume that a bidder the winning probability is different for each target, namely not the bidding risk is different. Bidders please four expert of bidding risk analysis, evaluation for which standard can bid more, less risky or miss the mark. ? Experts on the risk of not winning from small to large, the result of the discharge sequence as shown in table tendering decision makers for the experts39。s risk 管理科學(xué)與工程專業(yè)適用 管理科學(xué)與工程專業(yè)適用 Event tree analysis case The water system of the accident event tree analysis 管理科學(xué)與工程專業(yè)適用 Probability Methods ? Using the existing data analysis risk event probability distribution ? Theory of probability distribution is used to determine the probabili
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