【正文】 em. ? Planning fallacy – the tendency to underestimate taskpletion times.[38] ? Postpurchase rationalization – the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value. ? Proinnovation bias – the tendency to reflect a personal bias towards an invention/innovation, while often failing to identify limitations and weaknesses or address the possibility of failure. ? Pseudocertainty effect – the tendency to make riskaverse choices if the expected oute is positive, but make riskseeking choices to avoid negative outes.[51] Decisionmaking, belief and behavioral biases (7/8) ? Reactance – the urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice (see also Reverse psychology). ? Reactive devaluation – devaluing proposals that are no longer hypothetical or purportedly originated with an adversary. ? Recency bias – a cognitive bias that results from disproportionate salience attributed to recent stimuli or observations – the tendency to weigh recent events more than earlier events (see also peakend rule, recency effect). ? Recency illusion – the illusion that a phenomenon, typically a word or language usage, that one has just begun to notice is a recent innovation (see also frequency illusion). ? Restraint bias – the tendency to overestimate one39。s own strong partisan views. ? Hothand fallacy The hothand fallacy (also known as the hot hand phenomenon or hot hand) is the fallacious belief that a person who has experienced success has a greater chance of further success in additional attempts ? Hyperbolic discounting – the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, where the tendency increases the closer to the present both payoffs are.[34] Also known as current moment bias, presentbias, and related to Dynamic inconsistency. ? Illusion of control – the tendency to overestimate one39。s fallacy – the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality they are unchanged. Results from an erroneous conceptualization of the law of large numbers. For example, I39。 causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future oute.[28] ? Forer effect or Barnum effect – the observation that individuals will give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. This effect can provide a partial explanation for the widespread acceptance of some beliefs and practices, such as astrology, fortune telling, graphology, and some types of personality tests. ? Framing effect – drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how or by whom that information is presented. ? Frequency illusion – the illusion in which a word, a name or other thing that has recently e to one39。s ability to think about it from a lessinformed perspective. ? Decoy effect – preferences change when there is a third option that is asymmetrically dominated ? Denomination effect – the tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts (. coins) rather than large amounts (. bills).[22] ? Distinction bias – the tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately.[23] ? Duration neglect – the neglect of the duration of an episode in determining its value Decisionmaking, belief and behavioral biases (3/8) ? Empathy gap – the tendency to underestimate the influence or strength of feelings, in either oneself or others. ? Endowment effect – the fact that people often demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it.[24] ? Essentialism – categorizing people and things according to their essential nature, in spite of variations.[25] ? Exaggerated expectation – based on the estimates, realworld evidence turns out to be less extreme than our expectations (conditionally inverse of the conservatism bias).[16][26] ? Experimenter39。s choices as better than they actually were.[13] ? Clustering illusion – the tendency to overexpect small runs, streaks or clusters in large samples of random data ? Confirmation bias – the tendency to search for or interpret information or memories in a way that confirms one39。s environment and to neglect relevant data, when making judgments of a correlation or association. ? Availability heuristic – the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater availability in memory, which can be influenced by how recent the memories are, or how unusual or emotionally charged they may be. ? Availability cascade – a selfreinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse (or repeat something long enough and it will bee true). ? Backfire effect – when people react to disconfirming evidence by strengthening their beliefs.[9] ? Bandwagon effect – the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink and herd behavior. ? Base rate fallacy or base rate neglect – the tendency to base judgments on specifics, ignoring general statistical information.[10] ? Belief bias – an effect where someone39。 ? 期望效用理論為某些簡單、透明的決策問題提供了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)；但大多數(shù)現(xiàn)實(shí)生活中的決策問題是復(fù)雜的，需要更加豐富的行為模型。 ? （ 3） 決策權(quán)重傾向于高估小概率事件（ π(p) ＞ P ）和低估高概率事件（ π(p) ＜ P ），即很不可能的事情卻被賦予了很多的權(quán)重，很有可能的事情卻被賦予低的權(quán)重；在中間階段人們對概率的變化不敏感。 ? 決策權(quán)重函數(shù)具有以下特點(diǎn)： ? （ 1）決策權(quán)重不是概率，它并不符合概率公理。 決策權(quán)函數(shù) π(p) 是一個(gè)非線性函數(shù) ? “確定性效應(yīng)”導(dǎo)致權(quán)重函數(shù)的非線性。 ? 由不確定性到不確定性的變化帶給人感覺的效力較?。罕热?，由 p=至 p= 10%的變化可能是微不足道的。 ? 前景理論 (PT)則認(rèn)為：人們對概率的評價(jià)上存在“確定性效應(yīng)”。 A B C D 決策權(quán)函數(shù) (Decision Weight F