農(nóng)大發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)講義-文庫(kù)吧資料
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【正文】 anning technique, the twogap theory was utilized by planners to analyze the independent desires of consumers/savers, investors, importers and exporters and to attempt to influence their desires in the light of domestic economic realities in conjunction with external economic circumstances 價(jià)格政策：匯率 exchange rate 稅收政策 tax incentives 利率政策 interest rate policies 37 兩缺口的調(diào)整和平衡 Balance of twogap ? 消極調(diào)整：減少投資彌補(bǔ)儲(chǔ)蓄缺口； negative adjustment 或減少進(jìn)口（進(jìn)口替代）彌補(bǔ)外匯缺口 ? 平衡兩缺口的積極行動(dòng)：引進(jìn)外資 positive adjustment ? 效應(yīng)：供給 進(jìn)口資源不需增加出口支付減輕外匯壓力 需求 投資不需國(guó)內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄提供，減輕儲(chǔ)蓄壓力 Effects: supply and demand ? 長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)：助長(zhǎng)出口、提高儲(chǔ)蓄、增強(qiáng)自我發(fā)展 Longterm impacts 38 （八）進(jìn)口替代、出口促進(jìn)及幼稚工業(yè)論： ISI, Export Promotion and Infant Industry 普雷維什 辛格假說(shuō) , Raoul Prebisch’ s and Hans Singer, PrebischSinger Hypothesis, 1950 中心 外圍的結(jié)構(gòu)分析方法 Centerperiphery 中心：制成品生產(chǎn) center: finished products 外圍：初級(jí)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn) periphery: primary products 外圍國(guó)家初級(jí)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易條件不斷惡化 worsening terms of trade in periphery countries 外圍國(guó)家的社會(huì)基礎(chǔ)“特權(quán)消費(fèi)社會(huì)”同中心引進(jìn)的制度發(fā)生尖銳矛盾。主要著作：《當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題》，《經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃原理》，《經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論》，《發(fā)展計(jì)劃》，《經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的某些方面》，《國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序的演變》，《 18701913年的增長(zhǎng)波動(dòng)》，《劉易斯經(jīng)濟(jì)論文選》等 。 1982年任美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)會(huì)會(huì)長(zhǎng)。 1937年獲倫敦經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院士學(xué)位， 1938至 1948年在該校任教，在 40年代早期先后從曼徹斯特大學(xué)和倫敦大學(xué)獲碩士學(xué)位和博士學(xué)位。阿瑟 發(fā)展極的“擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)”通過(guò)技術(shù)、管理、資本、信息等載體把增長(zhǎng)的勢(shì)頭從發(fā)展極向周邊地區(qū)擴(kuò)散，或從一個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)向另一個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)擴(kuò)散。 Savings 23 ? 意義 Implication 規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效益：成本降低；外在經(jīng)濟(jì) The Economies of Scale: internal (more efficient division of labor within a firm) and external (crossfertilization amongst firms in an industry) ? 不足 Failure failed to replicate the European success story in the Third World 過(guò)分強(qiáng)調(diào)工業(yè)化和資本的作用 investment is not the only ponent, . human resources 社會(huì)分?jǐn)傎Y本并非都是不可分的 questions of assumptions 大規(guī)模投資不切合實(shí)際 ignored questions of ownership of capital imports from the West 忽略了增長(zhǎng)中的分配問(wèn)題 ignored question of distribution of valueadded generated in the growth process Ulterior political and ideological motives 24 （四）涓流機(jī)制與不平衡增長(zhǎng)理論 The trickledown Theory and Western Capitalism Our subject matter is growth, not distribution. Lewis, 1955 1. 不公平有利于投資和增長(zhǎng) 因?yàn)椋焊挥惺故杖氪蟛糠钟糜趦?chǔ)蓄和投資 窮人的收入多用于消費(fèi) 儲(chǔ)蓄和投資有利于增長(zhǎng) 增長(zhǎng)使收入通過(guò)市場(chǎng)機(jī)制下滲 Accelerated economic growth would filter down and spread across, bringing the benefits of capitalist growth to the poorer segment of developing societies. 25 集中投資于有最多聯(lián)系效應(yīng)的產(chǎn)業(yè) 優(yōu)勢(shì)：通過(guò)外部經(jīng)濟(jì)和聯(lián)系效應(yīng)創(chuàng)造投資機(jī)會(huì) 所以：加強(qiáng)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部的聯(lián)系；增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)的形成 Interlink among industries, Growth Poles 收入差距：增加、持平、下降 扶貧只是發(fā)展框架中很不受重視的一部分，資源稟賦也沒(méi)有得到考慮，節(jié)約勞動(dòng)的進(jìn)口替代技術(shù)被推崇 Relegated poverty alleviation to the bottom of the development agenda and with total disregard of the inherent factorendowments of LDCs, encourages laborsaving import substitution industrialization (ISI) technologies. 26 Disenchantment with the ‘ Trickledown’ Theory Empirical evidence from developing countries: Western economic development theory was not working as expected. the gap widening between the first and third world domestic inequality between the rich and poor within developing countries Four major signs of concern about it: rural exodus and the emergence of informal sectors mushroomed around overcrowded, subhuman settlements in shantytowns and slums worsening unemployment problems in the wake of capitalintensive industrialization increasing poverty and social injustice genderbias of Western mainstream theories of development 27 增長(zhǎng)極的形成（增長(zhǎng)極理論）Growth Pole 弗朗索瓦 ?佩爾魯克斯 在不同時(shí)期，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的勢(shì)頭不會(huì)在所有地區(qū)和部門同時(shí)出現(xiàn)，而是集中在某些具有創(chuàng)新能力的行業(yè)和主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門，而這些部門和行業(yè)通常集聚在大城市中心，從而形成發(fā)展極。 15 向成熟推進(jìn)階段 the drive to maturity 主導(dǎo)部門：鋼、新式船艦、化學(xué)品及現(xiàn)代工作母機(jī)等 leading sectors: steel, shipboard, chemical products, master machine 人均收入持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，技術(shù)不斷改進(jìn) persisting increase of ine, improvement of technology 經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)：農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力比例從 40%降到 20% economic structure 時(shí)期：發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家經(jīng)過(guò) 40多年；一些發(fā)展中國(guó)家， 20世紀(jì)60年代進(jìn)入 16 群眾性高額消費(fèi)階段 the stage of mass consumption 主導(dǎo)部門：耐用消費(fèi)品和服務(wù)業(yè)方面 durables 資源結(jié)構(gòu)：日益增大的資源用來(lái)生產(chǎn)耐用消費(fèi)品和勞務(wù)；技術(shù)工人在勞動(dòng)中的比率、城市居民在總?cè)丝谥械谋嚷噬仙?；供社?huì)福利及保障的資源增大 resource structures 時(shí)期：美國(guó)始于 191319
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